gn tweet
自上次的 gn tweet 已經過了一段時間(雖然 QT 中的那一條我相信不是最後一條),不過有太多和太少的事情可以談論,@chaos_labs 的事情變得非常繁忙(你可能會注意到有關 Chaos AI 的更新數量在增加),而市場上沒有什麼特別有趣的東西,所以這裡有一個快速的清單:
1) "便宜"的新代幣
這到目前為止效果很好,H、ELX、BIO 也表現不錯,雖然我對最後一個的目標價相對較高,希望能夠達到。
基本上,隨著許多事情的發生,很多代幣被遺棄(還記得那三個月,大家都在發佈新 Binance 上市的電子表格,價格在一週/月內下跌了 -90% 嗎?)。這些就是你想要留意的代幣。
越是完美的越好(易於進入、永續合約、非常憤怒的社群/人們、相對於估值上漲很多、"良好的"支持...)。我在 BIO 上有一些收益,但我認為它仍然是我觀察到的其他代幣中最好的候選者。
老實說,它很可能會以 STRK 類似的方式結束,但我不這麼認為。
也要留意 GAIA,雖然我對它的喜好要少得多。
2) ETH 4000$+ 耶
像其他人一樣慶祝,也會留意 ETC,因為在周期結束時通常會有詐騙性拉升。由於這一波是由 ETF 流入和傳統金融資金(還有其他因素)驅動的,我不指望它會很快耗盡,所以我目前仍在持有。
3) 優質 DeFi
對 Boros 的懷疑者已經被打臉了,我認為如果 Boros 成功,它可能會比 Pendle 本身還要大。
在短期內很難為 Pendle 提出理由,因為這周已經相當活躍,但這麼說吧:如果我認為市場、以太坊和 DeFi 會表現良好,Pendle 會始終是我主要的競標候選者之一。
值得一提的是 Gammaswap,終於推出了 gETH,並在 ETH 上提供了非常有趣的收益。
期待看看這能擴展到多大,以及會有多少人採用。
Euler 和 Fluid 也表現良好,但我已經完全退出 Euler,對 Fluid 來說,看看他們在 v2 中能交付什麼會很有趣,我對他們的方向(加倍下注)有點懷疑,但我們會看看。
我也喜歡 Ekubo,圖表真的很火。
4) NFT 代幣
如多次提到的,這裡的旗艦是 PENGU,我的選擇是 CULT(剛剛全部賣掉),DOOD(我稍微高於成本),ANIME(我稍微有利潤,我想 Azuki 和一部 Netflix 系列有些關聯?不太確定)。
我不確定這個敘事還能提供多少,但我認為還有一些潛力。
5) CTCs
簡要提及 CTCs,正確的玩法是傳統金融,而不是加密貨幣,如果你無法接觸到傳統金融,那就讓它們去吧,最多你可以逐個查看,了解哪些在加密方面真的能帶來有趣的價格波動(ENA),哪些則毫無價值(99.5% 的它們)。
6) PreStocks
簡單提一下,他們那裡有一些有趣的事情,比如 Anduril,雖然:
- 以 Anduril 為例,PreStocks 的售價加價約 60-70%,估值超過 550 億,而實際估值在幾週/幾個月前只有 360 億,所以在這種情況下,購買美國(傳統金融)可能會更好;
- PrePo(PreStocks)有歷史上製作看似良好的產品卻沒有吸引力,然後進行大轉型,這是合理的商業行為,但如果你打算永遠持有這些東西,我會考慮這一點;
- 整個事情是由 Republic 支持的...然而這不是 2019 年的 Republic,這是另一回事,投資於幾乎所有東西。再次強調,這顯然是合法的商業行為,但考慮到這些公司有優先拒絕權(如 Anduril),我也會記住這一點。
至於收益,事情有趣但不如一個月前或 2025 年初那麼火熱。我也有太多資本被鎖在回聲輪次、預種子等中,所以希望能很快利用其中的一些。
如你所見,沒有太多新的觀點,主要是更新和刷新舊的想法...在市場的這個階段,繼續在事物之間旋轉以追逐 10-20% 的小漲幅有點無用,最好有一些強有力的想法並持有它們。

Gn tweet
A lot of ideas, some executed, some food for thought, anyway lot of practical reasoning
1) NFT Tokens are back?
So, I thought quite a bit today about PENGU’s performance and identified two possible betas. One is the one that is pumping already and it’s the most interesting: it’s smaller cap, chart looks decent enough, relatively new, related IP is not too appreciated but they raised a shitton of money (DOOD).
The other has the opposite issue, cool ticker, cool IP but problematic related team (ANIME).
I also thought about the NFTs but generally when there’s a token it’s always better to bid the most liquid vehicle… because people will bid that.
2) Dead Rich Tokens
Generally speaking also I’d keep an eye on charts with clear horizontal accumulation especially where the team has a bit of money, that paid off greatly until now.
Am thinking about ELX as another possible case, which is even related to Sui that has been doing great, although nobody likes Elixir.
3) Pump
still sitting on most of my PUMP although I think that here playing rotations is a bad idea, you pick one of the two horses (PUMP or BONK) and go. This is the liquid play of the year aside from Hype most likely.
Still quite positive about it, although already laid out the bear case (revenue, liquidity sink, everybody frontran all the announcements because everybody knows…). One additional positive thing is how many people fumbled the sale which kinda shows that people are maybe not paying the due attention.
For me this is also a bet on teams that know how to execute. I don’t believe in their long term vision (replace meta/yt etc) but I think ability to deliver is a top 3 skill in crypto.
4) Stablecoins
stablecoin meta has been a total failure, even though sky/mkr didn’t perform too badly, it didn’t do anything either and even USUAL reacted better.
For Usual, the fact that locking 1y pays out 80% is good although it’s not easily hedgeable (funding is harsh). Tbh with the upcoming XPL sale this week, I’ll just participate and re-evaluate. Maybe it’s just better to buy more XPL or maybe Plasma can carry a bunch of tokens if we resume doing rotations.
5) Miscellaneous smaller caps
people under appreciate charts that go literally only in one direction, up and to the right, even if slower (EKUBO, TREE most perfect examples).
I’m almost entirely out of NILE (s/o to @0xSindermann).
Still think getting beta to PredictionFi through FLIPR (main choice, otherwise idk DKING or anything else one likes, hit me with some ideas) is a good idea on dips.
Again this is not a list of my positions and also it’s not an exhaustive list of what’s interesting in the market (e.g. Pendle and Boros, Ethos and InfoFi, Fluid and Jupiter, Wlfi and Trump, options derive and Paradex…), it’s just what I was specifically thinking this week. I’ve a long flight to take eow so maybe I’ll write something else down about that.
Gn from your resident Yumeko

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