Started gambling on coins on Tuesday Hello there~ brothers Today, the top three on the list all have pretty good gains First is $ARB, which surged this morning, now up as much as 30%, but note that new tokens will be unlocked on September 16. Is this surge a pump by the whales to sell off? It probably won't go too high, so I suggest looking for an opportunity to short it Then there's $USELESS still baiting shorts; if the bears come up, the market might start moving, but if it can't rise, it might start harvesting the bulls Finally, $0G rose 30 points yesterday and is still baiting shorts today, currently consolidating sideways. It feels like it will rise further, but there's not much potential left today. Brothers, consider this; bulls won't gain much if they enter now ᜊ•͈⌔•͈ᜊ This is an unprofessional analysis, for reference only ✌︎ ॑꒳ ॑✌︎

#BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold ETF cooling off, retail investors taking over—BTC's new narrative is being tested After $BTC broke through 80,000, it is undergoing a critical test. The ETF inflows, which had been net positive for 9 consecutive days, stopped on August 28. But the price didn't collapse; it is still holding in the 78k-81k range. Why? Because retail investors have returned—the on-chain activity has risen to a nearly two-year high, small transfers have surged, and retail investors are taking over the baton from institutions. At the same time, the market's characterization of BTC is quietly changing. Its 90-day correlation with gold has risen above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped to 33%. This data is crucial: capital is treating BTC as "digital gold" for allocation, rather than a highly volatile tech stock. But controversy also lies here. After the ETF cool-down, retail sentiment comes quickly and fades quickly; whether it can sustain digesting high-level selling pressure is unknown. And whether BTC's linkage with gold represents a long-term asset allocation shift or a short-term risk-off sentiment phase resonance requires more time to verify. My judgment: Around 80,000 dollars, time is needed to exchange for space. Don't chase the rally; wait for evidence of ETF turning around again or sustained retail enthusiasm. The real main line is not the price, but that BTC's attribute definition is being rewritten—which is far more important than short-term price fluctuations.

Today is fun to play Hello~ brothers Whenever Bitcoin and Ethereum crash sharply, an altcoin surges. $ZORA has nearly risen 50% today, wow, a typical short squeeze. The fee rate has risen to -1%, even the market makers are overwhelmed by the fees ⊙ω⊙. It feels like it will continue upward. As long as the shorts don't die, the market makers won't stop. Those holding spot probably won't push it too high. Now it depends on whether the shorts can keep fueling it. Still holding the $LAB short position, it can't rise.

It's Monday, let's see if there's any direction today Hello, brothers~ First, about yesterday's $LAB, this guy surged more than twenty points. For this kind of speculative coin, I can only say short when it pumps up. The big players have already left, it can't take off, just pick up the money. Then after the $BTC options settlement, it couldn't hold either, dropping to around 78,000. Looks like it still needs to probe lower. Also, a major news: the US military launched a night raid on Iran last night, which is a new round of impact on BTC. Today $CL started to rally, not sure if it can reach 90 dollars. #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温

Is this wave coming at me? No way, $DOS big brother, I only invested 0.5u, set a stop loss and still got hit, pretty good, after getting hit it went up, no words, is no one playing this coin anymore? Even 0.5u gets hit, can't set stop loss in the future, setting it means losing money, lesson learned, I used to think it was bad luck, now I see clearly (◦`~´◦)

$BTC in the Hormuz deadlock: Don’t just focus on oil prices, watch how capital chooses The strait has been closed for seven months, with oil flow down to a quarter of pre-war levels, and Brent steady around $89. But the market has "desensitized"—the same news six months ago could have caused BTC to drop 10%, now the volatility is minimal. Why? The world is learning to operate with less oil, and the market pricing is no longer about the oil price itself, but about the duration of the disruption in the Middle East. $CL Will oil prices rise further? Demand has been crushed by high oil prices; the IEA forecasts a daily global oil demand reduction of 1.6 million barrels this year. Even if the strait reopens, the demand shock may last longer than supply recovery. Oil prices will likely linger in the $80-$90 range, making it difficult to break the previous high of $126. Where is the biggest impact? Not on oil prices, but on inflation and interest rate expectations. July’s PCE inflation remains stuck at 3.7%, energy prices won’t come down, and the Fed can’t ease. This is the real pressure on BTC—the repeated tug-of-war around the $80,000 mark isn’t due to geopolitical panic, but because interest rate expectations suppress risk appetite. Don’t bet on the direction of oil prices, bet on the certainty of capital flows. After the US expanded sanctions on Iran, capital flowed from tech stocks into gold and BTC, with BTC’s correlation to gold rising above 50%. I will maintain my BTC spot position and wait for the inflation path to become clear. Don’t just watch oil prices to trade BTC. The real main theme is—if inflation doesn’t come down, interest rates won’t either, and the ceiling for risk assets remains. #伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码

#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold correlation strengthens BTC high-level tug-of-war: a new narrative is forming, but don't rush to conclusions $BTC $ETH $XAU After BTC broke through 80,000, last night Wash's hawkish speech triggered a fierce counterattack from the bears. This week, the price has been oscillating between 78k and 81k, with neither bulls nor bears winning. Bullish ammunition comes from ETFs—net inflows exceeded $3 billion in the past two weeks, and spot buying is indeed entering the market. But the bears haven't been idle either: profit-taking is surging, options market makers are hedging at key price levels, and on-chain data even shows a rare situation where large long and short positions are simultaneously increasing, indicating significant divergence. What deserves more attention is the change in correlation. Grayscale data shows BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has risen from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to 33%. This suggests the market may be redefining BTC—from a "high beta tech stock" to a "hedge against currency depreciation." If this narrative holds, BTC's pricing logic will shift from interest rate expectations to fiscal credit and dollar system risk, potentially opening up a higher long-term valuation ceiling. But if it's just a temporary correlation, rising macro interest rates and deleveraging could push the price back down at any time. My judgment: the new narrative is emerging but far from confirmed. In the short term, whether ETF funds can continue to absorb high-level selling is the most practical indicator. Oscillation around 80,000 may continue; don't chase rallies or sell-offs—let the direction emerge on its own.

Waller's speech landed: hawkish, but not fatal First, the conclusion: hawkish bias, but the market has already priced in most of it. Three key points from the speech: First, inflation remains the number one enemy. Waller bluntly stated, "Summer inflation data was better than expected, but the underlying trend has not substantially improved." PCE year-over-year increase is 3.7%, far from the 2% target. He emphasized: we must be confident that inflation is falling toward the target fast enough, otherwise we still have work to do. Second, rejection of forward guidance. Waller clearly said that in normal times forward guidance should be limited to avoid over-committing to future rate paths. He even joked, "You can call it an outline, but definitely not forward guidance." The market should not expect the Fed to "feed" it; watch the data yourself. Third, the economy is strong, financial conditions are not tight. Corporate capital expenditures are up about 9% year-over-year, and the unemployment rate at 4.1% is at historic lows. After the speech, the probability of a September rate hike rose above 45%, US Treasury yields surged, and gold plunged $50. The crypto market dipped slightly, with BTC falling about 0.89% within fifteen minutes to $78,620 — a much smaller drop than expected. This indicates that after short squeeze pressure eased, spot buying is indeed coming in. Waller did not explicitly say a September hike is certain but hinted it is "not ruled out." This is not good news for risk assets, but the core drivers for BTC rising from 64,000 to 80,000 are Treasury liquidity operations and ETF inflows, not rate cut expectations. As long as these two logics hold, consolidation around 80,000 is highly probable. The negative news is priced in; next, we look at ETF data.

Wash will speak in half an hour, what should brothers pay the most attention to? $BTC Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote speech since taking office. Core PCE inflation in July was 3.3%, higher than expected, with about a 40% chance of a rate hike in September. Tonight's focus is: Will Wash be hawkish or not? Three possible scenarios: Hawkish (bearish): If Wash hints at preparing to raise rates due to high inflation, or emphasizes the Fed's independence and distance from the Treasury, Treasury yields will rise, the dollar will strengthen, and Bitcoin and gold will be suppressed. BTC, which just broke 80,000, may retest 75,000 or even lower. Dovish (bullish): If he tacitly allows the Treasury to intervene in the bond market to lower long-term rates, or only talks about structural issues without clear guidance, the market will interpret it as a "liquidity" signal, and BTC is expected to rise 2%-4%, pushing to 81,500-83,000. Ambiguous (most likely): Wash has always disliked forward guidance and once said "the bond market should interpret data on its own." Most likely, he will only talk about reform frameworks without giving clear commitments. This "non-commitment" itself may be interpreted by the market as dovish. My judgment: Wash personally holds over $100 million in crypto assets and clearly opposes CBDCs, so he is not an enemy of the crypto industry. But as Fed Chair, he cannot "liquefy" for the crypto circle. Tonight is more likely to be a "no conclusion" speech—there will be volatility, but directional signals will be hard to come by. Volatility will be greatly amplified before and after the speech, coupled with today's options expiration, the probability of a double kill for bulls and bears is not low. Don't bet on direction; wait for the speech to land and the market to digest it before making moves

#BTC surge and pullback, options expiration amplifies key level battle Tonight is options settlement, the final long-short showdown at the 80,000 level At 4 PM (Beijing time), $6.44 billion worth of Bitcoin options on Deribit will expire. This is the largest single-day settlement recently, so today will definitely not be calm. $BTC $ETH Key data: Call option open interest is heavily concentrated at the 75,000 and 80,000 strike prices, while the max pain point (the price most disadvantageous to buyers) is around 68,000 to 70,000, about $10,000 below the current price. Market makers will hedge by actively trading at these key levels, amplifying short-term volatility. Three possible scenarios: The most likely is a range-bound close between 78,000 and 80,000. Most contracts have little value left, and with over $3 billion net inflow into ETFs in the past 9 days, spot buying support exists, so the price is unlikely to crash. A bearish scenario is a pullback to 75,000—there is significant profit-taking near 80,000, and if ETF buying doesn’t keep up, the price may retest the 75k strike price, triggering long stop losses. A bullish scenario is holding above 80,000—this requires continued large ETF inflows after settlement, which would need an unexpectedly strong capital signal. My judgment: Volatility will increase around settlement, but the final settlement will most likely be near 79,000. Options expiration is just short-term noise; the core trend depends on whether ETF funds can sustain. Advice for brothers: Wait for a clear direction before acting. 80,000 is a psychological level, but holding above it will take time.