Crypto valuations, alt bleed, killer apps, & real on-chain users. Crypto's dream era is over, but the era of cash flows is just starting. 🧵 Breakdown of this week’s 1000x with @santiagoroel @AviFelman @jvb_xyz

Why Everything Outside BTC Is Struggling ➤ Valuations across altcoins can’t be justified by current revenues ➤ The dream of future activity is no longer enough to support prices ➤ Even strong narratives (tokenization, banks using crypto rails) were fully priced in Sentiment has shifted from belief to sobriety.

The Mirage of Altcoin Valuations ➤ Tokens don’t go bankrupt, which kept dead projects inflated for years ➤ But that paradigm is breaking — insiders are selling, communities are quitting ➤ EOS delisting showed even “next-gen” L1s aren’t immune from reality The spell keeping zombie tokens alive is finally fading.

Infrastructure Is Now Commoditized ➤ New chains are easy to launch and blockspace is cheap ➤ L2s cannibalize Ethereum economics, not strengthen them ➤ Infra ≠ value capture unless users + cash flows show up Owning rails isn’t enough — you need actual traffic.

Why Real Users Matter More Than Tech ➤ Active on-chain users haven’t grown meaningfully ➤ Speculative flows dominate and evaporate during macro tightening ➤ Without sticky usage, valuations collapse on contact with reality Usage is the KPI that decides who survives.

Killer Apps, Not Killer Chains ➤ Like the internet era, value accrues to apps, not pipes ➤ Google/Amazon were built on commoditized infrastructure ➤ The investable upside is in products with real demand, not generic L1s The era of infra-first investing is over.

Why Some Assets May Still Work ➤ Select DeFi protocols (Uniswap, Aave, Hyperliquid) have real fees ➤ Tokens tied to recurring activity may outperform during broad drawdowns ➤ Capital will migrate from vapor to fundamentals Survival belongs to the apps that actually make money.

Bitcoin Stands Alone ➤ BTC now trades like a macro asset, not a tech bet ➤ Institutional flows + ETFs create structural demand ➤ In a world of stimulus + affordability crises, BTC is the cleanest hedge BTC can rally even if alts stagnate.

What Real Flow Into Crypto Looks Like ➤ Institutions won’t buy gas tokens — they'll use stablecoins + rails ➤ Banks already deploying on public chains without needing the native asset ➤ Rails adoption ≠ token appreciation unless tokens capture fees Infrastructure adoption does not guarantee token inflows.