Post

The core contradiction in this employment report lies in the coexistence of job contraction and a decline in unemployment: in July, nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, compared to an expected increase of 80,000 and a previous increase of 57,000, with new employment turning negative from a low level. Private sector employment increased by 30,000, below the expected 78,000 and also below the previous value of 49,000. Labor demand is weaker than previously predicted, and interest rate path pricing may shift to pay more attention to downside employment risks. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%, which contrasts with the negative nonfarm payroll contract. More direct signals come from new job creations by companies, slower expansion in the private sector, and an overall contraction in nonfarm payrolls. Salaries have cooled down simultaneously. Average hourly wages in July rose 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and also below the previous 0.3%, indicating marginal relief in wage growth pressure. After the Fed's most recent decision, the policy rate was 3.75%. Employment turning negative and wage slowing may increase the weight of growth risks in policy discussions, but the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and monthly data is insufficient to confirm that the policy stance has shifted. #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation #SepHikeOddsFallHawks #AIMemoryBullContinues #SpotGoldTo4300