We all typically associate max pain with holding an asset to 0.
I have such a gut feeling that this time max pain is the majority are going to be sidelined for the next move up.
I don’t think I’ve seen the timeline like this in 5 years, Nobody is buying anything, everyone has either been completely wiped, or derisking to preserve what they have left.
Realistically, we’re trading above the monthly open. We’ve just had the biggest liquidation event in cryptos history. This is typically followed by a hated rally with people watching it. We’re heading into the most bullish quarter for the market, with some of the most scared investors the market has seen.
There is only two ways I see this plays out.
1. Markets open and there is a cascade of late sellers derisking with the tariff news announced after market close. Feel the drawdown will not even be comparable to the last 24 hours, followed by a relief rally.
2. We grab for a few more days and Trump lifts the tarrifs. I believe this will happen either way, followed by a very quick bounce back. The little guy won’t catch the move, or will wait for another opportunity to get in which won’t come and watch it run after selling the lows to protect capital.
Option 2 is how I think it’ll play out, and that is what max pain will look like. People showing up everyday through the entire bear, making bits over the last few months to lose it all within 24 hours, then watch everything rally back up watching from afar.
Not trying to give you hopium, nor am I trying to catch a knife.
This is just my outlook, and I have been a buyer over the last 24 hours in some large caps with size that I see doing well in the longer term. This is not me revenge trading to make it back quick, I’ve tripled my positions in $TAO and $AVAX bringing my entries way down.
Also, managed to grab quite a few more microcaps (the ones I continuously talk about) at which I believe the absolute lows, with some slingshots set on some of my favourite NFT collections which have a ton of outstanding loans near liquidation prices.
Either way, I hope you’re all holding up okay.
1.58萬
51
本頁面內容由第三方提供。除非另有說明,OKX 不是所引用文章的作者,也不對此類材料主張任何版權。該內容僅供參考,並不代表 OKX 觀點,不作為任何形式的認可,也不應被視為投資建議或購買或出售數字資產的招攬。在使用生成式人工智能提供摘要或其他信息的情況下,此類人工智能生成的內容可能不準確或不一致。請閱讀鏈接文章,瞭解更多詳情和信息。OKX 不對第三方網站上的內容負責。包含穩定幣、NFTs 等在內的數字資產涉及較高程度的風險,其價值可能會產生較大波動。請根據自身財務狀況,仔細考慮交易或持有數字資產是否適合您。