One of the most reliable metrics I have ever seen, it works almost every time:
If a new project announces an X space, the price goes down at least 70% when that space happens or soon thereafter.
In fact, a lot of new launches just die right after that initial excitement.
Take the following chart as an example: Accumulation and some excitement leading up to the X space, two big spikes. Since the X space: Only down, from 420k to 83k.
I've seen this pattern so often that I have lost count.
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