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Tonight is the non-farm payrolls report, finally the moment to reveal the real answer.
The ADP data has already lowered market expectations to 44,000, a new low for the year. But initial jobless claims are still hovering below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks. On one hand, employment is cooling down; on the other, companies are not laying off.
The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 70,000 to 80,000. This number is very important—if it's lower, the probability of a rate hike continues to drop, and gold and BTC will keep rallying. If it's higher, inflation concerns return, and risk assets will take a hit first.
Before the non-farm data arrives, the market is already trading in advance.
Gold $XAU climbed back above 4300 this afternoon, the logic is the clearest: weak employment → easing rate hikes → weaker dollar → gold rises. Since the ADP release, gold hasn't dropped, and despite technical overbought conditions, it hasn't corrected, clearly betting on continued weak data tonight.
$BTC is hovering around 65,000. ETFs are still seeing net inflows, but Coinbase premiums have been negative for 80 consecutive days, with U.S. institutions selling and Asia buying, offsetting each other. The market is divided and direction is unclear. Gold is already reflecting weak employment expectations, while BTC is still waiting for a clear signal.
SanDisk $SNDK rose 3% pre-market but fell 6.81% last night; today's pre-market gain is less than half of yesterday's loss. Earnings beat expectations and a 14 billion buyback were announced, yet it still fell 7% after hours, indicating the market has fully priced in high expectations. If tonight's non-farm data is weak, SanDisk could rebound. If strong, high-valuation growth stocks will continue to be under pressure.
SpaceX rose 6% on its lockup expiration day, which is quite interesting. Over 900 million shares unlocked, nearly a hundred billion dollars of potential selling pressure, the market originally expected a crash, but it rose instead. Institutions $BTC $ETH $SNDK #SpaceXUnlockRebound #UniswapLaunchpadBet
Застереження. Вміст, опублікований на OKX Orbit, надається виключно в інформаційних цілях. Докладніше
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Сьогоднішні ринкові новини
1#PayrollsDropCPIFocus
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2#AIMemoryStressTest


3#SpaceXUnlockRebound
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