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76,386 📉—— The most expensive lower shadow today.
The 76,600 this morning was not a breakout, but a hunt. That lower shadow dipping to 76,386 wasn’t held for 1 hour and then pulled back, now it’s back above 77,200.
Long positions at full rate (0.01%) haven’t withdrawn, OI is stuck at 2.57 billion with no movement—no one really dares to short on the drop.
US futures turned green: Nasdaq +1%, S&P +0.33%. However, oil prices surged due to the Middle East, gold fell below 3900, risk appetite is split.
My judgment: 76,600 won’t be lost, at least a retest of 78,800. Only if it closes above on the 1-hour chart will 80,500 be in sight. Valid from tonight’s US session until 8 AM tomorrow before rate settlement.
If 76,600 is lost again, this daytime rebound is fake, I admit my mistake here, target returns to 75,200.
Nasdaq this time, will crypto follow?
$BTC $ETH #BTC continues to be under pressure, capital and market trends diverge
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. BTC dropped to about 73,508, with roughly $1.587 billion worth of long position liquidation pressure stacked below.
ChainCatcher relayed from Coinglass: breaking below $73,508, the cumulative long liquidation pressure on major CEXs is about $1.587 billion; breaking above $81,144, the short side pressure is about $1.43 billion. At the time of writing, BTC is around 77,228.
The pool below is closer than the one above: if the price dips further, long position pressure will be triggered first. The intensity is based on monitoring criteria and will adjust with the order book; it does not mean a large number of positions have already been liquidated.
Are you more afraid of hitting 73,508 to liquidate longs first, or breaking up to 81,144 to squeeze shorts first?
I will continue writing when the liquidation map updates, please follow. #BTC
$BTC 🔥 The US midterm election curse reappears? BTC's historical patterns are worth noting!
Looking back at the past three midterm elections, $BTC has hit a phase bottom after each election:
📉 2014: Bottomed about 71 days later at around $170, then surged over 100 times!
📉 2018: Bottomed about 39 days later at $3,200, then later peaked above $64,000!
📉 2022: Bottomed in just 13 days at $15,500, then once surged up to $126,000!
Interestingly, the time for BTC to bottom is getting shorter, suggesting the market might be forming some cyclical pattern.
📰 Latest news: The 2026 US midterm election is held today. BTC had already dropped to about $57,700 in July, breaking the previous pattern of bottoming only after the election. The market is currently focused on the election results, ETF fund flows, and the volatility brought by this week's non-farm payroll data.
A word from the leader:
History can be a reference but not a script. The rebounds in the past three rounds don’t guarantee a repeat this time.
The more panic in the market, the more you need to stay calm. 👀
Will $BTC bottom early this time, or face another deep correction?
Make sure to set your stop-loss orders properly.Odaily Planet Daily reports that trader Killa recently predicted that Bitcoin is very likely to maintain a volatile range in the coming months.
If the bottom has already been established, the speed of this cycle's start may exceed expectations. Before the arrival of a new major upward trend, the market is more suitable for short-term traders to operate repeatedly.
During the volatile phase, bulls and bears tug back and forth, easily triggering stop losses repeatedly. Trend traders can patiently wait for a clear direction, while short-term traders must strictly control stop losses. There is no absolute standard answer for the market; do you think the bottom has been confirmed? Title: BTC Rebounds, ETH Faces Selling Pressure, and SNDK Struggles at Resistance $BTC : The short position around $78,600 wasn't particularly large, but it still took a hit. BTC dropped below $76,300 before recovering sharply above $77,800. The $76,000 level remains an important support zone to watch. My pending buy order wasn't filled, so I'm now watching whether $77,000 can hold as support. If it stabilizes, I may consider a small long position. For now, patience is the better approach. $ETH #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Midterm elections, I bet the Republicans will sweep! Contrarian prediction🔥
The November 3rd midterm elections are coming with a big impact! Recently, the market has been shrinking and consolidating, with all funds waiting quietly for the election to set the direction! I'll give a hard conclusion directly: this time the Republicans will sweep both chambers, not just a narrow win!
Seat trends locked in advance: Senate expected at 53 seats for Republicans, Democrats only 47 seats; the contested seats heavily suppress Democrats, with huge pressure to defend states and almost no margin for error; the House is solidly controlled around 230 seats, firmly holding the board. The so-called tight race in the market is just a misleading illusion to confuse retail investors⚠️
The core logic of the election is simple: voters currently only care about three major pain points—prices, interest rates, and employment. The Republican economic narrative precisely matches people's livelihood demands, while the Democrats have no practical economic plan, completely losing popular support.
The traditional rule that the incumbent party loses seats in midterms is completely invalid! The old rule only applies to markets without variables; now, high inflation and high interest rates are the biggest variables, leaving opponents with no cards to play!
Market expectations are clear: a Republican victory will bring tax cuts and looser regulations, benefiting risk assets broadly. $BTC is expected to rebound and challenge above 85,000! Remember: expectations are priced in early; once realized, the good news is fully reflected, so never chase the highs! The election is just a catalyst for the market, not a signal for a one-sided bull market!
Do you think this contrarian prediction can be nailed accurately?🤔
⚠️This is only personal logical deduction and does not constitute any investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ xAAPL/USDT Update
xAAPL trades at $xAAPL 324.75 (-1.68%).
After peaking at $xAAPL 353.35, it dropped sharply to $xAAPL 322.03.
Like past ups and downs, big drops follow major peaks before finding a floor.
Looking long term, blue-chip stocks always bounce back toward all-time highs after cool-downs. Title: ETH Tests Critical $2.20K–$2.25K Support — Will Buyers Defend the Zone? $ETH is approaching a crucial support zone between $2,200 and $2,250. After facing rejection near $2,800, Ethereum remains trapped in a descending channel, with selling pressure keeping the broader trend weak. Buyers need to defend the current support. A rebound toward $2,400 could be the first sign of recovery, but $ETH needs a confirmed daily close above this level to challenge the bearish structure. For now, pati$BTC $ETH $SOL Short positions got crushed again, still dare to short?
$BTC: Moving up with volatility, shorts keep getting hit
$77,397, down 0.73% in 24h, high $78,147, low $76,386, long-short ratio 2.67 (4h ago 2.77), open interest $2.581 billion. In the last 4h, liquidations: shorts $1.846 million, longs $38,000. Price surged then pulled back, failed to break $78,147, upward move still needs to consolidate.
$ETH: Slight recovery, shorts liquidated the hardest
$2,286, down 0.12% in 24h, high $2,309, low $2,237, long-short ratio 2.16 (4h ago 2.46), open interest $1.462 billion. In the last 4h, liquidations: shorts $6.52 million, longs $105,000. Touched $2,309 then pulled back, only a firm hold above $2,300 would signal the pain is over.
$SOL: Longs and shorts liquidated evenly, a draw
$93.16, down 1.33% in 24h, high $94.89, low $90.87, long-short ratio 3.41 (4h ago 3.42), open interest $332 million. In the last 4h, liquidations: longs $545,000, shorts $538,000. Hovering between $92.47-$93.68, if it doesn't reclaim $94.89, direction remains uncertain.
Summary: In the last 4 hours, total liquidations reached $9.592 million, shorts accounted for $8.904 million.
A slight rise already forced shorts to pay this much.
For market record only, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ xNVDA Market Outlook
* Current Price: xNVDA is trading around $xNVDA 207.59.
* Recent Trend: The chart shows a drop from a peak of $243.24 down to a low of $xNVDA 201.24. The 30-day view is down 11.76%.
* Prediction: Markets always move in cycles of ups and downs.
Following past drop-and-recovery patterns, xNVDA could hold support near $200 before attempting a bounce toward the moving averages near $210 to $xNVDA 213. 【On-Chain Trading Update｜ETH】
Monitored address 0x68af opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 2,282.81 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 684,841.65 USD
▪ Leverage: 8xBTC Historical Cycle Review📊
Looking back at Bitcoin's past bull and bear markets:
Topped in 2013, bottomed in January 2015, lasting 13.5 months;
Top in 2017, bottomed in December 2018, lasting 12 months;
High point in 2021, with the major bottom only landing in November 2022, taking 12.5 months.
If this cycle's peak is in November 2025, applying historical cycle projections, the real major bottom of this bear market will most likely fall in November–December 2026.
History can be referenced but does not simply repeat; cycles are probabilistic projections, not ironclad rules. So according to this timeline, is it really time to start bottom-fishing now?
⚠️ Cycle projections are only historical data reviews and do not constitute any trading advice. Market conditions can vary, so do not enter positions based solely on cycles.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOL: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 94.00-94.50 range (previous downtrend consolidation platform and 24-hour high resistance zone) and then enter short.
· The target is first 90.79 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at the 90.00 whole number support. Set stop loss above 95.20.
Core basis:
1. Bears absolutely dominate: Figure 2 shows the nominal long-short ratio is only 31.49%, with short positions reaching 385 million U (3.1 times that of longs!). The average short cost is 97.48, currently in a large profit state (73% profit ratio), providing strong defensive space and confidence to add positions.
2. Heavy selling pressure from deeply trapped bulls: The average long cost is as high as 104.43, with deep losses exceeding 15 million U. Any rebound above will face bulls cutting losses to exit, making it very difficult for the main force to directly push prices up.
3. Positive funding rate and moving average resistance: The funding rate is positive (0.01%), meaning longs pay high holding costs, which easily triggers the main force to spike down to clear longs. Although the 1-hour level is oscillating at a low position, the overall trend remains in a descending channel, making rebounds an opportunity to enter short.
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Old Leek Observation $MPLX: Solana's New RWA Story
Metaplex recently launched MPL-3643, which is worth paying attention to. It can be understood as Solana's version of ERC-3643, aiming to enable real-world assets such as securities, real estate, and private equity funds to achieve on-chain identity verification, holder qualification restrictions, and compliant transfers.
This is not just a PPT story: MPL-3643 has already entered Early Access on the Solana mainnet. But after reading the official documentation, I found an issue that the market might easily overlook:
The protocol fees for MPL-3643 use $SOL, not MPLX.
24-hour increase is about 37%, 7-day increase about 112%, 24-hour trading volume about $68.56 million.
The market has already started trading this story.
There is also a risk: the official documentation shows that MPL-3643 has not yet completed a security audit and is currently still in the Experimental stage. Lost 38.2 million and still adding to the position, this rolling position guy really doesn't care about his life 😂
There's an address that's been rolling since June last year, with a total loss of about 38.2 million USD on the contract, and it has liquidated who knows how many times in between. Just now, he added 450,000 USDT margin to the account and directly opened a short Bitcoin position worth about 9.35 million USD, entry price 77,429, liquidation set at 81,464, leaving only about a 5% buffer.
Earlier, he was also holding a 7.19 million USD 40x short, with the liquidation price almost touching the current price. After adding margin, he just moved the liquidation line up a bit and increased the position size. Losing this badly and still not stopping, just watching makes my palms sweat.
For beginners, it's recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC 🔥Bitcoin officially comes of age! This 18th anniversary coming-of-age ceremony sends chills down the spine when you think about it!
On October 31, 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis swept across the United States, with $700 billion poured in to bail out banks. Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin whitepaper, with the phrase "no need for a trusted third party," directly challenging the entire traditional financial system.
Who could have predicted the changes over eighteen years?
The product once meant to disrupt Wall Street has ultimately walked right into Wall Street's capital feast.
✅ 2010: 10,000 BTC only exchanged for two pizzas
✅ 2017: First surge to the 20,000 mark, the first crazy bull market
✅ 2021: Peaked at 69,000, followed by the FTX collapse, wiping out countless assets
✅ 2024: Spot ETF approved, institutional gates fully opened
✅ 2025: New all-time high, surpassing $126,000
Behind the glory, undercurrents have long been surging.
Chips continue to concentrate heavily in top institutions, the decentralization narrative keeps fading; under the block reward halving cycle, miner fee income remains sluggish, with selling pressure risks lurking long-term; looking further ahead, quantum computing hangs like a sword overhead, ready to rewrite the underlying security logic at any time.
It has indeed completed an unprecedented financial experiment and achieved tremendous secular success.
But ironically: it has ultimately become deeply bound to the centralized financial giants it originally aimed to escape.
The original intention remains, but the playing field has long changed players.
#Bitcoin #Bitcoin18thAnniversary $BTC ⚠️ Capital divergence is rising! BTC's low-volume bounce may be a bull trap.
$BTC is down 7.3% in October, stuck around $77K–$80K. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $643M in outflows on Oct 30, while the Coinbase Premium stayed negative for 38 straight days, signaling weak US demand.
Miners are also facing pressure as revenue per hash dropped 17.5%, potentially increasing selling pressure.
BTC's next key test is $80K. Failure to reclaim it could trigger another correction. #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook 🚨 History repeating? Ahead of the US midterm elections, $BTC faces pressure again!
Looking back at the past three US midterm elections, Bitcoin experienced significant pullbacks:
📉 2014: Bottomed around $171 about 71 days after the election, a drop of approximately 48%.
📉 2018: Fell to around $3,200 39 days after the election, a pullback of about 50%.
📉 2022: Reached $15,500 in just 13 days, a decline of roughly 16%.
Now, the 2026 midterm elections are approaching, and market expectations for control of Congress are shifting. Latest forecasts show the Democrats have about a 95% chance of taking the House and about a 76% chance of winning the Senate.
If the Democrats ultimately regain control of both chambers, how will the market react? Policy battles, fiscal spending, and crypto regulation could all become new focal points.
A word from the leader:
Historical data is indeed worth caution, but three declines do not guarantee a fourth.
What really needs attention is whether there will be new changes in capital flows, macro policy expectations, and market sentiment after the election results are announced.
If control of both chambers reverses, will $BTC usher in a new round of volatility? Worth continuous observation!
⚠️ Past performance does not indicate future trends; always set stop-loss orders on your trades. Apple's earnings data clearly exceeded expectations, yet the stock price performed poorly, which is quite thought-provoking!
The market never buys based on how much profit is made right now, but rather bets on whether continuous returns can be generated in the future; pricing always reflects the future. If you can't keep up with this wave of AI, even if the current gross margin looks impressive, the stock price is likely to remain under pressure. On this track, Apple has clearly fallen behind and become disconnected ⚠️
Whether it's the US stock market or the crypto market, this logic is consistent. For ETH and SOL to strengthen, it also depends on whether the subsequent narrative can be realized and if there is sustained incremental expectation support.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
The direction of the election will influence interest rates and regulatory trends; the overall environment for risk assets going forward largely depends on the outcome of this election.
⚠️ This is just a market observation and does not constitute any investment advice $AAPL $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Is it time to start pumping?
You may not trust hackers' character,
but you can't deny their insight.
An old hacker who stole about $22 million four years ago bought 7,548 ETH during this downturn, then sent 4,000 of them into a mixer. Is there really an unremovable mark on the chain?
$ETH $NEAR Early giant whales around 4.1 directly sold off more than 2.4 million tokens, making a huge profit and then immediately opened short positions. The pitiful buy orders on the spot market simply can't absorb this level of distribution. On top of that, there are additional issuances and unlocks weighing down, clearly showing that the bears are dominating this market.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇Severe capital divergence! Slight rise on low volume, possibly the calm before the storm ⚠️
$BTC has dropped 7.3% cumulatively in October, currently oscillating between 77,000 and 80,000 USD, with clear capital divergence.
Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 643 million USD on October 30, ending a four-day consecutive inflow; Coinbase Bitcoin premium index fell to its lowest point since November 2022, remaining negative for 38 consecutive days, indicating that US capital buying is basically exhausted.
Pressure also lurks on the miner side: total revenue in October hit an 11-month high, but revenue per unit of computing power dropped 17.5%. If the coin price continues to decline, miners may release further selling pressure to cover costs.
Many feel the slow weekend rally is a bull trap, a judgment worth noting. Capital has not truly warmed up; relying on a small weekend rise on low volume is unlikely to stabilize the market.
BTC fell below 77,000 last night, currently slightly rebounding with a 0.65% oscillation. The key is whether it can hold above 80,000. Failure to hold will lead to a deeper correction, with resistance at 84,000–85,000.
Trading strategy: do not chase the rise or sell in panic; always set stop-loss orders.
$BTC $ETH $ZECHow exactly do the midterm elections affect the crypto market? I break it down into three scenarios:
① Democrats take both chambers — bearish, but the market has already priced this in, so it’s not a new negative factor.
② One party takes one chamber — policies won’t change much, funds will actually feel safer, and there will be room for a rebound.
③ Republicans take both chambers — a miracle scenario, regulation continues to loosen, policies provide support, and crypto will take off directly.
Among these three scenarios, even the worst case is just like this.
So I’m not looking too far ahead, and I’ve already mentioned my positions in advance.
Bitcoin: 76200, 75700, 74900
Ethereum: 2220, 2200, 2150
If it reaches around 74900/2150, I will consider setting up medium- to long-term bullish positions on Orange #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $AKE faces approximately 2.1 billion tokens unlocked monthly, concentrated holdings, and a lack of substantial adoption data. Coupled with recent Binance security incidents triggering altcoin sell-offs and leveraged long liquidations, the price has plummeted over 95% from its peak, currently around $0.004, with a 24-hour drop of 20-40%.
The liquidation map shows slightly greater long liquidation pressure below; the short-term direction is unclear but there is a high risk of price spikes. This is a typical highly volatile speculative coin, with unlocking and sentiment driving the trend, low control by whales. Without significant fundamental positive news for whales to accumulate and hype, it’s basically doomed.$ZEC whales are acting too impatiently, directly scooping up $3.8 million worth of spot on-chain, then immediately opening 8,000 ZEC leveraged long positions.
This kind of spot bottoming combined with contract short squeeze tactics clearly aims to stir things up before next week's protocol upgrade.
Currently, the price is firmly stuck at the 1200 support zone, with a bunch of shorts stubbornly holding on. Big money is forcibly building positions at this level; this batch of shorts is very likely the ready kindling—just a slight push upward can trigger liquidations and send it soaring.
$ZEC Title: ETH and SOL Face Mounting Pressure as October ETF Outflows Weigh on Market Sentiment $ETH is trading near $2,250, while $SOL is hovering around $92. Both assets remain under pressure as institutional demand weakens and broader market uncertainty keeps investors cautious. October's ETF flows highlight the challenge: - ETH recorded approximately $1.61 billion in net outflows. - SOL saw around $144 million leave its ETFs. Even BitMine's continued $ETH accumulation hasn't been enough to coGood news came out, but $BTC actually dropped
On the day macro released good news, $BTC plunged to 76,700.
Breakdown under the cover of good news:
The rebound lacked volume, just waiting for an excuse.
Once the news landed, sell orders followed.
How this number is calculated:
From 76,700 to 77,700 is a $1,000 gap.
No transaction support in the middle, price moves fast.
One step further down, if 76,700 breaks again, there is no reference below.
The low-volume rebound can't hold the second test.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$BTC BTC is engaged in a "structural defense battle" above the 50-week moving average (75,728). The combination of the daily RSI at 39 and the 4-hour golden cross points to a "technical correction within a bearish trend," rather than a trend reversal. 78,219 is the confirmation line for whether the correction can escalate, and 75,728 is the judgment line for the bull market structure. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are splitting, and the remaining bulls are paying the most expensive funding rate in 90 days—the "volume" of leverage has been cleared, but the "quality" has not improved. In the middle position, waiting for a high-volume daily candlestick to choose a side. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 $BTC: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 77,500-77,800 range (EMA resistance zone and previous small platform) and then enter short.
· The initial target is 76,360 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then target the 76,000 round number. Set stop loss defense above 78,200 (24-hour high).
Core basis:
1. Bears absolutely dominate: Figure 2 data shows the nominal long-short ratio is only 18.06%, with short positions reaching 3.43 billion U (5.5 times that of longs!). Currently, both longs and shorts are at a loss (long average price 85,628, short average price 75,924, current price 77,126), but in the face of this massive short force, longs are powerless to mount an effective counterattack.
2. Weak moving average convergence: On the 1-hour level, EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 are tightly converged near 77,100, with rebound highs continuously declining. This weak rebound convergence pattern is likely a downward continuation, with a potential breakdown at any time.
3. Heavy selling pressure from deeply trapped longs: The long average price is 85,628, with over 68 million U deeply trapped. Any rebound above will face longs cutting losses to exit, and the main force will never easily lift the price to help retail unwind. The rebound is an opportunity to enter short, with an excellent risk-reward ratio.
$ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压
Revenue 114.5 billion +12%, EPS 2.10, iPhone 57.6 billion +17.5% — all three exceeded expectations, Apple delivered its strongest fiscal year ever. But after the earnings report, the stock fell 5%, not due to revenue, but profit.
The trigger was the conference call:
· December quarter gross margin guidance 45%-46%, 2-3 points lower than this quarter's 47.9%, market expected 46.7%
· Service growth guidance 8%-9%, market expected 10.7%, the lowest in over three years
· Inventory surged from 5.7 billion to 14.5 billion (+154%), high-priced memory costs to be recognized in the December quarter
· Siri AI cloud inference costs now included in service costs
New CEO Ternus himself admitted: this round of memory price increases is "unprecedented."
The key contradiction is this: Apple’s current forward PE of 36x is twice that of the S&P 500 and at its own 99th percentile historically. The market is paying a "certainty premium," but this time it’s getting "revenue is fine, profit is uncertain."
Moreover, revenue growth is driven by price increases — the Pro series raised prices by $100, not by volume. Greater China revenue of 17.5 billion, although +21%, was 1.2 billion less than expected and declined 6.8% quarter-over-quarter.
My judgment: this is not a fundamental collapse, but a valuation with too little margin for error. Title: BTC and ETH Face ETF Outflows: Why Bottom-Fishing Before the Midterm Elections Could Be Risky BTC and ETH are both under pressure, and rushing to call a bottom before the midterm elections could be risky. As election uncertainty approaches, some investors believe the worst is already priced in and a recovery is just around the corner. However, the latest ETF flows suggest caution is still necessary. BTC: On November 2, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $398.6 million in net outflows. IBIT accA Senate seat, the crypto industry spent about $63 million.
Ohio's seat holds the committee position overseeing the Market Structure Act, and who pushes the bill depends on tonight.
The entire House is up for election, and 35 Senate seats are up for election tonight; results will gradually be revealed tomorrow morning.
Funds have already shown their stance: mainstream ETFs are seeing outflows, while the spot ETF for XRP still had net inflows last week.
I think for crypto, tonight it's not about who gets elected, but the rules for the next two years.🗳️
$XRP
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？
Iran has compressed the original "seven-day plan" into a "two-day plan": on the first day, the US completes compliance, and on the second day, the Strait of Hormuz reopens to navigation. However, core conditions such as unfreezing funds, lifting maritime blockades, oil export exemptions, and ending regional conflicts have not been relaxed. Essentially, this shifts the negotiation pressure onto the US side rather than representing a substantive concession.
Driven by expectations of peace talks, oil prices recorded the largest single-day drop in three months. WTI crude fell over 7%, once approaching $96, Brent dropped over 7.6%, falling below $105, quickly giving back the previously accumulated geopolitical premium.
But this decline is driven by sentiment rather than a supply-demand reversal. Currently, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has only recovered to nearly half of pre-war levels, global crude inventories have significantly decreased compared to pre-war levels, and US strategic petroleum reserves are at decades-low levels, leaving supply buffers very thin. Coupled with inconsistent US statements and ongoing small-scale clashes, there remain uncertainties about the negotiation outcomes, so blind short selling is not advisable.
For the crypto market, the drop in oil prices helps ease inflation expectations and indirectly reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which is a medium-to-long-term indirect positive. However, in the short term, BTC's trend remains anchored to non-farm payroll data and Fed policy, currently maintaining a range-bound movement between $76,000 and $78,000. A single geopolitical news item is unlikely to reverse the market trend.
$BTC $ETH In the morning, the market was crashing, but by evening, there was a collective rebound! BTC, ETH, and even ZEC have all been pulled up. The bears just had a brief relief, and now the bulls are stirring again? But I really don't think this is a reversal! BTC bounced back from around 76,000 to 77,500, ETH is testing 2,300 again, and ZEC is starting to recover. Actually, I lean more towards this being short covering and oversold correction, but we still need to see the actual buying volume! Don't forget that on October 30, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of 643 million dollars, and on November 2, another 399 million dollars outflow, totaling over 1 billion dollars in two days! The price rebounded, but ETF funds are still flowing out. How strong can this rebound really be? The US stock market isn't fully turning strong either; Nasdaq futures only had a slight pre-market rebound, and tech stocks are still under pressure. Tonight's US market open and the election results coming out tomorrow morning will be the real test of this rebound's strength! For now, my overall bias remains bearish. Short-term rebounds are allowed, but I'm not in a hurry to chase longs. For BTC, watch if it can reclaim 78,831–79,150; for ETH, watch 2,300–2,318; for ZEC, keep an eye on 1,200–1,216. If it can't break through resistance and volume doesn't keep up, I'd rather look to short on the rebound. If volume really surges and it holds steady, then it's time to adjust the strategy honestly and straightforwardly!Perpetual contracts no longer have to focus solely on offshore platforms.
U.S. CFTC Chairman Selig issued a statement that, starting immediately, individual stock perpetual futures contracts can be listed and traded on CFTC-registered exchanges for the first time, provided that the platform is also registered with the SEC as a national securities exchange and designated contract market (DCM) for trading securities futures. This is the first time in the U.S. that a compliant channel has been officially opened for perpetual contracts, which were previously monopolized by offshore platforms.
This is considered bullish: once U.S. stock perpetuals operate domestically, it sets a compliance benchmark for perpetuals, and the market will naturally expect crypto perpetuals to gradually come onshore as well. In the short term, this benefits U.S. compliant trading platforms and on-chain derivatives narratives (such as perpetual DEXs like Hyperliquid), creating a structurally favorable sentiment. For traders, this is not a fundamental change for any specific token; the real focus should be on whether the initial products can generate genuine trading volume, whether the CFTC will extend the same framework to crypto perpetuals, and the pace of SEC registration. This announcement does not involve specific tokens. Users participating in related products should carefully check margin and liquidation rules, as high leverage can cause significant slippage and damage. It is not recommended to blindly chase derivatives concepts just because of this policy opening.
Source: PANews
Are you more concerned about the genuine trading volume of the first batch of U.S. stock perpetuals, or whether the CFTC will extend the same framework to crypto perpetuals? stacks will launch the third bond issuance this week, with a quota of approximately 1,005 BTC and a target yield of 3%, paid in BTC, which is higher than the total of the previous two bond issuances. Bitcoin holders have long heard that their coins just sit idle without use. Now there is a waiting list to let them start "working."HOT, still #1 on Orbit!
24h +185% (was +416% AM). Why hot? Midterms voting today = policy uncertainty max.
1/ REGULATION +32% - House flip = chairs + subpoena flip Jan, no reconciliation
2/ CRYPTO +98% - Divided gov = no hostile bill fast = building time
3/ TRADE +67% - Tariff debate
Gridlock vs Sweep. Facts > hype.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook It's not their own money, so they don't feel bad spending it 😅
A hacker suspected of stealing $106 million from an EU entity bought 27,553 $ETH in a single day yesterday, worth $62.83 million. All the buying operations were completed on-chain at an average price of $2280.34. It seems the buying has now paused.
Wallet address 0x9EcA05D78f6751C91Ab048858b7d21a67C015547The third confirmation,
Midterm election year crypto black swan law
2018 BCH hash war, about a month later BTC bottomed at $3,200
2022 FTX collapse, about two weeks later BTC bottomed at $15,500
2026 Binance hacked for $6.3 billion, ?
History doesn't simply repeat, but the rhyme frequency is ridiculously high
The bottom isn't smashed out on the day,
But the previous two black swans ultimately marked the cycle lows
The difference this time: last year Bybit was hacked for $1.5 billion, this time it’s more than 4 times that, the largest single theft in crypto history, yet BTC only dropped about 5%
On-chain, short-term holders have already transferred 36,600 BTC at a loss to exchanges, panic sentiment is very clear
Doctor Profit sets 76k as the lifeline; holding it means the third midterm election year bottom
On voting day, combined with big company earnings week, just give 76k two or three days to verify and you'll know#Triển vọng báo cáo tài chính Palantir: Can high growth support a high valuation $SNDK Whale triple short positions: BTC becomes a “cash machine,” but ETH drags behind? (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Whales are active on-chain again, this time placing triple short orders on BTC, ETH, and SOL at once, but the profits are clearly diverging (￣▽￣)
BTC short | 25X full position
Position: -1542.85 BTC, worth about 120 million U, entry price 80242.1 U. Current unrealized profit +3.548 million U, funding fee collected +348,300 U, margin 4.8101 million U, liquidation price 88415.23 U. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are a critical test for the White House administration. The key focus is on which party will control both chambers of Congress, directly determining the direction of fiscal policy, taxation, AI, and crypto regulation over the next two years. If the Democrats take both chambers, the market will price in expectations of tax hikes and tighter regulation, putting pressure on the tech sector; if a divided Congress emerges, major legislation will struggle to pass, leading to policy deadlock and relatively contained market volatility; if the Republicans hold both chambers, expectations for tax cuts and looser regulation will rise, while Middle East geopolitical risks may more easily push oil prices higher.
Beyond congressional seats, the results of key state governor races are also important, as they influence state industrial policies and set the stage for the next presidential election. However, elections are only short-term disturbances; Federal Reserve rate hikes and inflation remain the main themes. The closer the race, the stronger the volatility in U.S. stocks, the dollar, gold and silver, and crude oil during the vote counting phase. Overall, the market is betting on fiscal expansion versus regulatory tightening. Once the dust settles and uncertainty is resolved, the market will most likely return to the macroeconomic main themes. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Suddenly wondering, why is the name of a meme coin so important?
Two Chinese meme coins that emerged on BSC, one called Binance Life, the other called Bull Is Coming.
Binance Life = what happens after going all in on Binance; Bull Is Coming = when will the bull market arrive
These two names perfectly correspond to the two deepest anxieties of retail investors in the crypto space.
When a name equals the whole market's wish, it’s no longer just a token; it becomes a banner.
Every time someone shouts "Bull Is Coming," whether referring to this coin or the bull market, they are helping to spread it.
Of course, a good name doesn’t guarantee a price increase. But a meme coin with a bad name definitely won’t rise because the cost of spreading it is too high.
The essence of a good name is zero cost of dissemination. The U.S. Treasury has $1 trillion sitting in its account, untouched.
In the past two months, it plans to spend $134 billion.
Money flowing into banks and ordinary people's accounts is what drives people to buy crypto.
Bitcoin is currently waiting for this money.
But starting in January, it began pulling money out instead,
with $150 billion withdrawn in the first quarter, even more than what was spent.
Bitcoin is now around 77,000, and many are watching this money closely.
Before December, this money was supporting it. Starting January, the money will be withdrawn.
From here on, Bitcoin has to walk its own path.
So, those replenishing, don't rush."Open interest drops to 284.1 billion, a 12-month low, but longs remain expensive"
Today, no sector in the entire market rose, the first time in a long while.
Let's start with the ledger: total open interest in crypto assets fell to $284.1 billion, hitting a 12-month low. Sector-wise: AI -4.71%, DeFi -3.71%, Layer2 -3.20%, Layer1 -2.66%, Meme -2.64%, PayFi -2.07%, CeFi -2.01%, with OKB down 3.92%. Sector indices: ssiGameFi -7.38%, ssiRWA -4.74%, ssiDeFi -4.21%. Bitcoin dipped below 77,000 intraday, closing at 76,640, a one-month low; ETH also fell below 2,300.
"Open interest hitting a 12-month low" is today's most valuable figure. It means the leverage built up over the past year has basically been cleared. On November 1, BTC liquidations totaled $22.1 million in a single day, only 0.22 times the 30-day average—there's little left to liquidate.
But here lies a contradiction and the key focus today: leverage has been cleared, yet the cost of holding positions hasn't dropped. Over the past week, BTC perpetual funding rates averaged about 0.93 basis points daily, ranking high in the 90-day range, 38% higher than the previous week; current rates remain at +0.0100%, with longs still paying shorts.
In two sentences: chips have been cleared out, but those remaining are still paying to "go long." This is not a healthy bottom formation, more like a stubborn sideways consolidation. The aftermath of last week's exchange security incident is not over—the withdrawals just resumed, and funds are still flowing out net.
External markets are also retreating: oil prices rebounded near 105, gold fell from 3,940, silver dropped below 50. Today is the US midterm election; the CLARITY Act remains stuck in Congress, and regulatory answers will only start to emerge tonight. A detail worth noting: within the AI sector, AKE dropped 33.19%, while PIEVERSE rose 5.58%, SOSO up 4.90%—a 38-point divergence within the same sector, indicating it's not about sectors now, but individual assets.
Key levels: resistance at 77,600, 78,500; support at 76,500, 75,250.
My judgment: today's direction is not determined by the election results themselves, but by the difference between the election results and market expectations. Polymarket previously priced Democrats winning both chambers at 63%—expectations were too full, and fully priced expectations are most prone to reversal.
Discussion: leverage cleared, funding rates still high—is this a bottom signal or is there another drop?
I lean toward the latter. A classic bottom feature is funding rates turning negative first—longs paying enough and willing to concede, then the market is truly cleared. Funding rates are still positive, indicating some are still holding hard, and those holders are the fuel for the next move.
Poll: which do you focus on more—A. When funding rates turn negative; B. Whether total open interest stops falling and rebounds; C. The difference between election results and expectations; D. Which way the AI sector divergence leans.
I choose A. It's the only bottom indicator you don't have to guess and can see daily.
Not investment advice, risk on you. #MarketAnalysis $BTC $OKB$HOOD Does increased volatility boost Robinhood's trading revenue? Macro events and elections raise market volatility, and active trading may increase revenue, but asset shrinkage among clients can weaken net inflows and risk tolerance. If trading frequency, subscriptions, and client assets remain stable simultaneously, the platform's cyclical resilience is stronger. The downside is that volatility mainly comes from declines; if net inflows turn negative and active clients decrease, revenue elasticity will reverse. Distinguishing between directional declines and two-way trading activity, client retention is more important than single-week trading peaks. When further confirming, I will separate market expectations, revenue realization, and cash flow quality; at least two of these must remain aligned over multiple subsequent reporting periods before adjusting the medium-term outlook. If there is only a one-time event or single-quarter volatility, valuation recovery still needs verification.$BTC $BTC BTC is still testing downward!!!
This recent move is a bit strange! Oil prices have dropped so much, yet the Nasdaq is still crashing down!!
Tonight, the US midterm elections begin voting
Tomorrow morning, AMD's earnings report will test semiconductor demand again. These two events happening one after another make market sentiment easily shaken.
More importantly, BTC is not idle either; it is still testing downward now.
Many people want to call a reversal as soon as they see a rebound, but I advise you to keep your hands in your pockets first.
Yesterday it tried to reach 79,000 but was rejected, then turned to continue down.
Last night, the Iran negotiation news caused a slight pull-up, but negotiation and reaching an agreement are two different things, don't mistake news for a reversal.
The big direction of BTC still follows the US stock market down, but it is relatively strong for now; last week's low of 76,200 has not been taken out yet.
Today I am focusing on one thing: whether 76,270 will be swept first; after that, we will see if 75,000 can hold.
There is a small rebound on the hourly level, but the resistance between 77,800-78,800 is still pressing down, the bias to fall remains unchanged.
Don't chase the middle positions, wait for it to show its own weakness.Here's a controversial opinion: knowing how to take profits is more important than knowing how to cut losses! Especially when it comes to mainstream $BTC and $ETH.
The simplest reason is this: take going long on Bitcoin as an example, many will tell you to set stop losses in advance at price-dense trading zones to prevent black swan liquidation events. Saying that is irresponsible nonsense.
I dare say, once $BTC moves, even if you're long, you will definitely get stopped out early. The reason is that in crypto, the frequency of liquidity sweeps up and down is extremely high!
So the correct stop loss must be set after entering the position, before special events, and then stop loss after spikes following the event. If you don't want to monitor the market constantly, leaving some room below the stop loss is definitely more reasonable than placing it in dense trading zones.
But consider this: if you are using high leverage, that small price difference could be the difference between liquidation and not. In that case, what you need is dynamic stop loss and trailing stop loss; simply placing a fixed stop loss is very unreasonable. If you are already heavily invested in short-term trades, you must learn dynamic stop loss!
Taking profits is even more important. For taking profits, I actually recommend placing them in dense trading zones. The logic is the same—crypto sweeps liquidity back and forth. If you set your take profit a bit too high, you might miss the only chance to take profits!
There's not much to say about taking profits. As long as you are trading mainstream Bitcoin, as long as you are not greedy, you will definitely find the right take profit points. Nothing else matters!
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ BTC is stuck at 76,000, while ETFs have seen nearly 400 million outflows
Bitcoin is steady around 76,900 today, compared to the lowest 76,300 in the past two days, a rebound of less than 1%. But the US spot ETF has had nearly 800 million in net outflows for two consecutive days, Binance hackers caused users to withdraw about 4.7 billion, and with the US midterm election voting today, the market is not relaxed.
Right now, the 76,000 level is very critical; it is close to the average cost of short-term holders. If it holds, the upside targets are 80,000 and 82,000; if it breaks, the downside 73,000-74,000 will be tested. The problem is that many people now mistake "not yet broken" as "already bottomed out," which is the biggest trap at the moment.
Historically, Bitcoin often weakens first in midterm election years; the real direction usually becomes clear only after the results are clear and funds are repriced. Voting is today, results come tomorrow, so volatility will naturally increase. On top of that, trust repair after the Binance incident is still ongoing, and ETF funds continue to flow out. Using high leverage to bet on "election night must rise" or "must break" at this stage is very likely to be wiped out both ways.
What really matters is not intraday spikes but whether the daily close can hold above 76,000, and whether funds flow back into ETFs after the election or continue to withdraw. On the macro side, the Fed just held rates steady, inflation is not fully down yet, and there is another meeting at the end of the year; all these will affect risk appetite.
At this level, it’s better to wait and see rather than rush to add leverage to catch a "certain bottom."
What do you think? After the election results come out, will Bitcoin break below 76,000 first or return to 80,000 first?
$BTC
#Bitcoin #BTC #MidtermElection #ETF #Binance #CryptoMarket #FederalReserve #AvoidPitfalls #OKXStar #FishermanWatch