#AICapExPushContinues

BREAKING: Anthropic is reportedly planing to release a new $AI model, just days after CEO Dario called for the whole industry to slow down. Amodei wrote a 3,800 word essay on September 12 saying $AI companies "must slow the pace" of development. A week later, Anthropic is considering rushing out a new model to compete with OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra. Sources say the move is driven by investor pressure ahead of Anthropic's IPO, not safety readiness. $ANTHROPIC

Update on my bet that OpenAI has a 50/50 chance of running out of money by next summer. I know I may be wrong here— this is what 50/50 means. But here’s how I see it. The positive: OpenAI has overtaken Anthropic in terms of weekly revenue, according to OpenRouter data from July. Reflects OpenAI’s scientific excellence, which has always stood in contrast to its shaky business foundations. Impressive that @sama and @gdb have lost loads of senior scientists and yet they still replenish the brain trust. Not so positive: Anthropic appears to enjoy far more customer loyalty. Twelve month retention rates are almost double OAI’s. (H/T @FT). But, tbf, this may just reflect a period when Anthropic’s models improved faster, and maybe the tables have turned. The chief OAI worry is the same as it always was: cash burn. Latest numbers indicate that OAI expects to lose $280 billion by 2030, even though revenue is forecast to 10x between now and then. That implies a massive fund-raising challenge. OAI is running an experiment not only in an unprecedented technology; it is also testing the depth of global capital markets. OAI has used the recent hacking scares to postpone its IPO, which might have been hard to pull off anyway. So it has to raise money privately. Already, the last fund-raising round included a bunch of financial engineering—conditional future cash promises, promises of compute in lieu of cash. OAI has also tried to finance data centers by leaning on Nvidia in its guise as the central bank of AI. See the $105 billion NVidia guarantee on the Ohio data center. How many more nimble financial tricks can OAI pull? Especially in a climate where the political backlash against AI is growing and open weight competition is intense? Here’s what to watch for. OAI financial partner, SoftBank, is plotting the near-term IPO of its data-center builder SB Energy. If that plan runs into trouble, there will be knock-on effects for SoftBank and hence a hit to SoftBank’s ability to pour fresh money into OAI.

🔥 Why does storage come after AI computing power? $SKHYNIX → HBM leadership, driven by AI server bandwidth demand. $MU → HBM + DRAM recovery, with strong cycle upside. $SNDK → NAND + enterprise SSDs, benefiting from growing data-center storage needs. Different plays, same AI infrastructure theme. Watch pricing, shipments, demand and margins. #AI #Semiconductors

#NvidiaChipDoubleOutlook Nvidia plans to sell more chips, yet AI compute is getting more expensive 👀 Jensen Huang expects chip sales to double over the next year, while Nebius is raising H100 to B300 instance prices by roughly 17%-21%. What caught my attention is the contradiction: supply is scaling, but pricing power isn't fading. If Nvidia doubles shipments and compute prices still stay high, the real story isn't scarcity. It's demand outrunning one of the fastest supply expansions in tech.

Anthropic plans to have 5GW of compute online by year end. I’m starting to understand why Dario wants to “slow down AI development” with that much compute capacity about to come online#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules

Nvidia's outlook and Nebius's price increase are not contradictory signals. Shipments can double while compute remains scarce if AI demand expands even faster. The 17%-21% rise across H100, H200, B200 and B300 instances makes cloud pricing the cleaner stress test: sustained increases would suggest supply growth is being absorbed before it can relieve customer costs. #NvidiaChipDoubleOutlook

#AISafetyDebateEscalates The AI safety debate just moved from Twitter arguments to the White House 👀 House Speaker Johnson proposed a meeting with 7-8 AI platform heads and lawmakers — no date set, but the fact it's being proposed at this level signals the conversation is shifting from voluntary to potentially mandatory 📋 Johnson opposes emergency AI pauses, citing China competition concerns. But OpenAI is already in weeks of talks with Anthropic and Google DeepMind on third-party evaluation frameworks. The industry is trying to self-regulate before government forces the issue 🤔 Chip stocks fell September 14 on GPU demand fears — safety slowdown anxiety is already hitting hardware 📉 The core tension: move fast and risk falling behind on safety, or slow down and risk falling behind China. Both sides have a real argument and neither is obviously wrong 🫠 Self-regulation via third-party evaluation, or mandatory government oversight — which framework actually produces better AI safety outcomes? 👇

While AI stocks bleeding — CoreWeave -6%, MARA -5% after Anthropic CEO called for slower AI development Crypto is outperforming. $BTC +1% to $77.8K, $ETH +2% to $2.5K Narrative flipped. Money leaving overvalued AI chips, hunting oversold BTC that was dead at $60K last month. BTC was oversold for months. Now short-term traders betting $80K+ by Dec. Rotation is real — not hype. Are you still in AI stocks or rotated to crypto? #BTC #AI #Rotation

#NvidiaChipDoubleOutlook Nvidia remains at the center of the AI infrastructure trade. Its recent results again showed exceptional demand for high-end AI accelerators, while analysts are focusing on the company’s unusually strong longer-term outlook. Nvidia has also expanded its strategic footprint through investments and acquisitions, including its announced purchase of Hugging Face for approximately $12.9 billion. The bullish case is straightforward: hyperscalers continue spending aggressively on computing capacity, and Nvidia’s software ecosystem makes its hardware difficult to replace. The risk is that expectations have become extremely high. Any slowdown in cloud-capital spending, supply-chain bottlenecks or export restrictions could create a sharp valuation reset. My view is that Nvidia’s operating momentum remains impressive, but investors should separate genuine end-user demand from infrastructure companies buying capacity ahead of uncertain future workloads.