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The latest NFP report came in far weaker than expected, and the market reaction is far from straightforward.
The headline payroll figure showed a 23K decline in jobs, compared with expectations of roughly +80K. May and June were also revised down by a combined 103K jobs.
That points to a meaningful cooling in the labor market.
But there’s a contradiction worth noting:
📉 Employment is weakening
📉 Wage growth slowed to just 0.1% MoM
📈 Yet unemployment improved from 4.2% to 4.1%
So the labor market is sending mixed signals rather than delivering a clear message.
The data also reduced expectations for a September rate hike, with the probability falling from above 50% to around 44%. Markets are increasingly questioning how much further the Fed can realistically tighten.
The cross-asset reaction is also worth watching closely.
🟡 $XAU: Gold pushed above $4,370, while futures settled around $4,399.7.
The key question now is whether weaker employment data eventually translates into a more dovish Fed outlook — and how markets position for it.
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