The core of making money: how retail investors can quickly judge the market The market of the crypto market has logic to find, although it cannot be accurately guided, but the general direction and range can be completely determined Conditional logic is what I think is best for everyone! All rising and falling markets are the result of the convergence of conditions, with large conditions accumulating into large markets and phased conditions accumulating into phased markets. Bull or bear Judgment Binding Core: Macro conditions + narrative conditions + emotional conditions + technical conditions + on-chain conditions + celebrity conditions The above six conditions are the logical core of judging the big market, and the more conditions converge, the stronger the certainty, and vice versa 1. Macro conditions: Liquidity (interest rate hikes, interest rate cuts, ETFs, etc.), policy (project parties, exchanges, capital policies, etc.), U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar indexes, U.S. stock indicators 2. Narrative conditions: 1. EXTERNAL NARRATIVE: AI, METAVERSE, INTERNET OF THINGS, WEB3, RWA, ETC 2. Industry narratives: such as Ethereum narrative (technology and ecology), Bitcoin narrative (halving event, inscription concept promotion, etc.), the core path that can promote the development of the industry (technology + users). 3. Emotional conditions: Market retail investor sentiment: through the panic and greed index, the sentiment of various communities, KOL sentiment, and hot coin sentiment (the exchange is crazy to list hot coins OR will not be new for a long time) External media and retail sentiment: If the external media frequently reports on the wealth effect of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency circle, it is generally a phase, or the top stage of the bull market. Fourth, technical conditions 1. Small-cycle, large-cycle K-line trend, combined with several core indicators (MACD, BOLL, etc.) 5. On-chain conditions 1. The on-chain status of Bitcoin's medium- and long-term chips, such as whether medium- and long-term holders continue to increase or decrease, and other core on-chain indicators 2. If the holders of medium and large whales who enter the bear market reduce their holdings in batches in the bull market, the bulk growth of retail addresses is also one of the signals of the stage or bull top 6. Celebrity conditions 1. Celebrity remarks: OG in the industry at home and abroad, such as Sister Mu, Li Qiwei, Li Qiyuan Brothers, CZ, core analysts of large blockchain institutions, 2. Celebrity indicators: Jiushen, Jiang Zhuoer 60 days, rainbow chart, copycat index, and some indicators of foreign friends, etc *The bear market bottom refers to important condition 1: Bitcoin mining machine price Mainstream mining machines have been shut down one after another, and the currency price is close to the price of mainstream mining machines, and the current shutdown price is 18,000 to 20,000U *The bottom of the bear market refers to important condition 2: the state of the exchange Bad news from exchanges (policies, hacks, technology, etc.) The summary is as follows: Combine six conditions: 1. The favorable conditions, or the accumulation of expected conditions, are getting more and more right, so the big bull market is more and more certain. 2. There are fewer and fewer favorable conditions, and the expected conditions are gradually realized, generally at the end of the bull market. 3. The negative conditions are gradually increasing, and the negative conditions are expected to appear, which is generally to enter the bear market cycle. The same is true for the phased market, which needs to be combined with the recent positive or negative conditions to make a comprehensive judgment. For example: Tell us about this bull market and the current state of the market Technical conditions: The monthly line has been on an upward trend since January 2023, and it has been continuous positive for the last 5 months Macro conditions: Favorable conditions for ETFs are gradually being implemented, at the latest in March Narrative conditions: The Cancun upgrade ends around February, and Bitcoin halves in April Emotional conditions: The market has always been in the high range of the greed indicator, and it has lasted for a period of time, and the mood outside the market is not obvious On-chain conditions: the data has not changed much, Celebrity conditions: Some blockchain institutions OG judge callbacks Summary: The short-term phased benefits are landing one by one, the halving in April is the last, Brother Monkey personally thinks that before April, around March, in mid to late February, the market may have a wave of pullback, but since it is a bull market cycle, we must maintain long-term thinking, only buy not sell ideas, patience and wait for the last opportunity to make up for the position, remember that the real market is coming, it is not a day or two to end, whether it is a callback or a rise, it is most important to maintain patience. Welcome everyone to like and collect! I think this logic works for anyone!