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#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Q: In your trading rules, which red line must never be crossed?
The most important red line is not to lose all your own funds, or not to have a drawdown exceeding 50%.
A drawdown exceeding 50% means the price needs to rise 100% from the current level just to break even.
Not losing all your own funds is the most important rule; this means game over, you cannot participate in the market's subsequent movements. Even if your view is correct, or how much profit you could make based on your view, it will all be destroyed once your total capital is wiped out. Finally, invest only with "spare money".
This means that even if you lose this part of the funds, life can still go on 🤔
$BTC $ETH Nonfarm payrolls haven't started yet,
but the shorts are already getting wiped out.
The most dangerous thing isn't the pullback.
It's when the shorts start to collectively retreat.
They run faster than the data release.
When BTC lifts its head,
ETH gets excited.
High Beta altcoins like ZEC
directly show off:
"I'm not just rising, I'm taking off."
In the past, with rate hikes and high interest rates,
the market looked utterly hopeless.
Now that risk appetite is back,
short positions are as fragile as paper.
Either they're forcibly liquidated,
or they scare themselves into closing.
ETH naturally has more elasticity than BTC.
When BTC breaks key resistance,
ETH is like a compressed spring.
ZEC is even crazier,
outperforming the market during the short squeeze phase.
BTC rises 5%,
high Beta altcoins:
I rise so much you'll question your life.
The key now isn't guessing how much more ZEC can rise.
Look at the chain:
BTC breaks out → ETH follows → sentiment warms → shorts stop out → leverage chases the rally.
Once linked together,
rebound?
No, it's a short squeeze.
Shorts?
No, they're the fuel.
Shorts fear not the rise.
They fear that as prices rise,
they'll be forced to buy back their own shorts.
Buy? Add fuel to the rally.
Don't buy? Keep getting lifted out.
The market never follows the script.
When the trend truly starts,
the first thing to disappear isn't opportunity,
but the margin for error in counter-trend positions.
Just venting, don't get too hyped.
$ETH H $BTC
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Brothers, the ETF capital flow has already turned. The big cake $BTC spot ETF had a net inflow for nine consecutive days, accumulating over three billion USD, but starting from September 30th, it experienced net outflows for two consecutive days. On the $ETH side, it was even more straightforward, with net outflows for three consecutive days; the capital flow shifted from divergence to synchronized escape. The Coinbase report also pointed out that the recent profit-taking scale of the big cake has reached a yearly high, and spot demand has clearly slowed down.
But while capital is running out, the market is still rising. Why? Because the market is betting on a non-farm payroll surprise. On the evening of October 2nd, the data came out showing only an increase of 29,000 in non-farm payrolls, far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The big cake immediately surged to 87,000, rising more than 3% intraday. This wave is purely driven by macro expectations and completely disconnected from ETF outflows.
However, when the market calmed down, it realized that the 29,000 non-farm payroll increase is not a soft landing but a hard landing warning. The 4.2% unemployment rate combined with the employment cliff triggered recession fears that outweighed rate cut expectations. Profit-taking and panic selling hit together, causing the big cake to quickly fall from its high, wiping out today's gains.
The core contradiction now is very clear. ETFs are flowing out, spot demand is slowing, and the market briefly held up on non-farm payroll expectations. After the data was released, those expectations were fulfilled. If ETFs continue to flow out, it will be hard to sustain this momentum. The macro data-driven rally surged hard in the first wave but has the worst sustainability. Don't chase highs, don't heavily bet on direction. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 @OKX星球 $SOL｜Bullish bias, pullback in place, can be referenced
4h RSI 52.7, mid-range; 1h RSI 47, mid-range, MACD trending down.
Observation: Pullback zone 120.03–120.64 (1h pullback zone) reached, current price within the zone.
Timing: Within pullback zone, suitable for reference (do not chase the rally).
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when the upper target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 123.74; break below 117.81 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
Summary: Bullish bias, pullback zone can be referenced, trade depending on invalidation.
$PEPE｜Bullish bias, has fallen out of observation zone
4h RSI 52.9, mid-range; 1h RSI 45.5, slightly low, MACD trending down.
Observation: Original pullback zone 0.0000044235–0.0000044647, current price has dropped out of zone, do not enter yet.
Timing: Out of zone, do not enter yet.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when the upper target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 0.000004751; break below 0.0000043114 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
Summary: Bullish structure remains, but out of observation zone, do not enter yet.
For analysis only, not advice or trading instruction.$SAND This position will play sideways here to eat fees, absolutely refusing to go downHello, friends, I am Chao Ge 🤝
👉 Is this $BTC whale going crazy killing longs?
BTC just dropped sharply from 87238 to 85155, and there are two reasons.
👆🏻 First: On the news front, although the non-farm payrolls were soft, Federal Reserve officials spoke hawkishly in the early morning, emphasizing that inflation remains resilient, cooling down rate cut expectations.
👆🏻 Second: ETF profit-taking, with a single-day net outflow of 148 million, ending nine consecutive days of net inflows, triggering long stop-loss orders directly. Technically, on the 1-hour chart, the price quickly fell below MA5 (86152) and MA10 (86175), MACD formed a death cross downward, and bearish momentum was released intensively.
🚩 My suggested night trading strategy:
The first support below is between 84500 and 85000, with core support at 83500 to 84000. Resistance above is between 86200 and 86500. For contract trading, lightly go long on a pullback to stabilize between 84500 and 85000, with a stop loss at 84000, targeting 85800 to 86200; short on a rebound near 86200, with a stop loss at 86800, targeting 85000.
Hold your spot position at the bottom and do not move; consider reducing positions only if it breaks below 84000. There are often spikes between midnight and 1 AM in the night session, so don’t chase shorts before sleep. The worst now is chasing highs and killing lows; control your hands and wait for the 4-hour MACD golden cross before acting.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The 30-year US Treasury yield stands above 5.6%, the highest since 2002, with macro headwinds persisting. Micron's earnings report is upcoming, with AI storage demand again in focus; US-Iran talks have resumed, but substantive concessions remain limited.
$BTC is quoted at 83,074, after hitting a high of 86,000 yesterday and then entering a high-level consolidation. The 80,000 level has shifted from resistance to support. Currently, watch the 85,000 defense line and 87,000 resistance: holding above suggests a target of 88,000-90,000; losing 85,000 means no chasing longs, wait for support near 83,000. Rate cut expectations fluctuate, ETF fund flows are uncertain, and 85,000 remains the key dividing line between bulls and bears.
$ETH is quoted at 2,660, showing a clear strengthening compared to earlier periods, with 2,700 forming the first short-term defense line. A 35% staking lock-up combined with reluctance to sell supports the price, but ETFs have not seen continuous net inflows, so relying solely on locked-up tokens to push prices up carries risks. Holding above 2,700 targets 2,800; a breakout looks toward 2,850-2,900; if it falls below, reduce positions and contract.
$ZEC is quoted at 1,392, still the strongest overall, with momentum undiminished after surging past 1,600. Key levels to watch are 1,550 for defense, 1,600 for contention, and 1,650 for breakout; holding above targets 1,650-1,700; breaking below 1,550 means no aggressive chasing, wait for support near 1,500.
Overall, BTC is defensive, ETH is consolidating, ZEC is short-squeezing, but the entire network’s high leverage leaves very little margin for error, and liquidity is thin over the weekend. Operationally, keep light spot positions, avoid 50x leverage, and set stop losses properly without holding through adverse moves Many people are struggling with whether Bitcoin's next market move will be up or down.
From the indicators, the daily RSI and MACD have already shown divergence.
MACD has also formed a daily death cross.
Yesterday, the daily chart closed with a high-volume inverted hammer bearish candle.
In the past, this pattern was basically a clear bearish signal,
but this time it reversed and went up.
However, I believe this upward move is nearing its end.
Intraday, around 8.68, the price showed a volume contraction pullback.
The lack of selling pressure volume indicates there will be another push upward.
Most likely, this will form a secondary high and create an M-top pattern.
The new high is estimated to be below 8.75K.
If the M-top plays out as expected,
the power of the daily divergence and death cross will be fully unleashed,
and the real wave two correction will officially begin.🧊 The non-farm payroll cooled down, so why didn't the coin price keep rising?
$BTC's data tonight gave the market a reason to catch its breath. The US added 29,000 jobs in September, below Reuters' expected 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Hiring isn't that fast, so the reason to continue raising interest rates is somewhat reduced, but that doesn't mean rates will be cut immediately. The quote at 22:45 was about 85,600, still below the evening level above 86,000. My understanding is that the news is somewhat positive, but the price hasn't responded as optimistically yet. We'll have to see if buyers are willing to keep buying; don't assume the direction is stable just by reading the headline.
$ETH also doesn't show signs of rushing upward. Near 23:00 it was around 2709, up only about 0.6% in the past week. Easing expectations can improve sentiment, but it still needs its own demand to catch up. Whether on-chain transactions, lending, and capital inflows can increase is more important than just a quick boost from macro news. If business and capital don't improve simultaneously, I wouldn't consider this rebound as a full market rally.
For $HYPE, we need to distinguish between platform trading activity and token price increase. It returned to around 90 in the evening, still down about 2.8% over the past week. Large volatility may bring more trades, but active trading doesn't necessarily mean more people are buying the coin. I'll watch if the platform can retain traders after the hype fades. A single night's trading can look impressive, but sustained income over several weeks better indicates whether the business has improved.#SEC Chairman Atkins stated that efforts will be made to clarify on-chain fundraising rules. This is a regulatory positive for the leading decentralized exchange UNI, but the current price is hesitating around 9.074. I judge that the short-term trend is still dominated by market divergence.
The contradiction lies here: both the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but the 24-hour trend shows a slight decline of 0.5%, with a high of 9.304 retreating and a low of 8.853, indicating that the bulls failed twice to break through; the trading volume of 14.392 million is relatively low, the funding rate of 0.0074% is almost neutral, and the open interest of 5.929 million tokens shows no significant increase or decrease. Although buyers have an advantage with a buy-sell ratio of 1.21, their willingness to chase higher prices is weak.
In the short term, one can place a long order at 8.965 with a stop loss at 8.842 and a target of 9.273; if the price first surges to 9.288 but encounters resistance and falls back, then lightly try short positions with a stop loss at 9.356 and a target of 9.012. Single position size should not exceed 5%, and exit immediately if the position is broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$UNI#SEC Chairman Atkins stated that efforts will be made to clarify on-chain fundraising rules
#SEC Chairman Atkins stated that efforts will be made to clarify on-chain fundraising rules $UNI Earnings report observers are actively discussing Micron's raised guidance and strengthening storage demand, with risk appetite warming but not yet transmitted to BSB. I judge that the short-term trend will mainly be consolidation. Looking at the market, the price is reported at 0.09948, down 1.9% in 24 hours, the high of 0.10234 failed to hold, the low of 0.09851 was quickly recovered. Both the one-hour and four-hour trends are upward, but still 12.7% below the four-hour high. The top ten buy orders are 689 versus 2847 sell orders, with a strength ratio of 0.24, indicating obvious selling pressure. The funding rate is 0.005%, bullish sentiment is moderate, open interest is 11.453 million, with no signs of panic selling. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 0.09867, with a stop loss at 0.09742 and a target of 0.10183; if volume breaks below the stop loss, exit and wait, keeping position size within 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BSB#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $BSB 我們來看一下比特幣的部分。 比特幣今天到了高點之後，有往下跌。這篇最重要的一句話先講：能止盈的，就一定要跑。 比特幣原本的計畫（留作參考）： ▷ 做多：83,000 跟 83,500 之間，當時現價可輕倉。 ▷ 止盈點：86,000。 ▷ 加碼點：81,000。 ▷ 止損點：78,000。 ▷ 現在的動作：能止盈就跑。 先把今天的經過講清楚，時間都是台灣時間、OKX 永續合約。中午 12 點那根 1 小時 K 就衝過 86,000，最高到 86,888；之後在 85,700～86,600 之間來回好幾個小時，都沒有跌回 85,700 以下。晚上 8 點半非農公布，那根 15 分鐘 K 最高摸到 87,239，是今天的最高點。接著 9 點半美股開盤又上衝到 87,111，沒有創新高；10 點之後開始往下，10 點 33 分左右跌破 86,000，11 點多一路到 85,100，截圖時在 85,200 附近。 所以今天這一段，價格有到我們說的止盈點位，也有往上多走了一千多點，最後又回到 86,000 下面。這就是為什麼這次要講得很直接：能止盈的，就一定要跑。 這篇只講到這裡，比特幣不另外給#财报观察员：Micron raises guidance, storage demand continues to strengthen, the current computing power narrative has limited impact on CL, I lean towards a bearish view. The 4-hour and 1-hour moving averages are synchronously pressing down, rebound highs are progressively lower, the risk of chasing longs is clearly high. Current price 90.99, down 1.4% in 24h, the high of 93.66 failed to hold, the low of 88.3 was tested twice without breaking, entering a short-term weak consolidation. The top ten order book buy/sell ratio is 0.66, selling pressure is heavy, funding rate at zero indicates neither longs nor shorts are willing to pay a premium, open interest at 369,000 contracts has not significantly decreased. Trading volume is 20.357 million, volume is average, rebound lacks support, inclined to short on rebounds. Strategy 1: Short at rebound to 91.86, stop loss at 93.42, target 88.64, risk-reward about 2:1. Strategy 2: If it breaks below 88.17 directly, lightly short, stop loss at 89.55, target 85.73. Position control within 20%, single loss no more than 1.5% of total capital, take profit in batches at target, do not hold losing positions.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$CL#财报观察员：Micron raises guidance, storage demand continues to strengthen
#财报观察员：Micron raises guidance, storage demand continues to strengthen $CL Position Update｜Big Brother Maji's total open position has reached $142 million! Slightly increased positions, bullish conviction remains full
The latest position changes are very clear:
‑ $BTC: Increased to 440 coins, 40X full position long, entry at 84627.80, unrealized profit +746,300, liquidation price raised to 66257.79, safety margin further expanded
‑ $ETH: Still holding a base position of 32,000 coins, 25X full position long, entry at 2683.08, unrealized profit +2,054,600, this part of Ethereum contributes the most elasticity to the entire portfolio
‑ $HYPE: Slightly increased to 190,000 coins, 10X full position long, continuing to maintain an aggressive position in the popular sector
Overall strategy remains unchanged:
BTC+ETH as the absolute main force, willing to continuously bear huge funding costs daily, not shaken out by interim volatility; then using a small portion of funds to speculate on sector Beta trends.
One detail worth noting:
He does not blindly increase leverage; instead, as he adds positions, he pushes the overall liquidation range lower and farther away, a strategy of holding large positions for trends and reserving buffers.
But risks are also on the table:
The $142 million full position long exposure is there; as long as a sudden liquidity crunch occurs, it will be very difficult for such a huge position to exit smoothly; no matter how thick the unrealized profit is, it does not mean he can rest easy.
In the end, big money competes not on how much short-term profit is made, but on whether it can orderly lock in gains before the market turns.Network usage growth only affects $ETH through fees and staking.
Ethereum hosts more stablecoins, assets, and applications, but this does not mechanically cause $ETH to rise proportionally. Usage growth primarily drives demand for transactions and data, some of which is paid in Gas and may impact burning; applications and users may also hold ETH as liquidity, collateral, or security assets. Meanwhile, fee reductions, improved L2 settlement efficiency, and meta-transaction mechanisms change how much ETH each activity requires. Value capture is a pathway, not an equation where more transactions equal higher price. To judge long-term logic, one should observe whether real users increase, the network's revenue structure, staking security demands, and whether applications can persist in an open environment. If activity relies solely on subsidies, fees barely return to the protocol, or assets remain controlled by centralized issuers, the activity's liveliness may not translate into $ETH demand. Optimism about $ETH is valid but must clarify through which mechanisms value is transmitted.
Therefore, observing $ETH requires not only monitoring on-chain transaction counts but also examining how much each activity type is willing to pay, whether usage is repeated, if open settlement is needed, and whether the protocol can convert income into security and scarcity. Brothers, I'm stunned, really stunned.
In the time it took to have a meal, my floating profit on the short position directly turned into a floating loss.
Previously, the floating profit had already reached 50%, 60%, and now it's directly a floating loss.
To be honest, I couldn't accept it for a moment. Actually, I thought this trade was almost a sure thing, but unexpectedly the manipulator came in hard and forcibly pushed the price up.
Yesterday when $CAP dropped to 0.0665, I didn't exit. I originally thought the downside space was completely open, aiming for 0.06.
But what a surprise, a big bullish candle directly pulled it back to 0.0824, with a high of 0.08423, precisely back to my entry price.
It's false to say I'm not upset.
The duck that was about to be caught flew away, really gave me a harsh lesson: in this market, taking profits is always right, securing gains is more important than anything.
Now my forced liquidation price is at 0.14698, so no risk of liquidation, but the psychological gap is even harder to bear than liquidation.
I still set my stop loss at 0.087 for this trade. If it really forcefully breaks through the previous high of 0.08888, then I'll admit my mistake and exit, definitely won't hold the position.
If the subsequent rebound is weak, I'll find a position to break even and close out, absolutely cannot let a profitable trade turn into a big loss.
Today's tuition fee hurts, but discipline is discipline: no adding capital, no holding losing positions, no all-in, daily public review.
$BTC
$ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% You place a sell order for tokenized US stocks on-chain, click confirm, and the execution price is 1% less than the price you saw. No one is taking advantage of you; the liquidity pool is just too shallow. 1. Assets have long been oversupplied Ondo's asset directory exceeds 430 items, Bitget alone has listed over 500 tokenized US stocks and ETFs, plus xStocks, bStocks, gStocks — basically, any stock you want to buy has a corresponding token. "Availability" has long ceased to be an issue. The problem starts the moment you place your order. 2. Once an order is placed, liquidity depth immediately reveals itself This year's risk research has shown: in many tokenized stock markets, a $10,000 order can have an average execution price 1% worse than expected simply because the order book is too thin. CryptoRank's July tests were even more straightforward: for the same $50,000 order, slippage across different platforms can vary from 45% to 58%. It's even worse after US stock market hours: order books are noticeably thinner after hours and on weekends, spreads widen, and large sell orders can temporarily crash prices off their peg. Even top products can't avoid this; Bitget's NVDA perpetual contract has liquidity depth only about 75% of its own Bitcoin spot market. 3. Why liquidity depth is scarce Traditional finance accounts are backed by central banks, primary market makers, and repo markets that create trillion-level buffers. On-chain liquidity depth is rented: once mining subsidies stop, it immediately evaporates. Dozens of L2s and cross-chain bridges further fragment what little depth there is. Large capital operates on a different calculation: for multi-million positions entering and exiting, slippage plus MEV grind away 1-2%, and RWA yields 4-5% annually.#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC This type of real-yield asset on-chain is causing the collateral narrative of MMT to be repriced. I tend to be cautiously bullish but strictly control position size. Looking at the market, the current price 0.1873 has risen 50.56% from the 4-hour low, with the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages both trending upward, and the longer-term structure is bullish; the 24h high/low of 0.1921/0.1837 forms a narrow range box, with a trading volume of only 503,000, a funding rate of 0.0050% which is mild, and an open interest of 8,697,000 coin-margined contracts. The top 10 buy/sell orders are 15,000 vs. 14,000, with the buy side slightly dominant. It remains in a strong consolidation before breaking above 0.1923. Strategy-wise, place long orders on a pullback to 0.1841, stop loss at 0.1793, target 0.1949; if volume increases and it breaks above 0.1923, you can lightly chase longs with a stop loss at 0.1871 and a target of 0.2017. Single trade risk should not exceed 1.5% of total capital; exit immediately if stop loss is hit.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$MMT#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $MMT $NEAR was hacked yesterday, with about $3.2 million in user assets stolen. The project team has promised full compensation. Dragged down by the news, NEAR quickly declined. A few days ago, when NEAR was still around 5.4, I posted that I had shifted part of my MEAR position to $ZAMA. Looking back now, that move was quite correct: although both pulled back simultaneously, NEAR's drop was significantly larger.
In the short term, both $NEAR and $ZEC have most likely reached a phase top. Especially $ZEC, whose daily oscillation range has already broken down, and high-level chips will need more time to be digested, so the recovery pace might be slow. However, this is only a short-term peak, not the end of the trend. After sufficient chip turnover, NEAR and ZEC still have the chance to start a second wave of rally. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Whale portfolio adjustments show divergence: $BTC is being reduced, $ETH is accumulating against the trend, and $XRP remains watchful
Crypto analyst Ali, citing Santiment data, reveals that during the past week’s market consolidation, significant cracks appeared in the movements of whales holding major cryptocurrencies.
For Bitcoin, whale addresses collectively reduced holdings by about 30,000 BTC, valued at approximately $2.52 billion, signaling phased profit-taking or risk reduction. Ethereum showed the opposite trend, with whales increasing holdings by about 60,000 ETH, worth around $162 million, clearly positioning against the trend. XRP whale holdings remained stable at about 3.9 billion tokens, showing no significant portfolio adjustments and staying in a wait-and-see mode.
Analysis suggests that the divergence of whale funds among BTC, ETH, and XRP reflects inconsistent outlooks on the market’s future. BTC reductions may indicate rising short-term caution, ETH accumulation could be a bet on ecosystem catalysts or relative value recovery, and XRP’s inactivity suggests waiting for clearer directional signals. If this divergence pattern continues, it may become a key indicator for the market’s search for a breakout direction.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The focus remains on $BTC and $ETH, with small coins just accompanying.
Big brother Maji's 161 million position seems diversified, but the real fate of the account is still decided by the two major mainstreams.
· BTC: 40x full position long, 546 coins, opened at 84548.90. The leverage is fierce, but the liquidation price is at 75542, clearly leaving enough buffer to cope with the long wicks and intense volatility commonly seen around non-farm payrolls.
· ETH: 25x full position long, 34,000 coins, the largest ballast in the portfolio and the main source of current floating profit. The liquidation line is at 2550, giving the market more room for oscillation and digestion.
· HYPE: Only a small part, more like an emotional trial position, not affecting the BTC and ETH dominated overall situation.
The core of this strategy is not to cast a wide net, but to heavily invest in the main lines, layer leverage, and use small positions to chase heat. When a big market move comes, the winning hand is always handed to BTC and ETH: one responsible for elasticity, the other supporting the base.
But it must be clear that 40x and 25x full positions still carry extremely high risk. Even if the liquidation price seems far away, under extreme liquidity conditions it can lose control instantly. He has backup positions to add, but ordinary people may not have the same tolerance, so don't blindly copy. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 "Big Brother Maji's 154 Million Snapshot: Mainstream Leading, HYPE Still Enduring"
Latest positions released, total exposure 154 million, bullish faith unchanged. No major reductions, no reversals, continuing to hold main profit positions, slightly reducing positions, firmly holding emotional targets.
$BTC: 525 coins, 40X full position long. Continuing slight volume reduction, unrealized profit +337,800 U. Entry at 84,548.60, liquidation price lowered to 72,421.25, safety buffer further expanded, still the pioneer of elasticity play.
$ETH: 33,000 coins, 25X full position long. Account's profit ace, unrealized profit +1,475,400 U. Entry at 2,678.32, well above cost, forced liquidation at 2,517.70, supporting the confidence of the entire large position.
$HYPE: 221,000 coins, 10X full position long. Still unrealized loss -306,300 U, no cut loss, only slight position reduction. Using lower leverage to isolate volatility, allowing the sector time to recover.
Those familiar with his strategy understand: during major macro windows, no back-and-forth swings; rather, hold onto mainstream positions that have already made profits, using unrealized gains to cover the time cost of smaller positions.
This layout is designed to let profits keep running: BTC and ETH reap enough dividends, becoming a solid safety cushion; HYPE is still enduring the emotional turning point, overall still betting. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Nonfarm payrolls froze! 29,000 smashed expectations, BTC bulls eyeing 90,000? US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, expected 90,000; unemployment rate 4.2%, higher than the expected 4.1%. The employment engine suddenly stalled, signaling economic cooling, weakening the Fed's excuse to maintain high pressure, and easing trades quickly heated up. The dollar retreated, US Treasury yields dipped, and risk assets got a breather.
On the BTC side, the price returned above 86,000, with sentiment clearly warming. Technically, first focus on the previous high of 86,914: if taken with volume, trend funds may chase in, bringing the 90,000 psychological level into range; if it’s a low-volume false breakout, a pullback to support is not unexpected. Macro gives the wind, the market gives the momentum, but position sizing and stop-loss remain lifesavers.
$BTC $ZEC $CORE #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Piper sharply cut Nike's target price. The number itself isn't earth-shattering, but it hits reality: consumption is retreating, while AI and tech leaders are still surging. In the same market, there's a split between hot and cold sectors; the K-shaped recovery is no longer just a macro term but a trading map.
Money has become smarter and scarcer. It doesn't spread out but concentrates on a few certainties. As a result, strong assets continue to attract capital, while weak assets lose liquidity. Don't expect a "flooding the mountain with water" style broad rally; that script is outdated. Leaders like BTC have consensus support at the bottom, so the tailwind remains; a bunch of altcoins without narratives or funds mostly rebound as a flight for survival, with a slow decline being the main theme. Aave supports tokenized US stock collateral borrowing of USDC, indicating that the boundaries of on-chain assets are being broken. SNDK, as a similar narrative target, shows a slightly warm short-term sentiment linkage but the market has not yet broken through; I tend to expect consolidation before a change. Current price is 1738, with a 24h slight drop of 0.2%, the high and low points 1806 and 1716 form a box range; trading volume is 526,000, relatively light, funding rate 0.0000% indicating neutrality, open interest at 47,000 unchanged, order book buy/sell ratio 1.12 slightly favors buyers, but 1-hour distance from high is -3.5%, 4-hour distance from low is 14.09%, upward momentum is marginally slowing. Strategy: lightly buy on a pullback to 1721, stop loss at 1704, target 1793; if volume breaks above 1809, then chase long, stop loss 1786, target 1846. Keep position within 10%, exit immediately if broken.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$SNDK#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $SNDK Funding rate surged to 10%, are leveraged longs coming back?
Bitcoin rebounded from $83,500 all the way above $86,500, and the futures market heated up simultaneously: the perpetual funding rate rose to about 10%, open interest increased by approximately $230 million over two days, with the total volume returning to around 653,000 BTC.
A positive funding rate means longs are paying shorts, indicating more people are betting on a price increase and risk appetite is recovering. But this is a double-edged sword—once longs become too crowded, even a slight price pullback could trigger a cascade of liquidations.
Next, watch three things: whether $86,000 can hold, if the open interest growth is supported by spot capital, and whether the funding rate will continue to soar. A truly healthy market requires spot demand and leverage to rise in sync. $BTC今日日历提醒：10/2（周五）——A股继续国庆休市（至 10/9 复市）；港股节前最后交易日已收盘（恒指 -2.60%）；★20:30 9 月非农已公布——大幅不及预期；美联储下次议息会议 10/28。 ★重磅——9 月非农大幅不及预期（就业市场意外降温）+ 10 月加息概率骤降：中国证券报（21:37）：'美国9月非农新增就业人数为2.9万人，预期9万人。失业率4.2%（预期4.1%、8月4.1%）。平均时薪环比上涨0.1%、同比上涨3%（预期0.3%和3.2%）'；证券时报（21:31）：'美国9月份两个月非农就业人数净下修6万人'；加息预期（证券时报 21:31，CME FedWatch）：'美联储到12月维持利率不变的概率为18.8%，累计加息25个基点的概率60.4%，累计加息50个基点的概率为20.8%'——10 月加息概率骤降至约 17%（抖音 21:36）；财联社（22:56）：'道明证券预计美联储将在12月和3月加息，此前预期为10月和1月'——机构加息预期时间后移。 ★美股 10/2 盘中（23:10——高位运行、纳指领涨）：同花顺（23:10 盘中快照）：道指 5After BTC surpassed 80,000, are the altcoins' wicks getting shorter?
This BTC surge is indeed eye-catching: it shot up from around 60,000 straight to 80,000, with chasing funds flooding in. More importantly, there was no significant pullback above 80,000, and the market is starting to treat it as a "value confirmation" rather than just an emotional spike.
On the macro side, Goldman Sachs pushed the expectation for the second rate hike from October to December, delaying the tightening risk that was heating up in October. For crypto, this isn't necessarily a direct positive, but it does buy about two months of buffer. With liquidity pressure easing temporarily, risk appetite has room to continue performing.
If BTC hits new highs again in these two months, capital outflows will become fierce. At that point, altcoins are likely not to just mildly catch up but to be explosively pumped by leverage and FOMO together. On the other hand, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive days, while ETH has turned to outflows, indicating funds are re-selecting sides: first holding tight to the strongest consensus, then considering diffusion.
Next, 80,000 is the touchstone, and December is the countdown. If BTC is stable, altcoins have a chance; if BTC's breakout is false, the frenzy will quickly subside.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 "Nonfarm Payrolls Crash the Market, Fed Pulls Back, Crypto Sees a Different Kind of Buying"
From 90,000 down to 29,000, previous values cut again, a total downward revision of 60,000 over two months, with July even turning negative; unemployment rate rises to 4.2%. This is not a cooling off, but the employment engine stalling. The market immediately reprices: the probability of a rate hike in October drops from 70% to around 25%, and the chance of no action after the data rises to 85%. The Fed temporarily pulls back, lowering the opportunity cost of interest-free assets.
Price moves first: BTC surges to 87,000, ETH stands above 2,750. But more importantly, the capital structure—ETF just ended 9 days of net inflows, $3.1 billion of profit-taking exits, yet prices did not fall, indicating new funds are betting on a policy shift. ETH staking queue is 1.68 million coins, with only 154,000 exiting; BitMine holds 6 million coins, accounting for 4.9% of supply, with 5.06 million staked, generating an annualized yield of $358 million. Lock-up, accumulation, and pause in rate hikes are synchronizing.
Strategy: Do not chase BTC above 87,000, confirm on a pullback to 84,500; if it holds above 85,000, target 89,000–90,000. For ETH, hold above 2,700 to buy, 2,750 is resistance; reduce positions if it falls below 2,600. The 29,000 nonfarm payrolls is not a recession verdict but a signal that the Fed is forced to pull back. Don’t chase highs in the frenzy, nor be absent at the turning point. $BTC $ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% The risk of escalation between the US and Iran rises again, Brent crude oil returns to $100, and safe-haven funds are migrating from high-volatility assets to energy and safe-haven varieties. As a newly launched hot coin, KAITO inevitably sees some short-term liquidity pulled away. I tend to believe this rebound is a weak recovery rather than a trend reversal.
However, the market has not fully turned bearish yet: current price 0.352, up 3.2% in 24h, still 25.94% room from the 4-hour low, the 1-hour level still maintains an upward structure, only 1.95% retracement from the high. Trading volume is 17.71 million with a funding rate of 0.0050%, bullish sentiment is moderate and not overheated; open interest of 11.289 million coin-margined shows leverage has not significantly withdrawn. But the order book's top 10 buy/sell ratio is only 0.68, with sell orders of 89,000 outweighing buy orders of 61,000, short-term selling pressure is real, and 0.36 is the breakout confirmation level.
Strategy-wise, if it pulls back to 0.3435 without breaking, you can lightly go long, stop loss at 0.3315, target 0.3685; if volume increases and it stabilizes above 0.3605, then chase long, stop loss at 0.3475, target 0.3835. Position control within 20%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$KAITO#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 $KAITO The risk of escalation between the US and Iran rises again, Brent crude oil returns to $100, and risk aversion sentiment heats up but has not crushed the crypto market. SOL holds its gains against the trend. I judge the short-term outlook to still be bullish but caution is needed when chasing highs. From the capital perspective, a fee rate of only 0.0100% indicates bulls are not overheated, and a position of 3.005 million coin-based contracts shows moderate speculation; after a 2.2% rise in 24h, the order book buy-sell ratio is 0.76, with selling pressure slightly dominant. The previous high of 123.76 is a strong resistance, and 116.83 is the intraday support. It is recommended to lightly buy on a pullback to 118.35, with a stop loss at 116.57 and a target of 122.85; if volume breaks above 123.76, positions can be added, controlling holdings within 20% and strictly managing risk.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOL#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 $SOL Looking at the floating profit on the account, I honestly can't feel relaxed. A few days ago I told myself that once I reduced some exposure, I could finally sleep peacefully. But then the market kept pushing higher, and that familiar gambler mentality came back: “Maybe it can go even higher.” So I kept holding. Now the margin ratio has fallen to around 0.34%. That's way too close to the danger zone. 📊 Current positions $BCH - Full position, 10X - Entry: $264.80 - Mark: $318.60 - Position valueNo guessing tops or bottoms, just holding BTC long positions
The rhythm of this BTC cycle is actually very clear.
First stage, from 58,000 to 82,500, bulls ignite first.
Second stage, a pullback from 82,500 to 75,000, just stepping on the MicroStrategy cost zone, but never touching the 74,000 bull-bear line. Holding this well is already strong.
Third stage, pushing from 75,000 back up to 87,000, with 82,500 becoming a key threshold. Previous judgment: breaking 82,500 would quickly surge to 85,000. That was correct. But after 85,000, it didn’t jump straight to 90,000; instead, it stalled around 87,000.
This doesn’t mean the market is bad. Around 87,000, divergence begins, bulls and bears split more, essentially a rotation and accumulation. Just the rhythm slowed down, not the direction lost.
Now, should you go long or short? Honestly, short-term is really hard to guess. Chasing longs risks being shaken out, shorting risks being left behind. The only certainty is that I won’t let go of my long positions.
$BTC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ENJ ultimately made a profit within 15 minutes
If it surges 20% rapidly within 15 minutes, you can take a 3-point retracement in the next 15 minutes; if you miss it, you have to close the position
If it surges 30% rapidly within 15 minutes, you can take 5 points
However, the time is very limited, holding positions for at most 15 to 30 minutes. If you don't make money, or whether you make a little or a lot, you have to close the position. The potential risk is: there might be another wave of surge, and you could get stuck 🥲
The screenshot below was taken at 20:18, just missing the take profit point, at that moment my heart sank Why does extremely poor non-farm payroll data actually cause the market to crash?
1. Buying the expectation, selling the fact: Before the data release, gold prices were already fluctuating between 4135-4190, with the market pricing in "weak data" in advance. After the data was released, there was no new buying, and bulls instead took profits and closed positions.
2. Stagflation and liquidity crisis: Non-farm payrolls at 29,000 mean the economy is rapidly deteriorating. The market suddenly realizes that if the US economy enters a recession, it could trigger a global dollar liquidity crisis. Institutions, in order to obtain dollar cash (to survive), will indiscriminately sell gold. This is what I mean by: "In a liquidity crisis, what is sold is not logic, but survival."#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市，若成行将抽走部分科技板块风险偏好，ETH短线或承压震荡，但加密独立叙事仍在。当前报价2699.93，24小时微涨0.6%，高点2777.7未能站稳，低点2674.47附近有承接；小时与四小时趋势虽向上，距低仅1.63%和12.89%，追多性价比已不高。订单簿前十档卖单3120压过买单2534，力量比0.81，资金费率0.0022%偏中性，持仓60.4万显示多头未过热。策略上，回踩2681.3可轻仓试多，止损2658.7，目标2743.9；若反抽至2756.2受阻则短空，止损2781.4，目标2693.5。仓位控制在两成以内，感恩节前消息面易放大波动，务必带好止损。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
$ETH#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $ETH $SAND 4-hour trading volume of 100 million, average price at 0.065, watch if it sweeps the liquidity below. If it dips to 0.058, you can go long Under the RWA trend, I have noticed four yield targets: $AAVE, $UNI, $ENA, Pendle
Considering the three dimensions of time, potential explosiveness, and certainty:
AAVE and UNI are core assets that prioritize "certainty," but patience is needed to wait for RWA income to scale;
ENA and PENDLE have stronger explosive elasticity but relatively lower certainty, making them more suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance.
In this wave of RWA, AAVE and UNI serve as the foundation, but don’t expect to make quick money from them.
AAVE is positioned at the lending gateway; institutions using tokenized stocks as collateral to borrow money can’t bypass it. Unfortunately, its scale is large, income grows slowly, market share is being taken, and buybacks are shrinking, so it’s suitable for long-term holding.
UNI holds about 60% of the tokenized stock trading share, and the fee switch has been turned on, but the annualized burn is only 90 million, valuation is no longer cheap, and there is still a lot of fluff in trading volume, so elasticity is average.
If you want to bet on elasticity, look at ENA and PENDLE. ENA’s fee switch passed unanimously, with 95% of net income used for buybacks, the strongest effort, but USDe needs to grow from the current 4.9 billion to 7.5 billion to trigger it, a gap of 2.6 billion, so it still needs to wait.
PENDLE’s mechanism is more practical, with 80% of income used for buybacks and annual inflation suppressed to 0.2%. Unfortunately, protocol income has dropped 90% from its peak, now annualized at just over 10 million, buyback volume is too small, and institutions are cutting losses and exiting.
Summary: AAVE > UNI > PENDLE > ENA Staring at the screen for too long, I keep feeling like this market is deliberately putting on a show for me. All the indicators are screaming oversold, and that little urge in my heart to open a position beats as regularly as a heartbeat. I used to think I could see through the script at a glance, but now I'm terrified of this kind of lifeless sideways movement. These past few days, I've forced myself to hide the account page and even turned off all notifications from the monitoring software, otherwise, I'm really afraid that one day I'll act impulsively and throw myself into this uncertainty. In this line of work, enduring boredom is much harder than enduring a crash; after all, losing money can always make you admit defeat, but this kind of boredom is the easiest way to make you dumb. Better go run a few laps downstairs to calm down.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI Brothers, this wave of BTC really stunned me!😵
Just now it was crazily pumping, pushing up over 2000 points directly, reaching a high of 87238, but then it quickly dropped back, and the current price has returned to 85282.5.
In the past 12 hours, $BTC long positions across the network liquidated about 16.648 million USD, while shorts liquidated 120 million USD, the bears got hit hard.
Look at my short position:
-880.94%
Opening average price: 78387.3
Latest transaction price: 85282.5
I've held this position for quite a while, honestly now I just want BTC to drop so I can exit. This kind of rapid spike followed by a quick fall just now also makes me more afraid to chase longs at high levels.
Brothers, this sudden pump and then dump pattern, do you think it's a shakeout or a bull trap?👇
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 Currently 100U challenge to 10,000U | Day 12
Initial principal: 100 USDT
Current total assets: 73.58 USDT
Today's profit: +2.17 USDT (+0.98%)
$XAU Non-farm data was positive but gold prices plummeted; the reason is that there have already been two consecutive bullish days, and the market has prematurely priced in the positive factors. In the long term, there is no negative news, but the US dollar exchange rate is like a sharp knife hanging overhead. I remain bullish for the long term but will not recommend others to buy with me due to high risk. The support level below is 4000-3950, but I won’t take the last bite of food nor drink the last sip of soup, so I entered early and am slowly accumulating at lower prices. I am optimistic about the big picture, so I am holding firmly and waiting patiently for the wind to rise.
$ETH Yesterday I said it surged but failed to hold above 2700 six times in nearly 10 days. Today it attempted to break 2800 again but failed, even with positive non-farm data. So I am waiting at 2600, holding firmly, with a take-profit set at 2600.
$CAP Yesterday I said short-term bullish, took profit at midnight, and as promised, it indeed rose to 0.08888 at midnight where I took profit and opened a short position, which is currently profitable. However, since I kept holding, it rose again overnight. Since I didn’t exit when profits were high, I definitely won’t now. Although a bit regrettable, I am fearless: if I make money, I take it; if I lose, I accept it.
In summary, today's profit is quite satisfactory. "Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise, Why Am I Still Holding Short Positions?"
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, fueling rate cut trades. $BTC surged to 87,000, $ETH reached 2,750. The market is excited, but I continue to hold shorts.
This rally is driven by expectations, not a trend. The 87,000–90,000 range is a dense trap zone; breaking through in one go is difficult. After the good news is priced in, it often becomes an excuse for profit-taking. Bigger risks lie elsewhere: high oil prices, the situation in Iran, potential changes in the Strait of Hormuz, inflation could rebound, and rate cut expectations may reverse at any time; with Trump's midterm elections approaching, policy uncertainties are also increasing.
The ETH short at 2,579 is still open, with a small loss near 2,750. It is weaker than BTC; 2,800 is strong resistance, ETF funds are flowing out, the ecosystem has no new stories, and the rebound is just following the rally. ZEC is too volatile, nonfarm impact is limited, so keep a small position.
The nonfarm surprise is just a short-term catalyst, not a reversal signal. Oil prices, geopolitical, and political uncertainties remain unresolved, making a one-sided move unlikely. Hold shorts for now and wait until the good news is fully digested.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $DOGE now has something new to trade alongside the meme.
DogeOS has launched its public testnet, bringing EVM-compatible applications to Dogecoin and using DOGE to pay gas fees. This gives the current move a real incentive from the ecosystem.
The one-hour chart shows DOGE near $0.09711, up 3.29%, with the price remaining above the 5/10/30 averages after testing $0.09792. But liquidation pressure is concentrated #BTCETHETFOutflows #AnthropicEyesNovIPO Rebound Fuel
September closed with a green board. $BTC rose 7% in the month, marking the strongest September in years. The third quarter was even stronger: BTC accumulated gains of over 40%, ETH about 70%.
Continuous net inflows into ETFs halted at the end of the month. On September 30, BTC products saw an outflow of $149 million, ETH outflowed $60 million, and SOL outflowed $11 million. Purchase enthusiasm dropped by about 80% on Monday, but some trading desks were still net buyers.
Market sentiment reported at 72, with total market capitalization around $2.9–3.0 trillion.
$SOL: The USD trading channel opened, with a commitment of $1 billion liquidity.
$ETH: MetaMask controversy triggered staking withdrawals, confirmed no loss of funds.
Macro: Non-farm payrolls to be announced Friday, US Treasury yields remain relatively high.
Non-farm payrolls are the ignition. Final pricing depends on the close, not the open. US Treasury yields frequently hitting new highs suppress risk appetite, but $WLD has risen 17.5% against the trend. Capital is actively betting with real money on a loosening of rate cut expectations. I tend to see this as a short-term emotional pulse rather than a trend reversal.
The 0.5744 level is only -0.66% from the 4-hour high. Open interest of 73.237 million tokens shows bulls are still adding positions, but the order book buy/sell ratio of 0.87 reveals heavier sell orders. The top 10 sell orders total 160,000, outweighing buy orders of 140,000. The funding rate of 0.0100% is neutral, and the chasing-buy sentiment is not overheated yet.
If it pulls back to 0.5412 and stabilizes, consider light long positions with stop loss below 0.5187 and target at 0.6035. If it directly rallies to around 0.5968 and faces resistance, consider shorting with stop loss at 0.6124 and target at 0.5541. Do not exceed 5% position size per trade. The current battle is intense; strictly observe stop losses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$WLD#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $WLD So for now, we still need to remain cautiously optimistic. Risk assets have plenty of hidden dangers, but the two deadliest ones are energy prices and US Treasuries. Crude oil is watching the Middle East situation, while US Treasuries are even more complicated—energy, inflation, government bond issuance, Treasury regulation—a bunch of variables mixed together. If these two issues aren't resolved, optimism must be kept in mind. Tonight's nonfarm payroll data was dovish, but just two hours later, long-term US Treasury yields have risen again. This shows risk assets are currently optimistic under pressure, clearly suppressed, and still have to wait. On October 1st, the Treasury conducted a 6 billion RMB 10- to 20-year long-term bond buyback, but a problem arose: the repurchase quota increased, which instead led to more long-term bond sells. Clearly, the Treasury's move is a long-term adjustment, not a quick fix. So risk markets still need to endure in a high interest rate environment for a while. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2 9,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. #BTC ETH spot ETFs simultaneously transferred outflows, cooling capital activity #美债收益率频创新高, and long-term interest rate pressure remains uneased U.S. Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved, and risk assets are under pressure. But BTC is holding up today; I judge it still has short-term resilience.
Current price 85309.8, 24h up 1.4%, resistance at high 87239, low at 84017.3. Trading volume 10.985 million, funding rate 0.0046% slightly neutral. Order book top 10 buy/sell ratio 0.06, heavy selling pressure, 4-hour uptrend 12.65% above low, be cautious chasing longs.
Strategy: Light long position on pullback to 84185, stop loss at 83560, target 86650; if rising to around 87120 stalls, short position, stop loss 87740, target 85230. Position size no more than 20%, strict stop loss.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$BTC#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC With 250,000 U swept straight into CT, she treated pullbacks as a way to get in. Do you dare to buy against others when they're shouting "too high"? Yesterday I saw someone put all 250,000 U into CT, with a cost of about 0.6115, marker price 0.6135, and an unrealized profit of 800 U upon entry. The amount wasn't exaggerated, but the action was honest: not chasing a bullish candle, but waiting for the pullback to be confirmed and then fully buying it all at once. CT has been slowly grinding from 0.40 these days, breaking through 0.48 to 0.56, reaching a high of 0.6194, with a 24-hour increase of 25% at one point. Most people's first reaction is "too big to chase," but she thought the opposite: if it didn't crash immediately after the rally, it means the chips weren't in a hurry. I watch the 1-hour chart: it has been sideways around 0.48 for a long time, then accelerates after a breakout. This structure usually means the previous accumulation lasted long and not a quick pull and then exit. Right now, the high price is shaking fiercely, but if the price can still stay above 0.60, she's willing to take a bet. She's not looking at the end, but a shakeout. First, look at 0.62 above; if it holds above 0.619, it opens to 0.65 or even higher; if it breaks below 0.57, this breakout should be doubted again. She also holds ZEC, entered at 1146, current price is 1378, unrealized profit over 30,000 USD, return 160%+, highest reached 1695, recently pulled back but the overall trend is intact, key levels are intact, so keep waiting. CAP surged to 0.08888 and then returned to around 0.07. The new coin's volatility was too wild, so she chose not to touch it for now and let it wash itself. What really matters here is not how much she earned, but the cross-market line: BThe market indeed followed the expected pattern of a rebound followed by a pullback; the 873 level itself is a strong resistance zone, and multiple attempts to break through have failed as anticipated. When the price ratio couldn't effectively break higher, the long positions on BTC were exited first, and short positions were established at 868, which are currently held.
The targets given to everyone in the evening, BTC at 853 and ETH at 2694, have now been reached. Next, the focus is on whether these levels can hold steady; if the support doesn't hold, the short positions can continue to be held with BTC targeting 843 and ETH targeting 2671. $BTC $ETH In September, the US nonfarm payrolls only added 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. First, new jobs were far below the expected 90,000 and the previous value of 133,000. In August, the figure was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and in July it was even harsher, dropping from +21,000 to -10,000. With September so weak, July was already negative, so raising rates in October is basically unreasonable. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Second, the unemployment rate of 4.2% is indeed higher than the forecast and previous value of 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate also rose from 61.6% to 61.8%. So the rise in unemployment may just mean more people are looking for work, not that unemployment is actually increasing. Don't rush to imagine rate cuts. Third, both the annual and monthly hourly wages are below expectations and previous values. Previously, the consumer confidence index had already dropped sharply in September, so the CPI on the 14th is unlikely to exceed expectations. Wages haven't risen much, and consumer confidence is weak, so at least the CPI won't be negative. So at the October 28 FOMC meeting, I can't say 100%, but it's highly unlikely there will be a rate hike. There may be some minor negative news from the US and Iran, but it shouldn't be a big shock. Whether December will increase depends on the data to come; at least the environment in October is good. CME federal funds rate futures and Polymarket forecasts show the probability of no rate hike in October at around 83% to 84%. Basically, you can buy a yes right away without waiting for CPI data. #美国9月非农仅增2 9,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETF is simultaneously flowing out, and capital enthusiasm cools #美债收益率频