Post
Sanie188
đš U.S. Prediction Markets Just Got Even More Legally Divided
On July 30, Judge William Griesbach (E.D. Wisconsin) denied the CFTC's request for a preliminary injunction that would have stopped Wisconsin from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Crypto.com.
The court ruled that the CFTC is unlikely to prove sports event contracts qualify as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). It also emphasized that gambling regulation has traditionally been a state power, and Congress has not clearly overridden that authority.
Kalshi, Crypto.com Derivatives, and the American Gaming Association were also denied intervention.
The legal map is now deeply split:
đą Wisconsin â State wins. CFTC injunction denied.
đą Minnesota â Prediction markets win. State ban blocked; judge ruled event contracts are swaps.
đą New Jersey (3rd Circuit) â Kalshi wins.
đŽ New York, Ohio & Washington â States prevail.
Same federal law. Same event contracts.
Yet completely different outcomes depending on which courtroom hears the case.
This kind of circuit split is exactly what often sets the stage for a U.S. Supreme Court review.
Why this matters:
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi can currently operate in some states while remaining blocked in others.
That patchwork creates:
âą Regulatory uncertainty
âą Institutional hesitation
âą Slower adoption of prediction markets
Many in the industry believe the CLARITY Actâwith a Senate vote potentially as early as August 3âcould provide a nationwide regulatory framework and reduce this legal uncertainty.
Not financial or legal advice.
$POL $COIN $HOOD
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