Yesterday morning in the live room, I positioned a short on $SNDK at 1455. Currently, I break down the reasons for the sharp drop: I am Brother Ci, with a short position at 1337.26, now around 1255, floating profit exceeding 80 points. The logic of this trade has been validated by the market. First, let's see why SanDisk fell from above 1400 to around 1255. On August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings report, with revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%, far exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; EPS was $39.25, also far surpassing expectations. Data center business revenue grew nearly 13 times year-over-year, and gross margin rose to a record high of 84.6%. The board also approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. But the market was not convinced. During regular trading hours, the stock fell 5.4%, and after-hours it dropped nearly 8% more to $1248. What crushed the stock price was the guidance for Q1 fiscal year 2027. SanDisk expects revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below FactSet's expectation of $10.82 billion. The gross margin guidance is 83% to 85%, indicating that the gross margin may enter a plateau at a high level. Goldman Sachs had previously warned that overly high market expectations make it difficult for SanDisk's stock price to benefit from the strong performance. "A brilliant past" is not enough to offset "a not-so-impressive future." Western Digital plunged over 11% after hours, SK Hynix fell nearly 10%, dragging down the entire storage sector. How to manage the short position at 1337.26: The earnings report is out, and the negative impact of guidance below expectations is still unfolding, confirming the bearish trend. But the short-term decline is already significant and requires orderly management. Move the stop loss. Move the stop loss down from above the entry price to 1320. The current price is 1255; 1320 means you still have profit even if there is a rebound. If the price continues down to around 1200, move the stop loss further down to 1280. Take profits in batches. The first target is 1200 to 1220, close 30% of the position. The second target is 1150 to 1160, close another 30%. The third target is 1080 to 1100, close the remaining 40%. If the price falls near 1200 with volume acceleration, don't rush to close all; let the remaining position run. Conditions to add to the position. If the price rebounds to the 1280 to 1300 range with low volume and stagnation, add to the short position, with an overall stop loss at 1320. If it breaks below 1200 with volume, add to the short position, move the stop loss up to 1230, and target 1150. Exit conditions. If the price breaks above 1320 with volume and holds, it means the negative earnings impact has been digested; close all short positions. When the price reaches the 1080 to 1100 target, close all positions; don't be greedy for the last leg. This trade from 1337 short downwards is on the right track. The core driver is earnings guidance below expectations, and the storage sector sentiment is still transmitting. Move the stop loss to lock in profits, take profits in batches to capture swings, and add positions waiting for rebound confirmation. Don't let floating profits turn into floating losses, and don't exit too early in panic. Brother Ci is done. Think it over. #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH

#财报观察员：Mixed earnings, lock-up expiration approaching! What’s next for SpaceX? I’m Brother Ci. SpaceX’s first earnings report is out, with core metrics better than expected, AI business losses narrowing stronger than expected, but AI capital expenditures higher than expected. The stock price turned down after hours. The earnings themselves aren’t bad; what’s bad is tomorrow’s lock-up expiration. The performance itself isn’t bad, but the market chose to sell after the earnings report, indicating that funds are preemptively avoiding tomorrow’s $100 billion lock-up expiration. About 911.5 million shares will be unlocked on August 6, accounting for 20% of the total unlockable shares. At $110 per share, that’s over $100 billion, exceeding the current public float. Good earnings but high capital expenditures, combined with the pressure of the $100 billion lock-up expiration, lead funds to choose to exit first. Impact on SanDisk SpaceX’s stock turned down after hours, AMD dropped over 9%, Palantir rose nearly 30% as an exception. Tech stocks are internally diverging, with those delivering earnings rising and those with high capital expenditures falling. SanDisk’s earnings report is imminent, and market expectations are already very high. If capital expenditure guidance also exceeds expectations, it may replicate SpaceX’s trend. The storage sector has risen significantly recently, so it’s advisable not to hold heavy positions before the earnings report. What’s next? At this position, SpaceX faces real short-term lock-up pressure. But lock-up expiration doesn’t mean all shares will be sold; the founder’s shares are locked until 2027, and early investors and employees are the main sources of selling pressure. The stock price is already nearly 20% below the IPO price. How many are willing to sell at this level is the biggest variable tomorrow. Brother Ci is done. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SPCX