Aggregate loans outstanding in EVM land are down 23% from peak and on-chain interest rates are up ~2% and now have a sufficiently positive spread vs. t-bills.
Market share beneficiaries since Oct 10th are Maple and Morpho, due to USDe related borrows unwinding from Aave, Maple onboarding SyrupUSDT on Aave, Morpho continuing to get deposits from Coinbase (if I had to guess).
Aggregate lending protocol marketcaps are down ~28% on average, and have seen a decline in their multiple vs. loans outstanding (8.6% multiple compression).
We're probably at least 1/2 way through this kpi down cycle, but no signs of a trough yet.
My current read of the market is that a decline in KPIs is now consensus and is being factored into market prices.
I think the market is appropriately valued based on a medium drawdown in KPIs (20-40% from peak) assuming KPIs continue upwards on a multi-year time horizon thereafter.
If we're in a longer-term bear market, things are still a bit expensive.
I generally think it's the appropriate time to deploy selectively into a few names, but still think patience is warranted before backing up the truck.
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