Nick又开始奉旨放风了，这篇帖子想传达的意思就是如果今年夏季通胀上涨的话美联储会继续观望，但如果就业放缓的话美联储可能会提前降息。所以全部反过来想的话，如果最终关税战没有让物价上涨不就可以降息了么，毕竟这两天密集的文章都在表达降晚了和关税未必导致通胀上涨的意思了。但再深入一层的话，近期物价没有上涨可能是之前因为关税战导致商家提前备货囤积库存导致的，等库存消耗完了仍然有上涨的可能。
听话听音，这其实还是在铺垫提前降息或者对冲市场普遍预计的9月降息预期了，毕竟还有三个月，时间有点久。市场需要一些强心针才能挺过这难熬的三个月。而且关税战实际上并没有持续太久，市场弹性有足够的冗余消化掉。
所以不管他只是给画大饼也好，还是提前透露也罢，这整体是一个传达降息可能提前的好消息。
If prices shoot up this summer, the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines for longer. Labor would have to convincingly sputter to prompt cuts.
But if an anticipated tariff-driven price punch turns out to be a damp squib, earlier cuts are possible.
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