Somebody commented, useless chart. It is probably one of the most useful charts you can have to understand Bitcoin behavior. 1) It uses the normalized returns of Bitcoin that include the decay due to the power law. 2) The stats are based on the true observed distribution of these values. It is not the usal bell curve because Bitcoin shows heavy tails, that means often we get large changes in price in both directions that overshadow changes accumulated for many weeks at times. The distribution I use takes in consideration these large events and characterizes them in the proper statistical way. 3) I do thousands of simulations showing all possible paths that this statistical characterization of Bitcoin can lead to. Take the top and bottom path as the best and worst possible scenario in the indicated time period. This should include large events. The median path is the power law. It emerges naturally from taking the median of the observed paths. How that is not useful?
Monte Carlo projections for the next 2 weeks. 124K is within likely paths. If we correct, the possible value is around 100K.
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