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A "two-front war" is choking the global fuel supply This is not an ordinary oil price surge. This is the simultaneous outage of the world's two largest diesel exporters — the Middle East and Russia. On August 17, the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran officially expired. No renewal. No negotiations. Nothing. On August 15, only 5 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. On August 16, zero. Before the war, the daily average was 130 ships. Traffic volume has dropped to about 1% of pre-crisis levels. The Iranian parliament speaker has already declared: the strait will remain closed until the US meets the conditions. On the other side, Trump said, "The Strait of Hormuz will soon be declared US territory." Both sides are escalating. No one is backing down. Now look at Eastern Europe. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refining facilities have not stopped. In August, the Saratov refinery (150,000 bpd), Syzran refinery (177,000 bpd), and Ufaneftekhim refinery (190,000 bpd) were bombed in succession. The Orsk refinery has been shut down for half a year — with an annual processing capacity of 6.6 million tons. Russia has extended its diesel export ban until January next year. In July, Russian seaborne refined product exports fell 33.3% month-on-month and plummeted 54.7% year-on-year. Fuel shortages in Russia have spread to at least 10 regions, with the governor of Orenburg implementing odd-even license plate refueling restrictions. Two fronts have simultaneously broken down. This is not a coincidence; this is systemic collapse. Russian supply cut + Middle East blockade + global refining capacity gap. Triple overlap. According to the International Energy Agency: in July, global refinery crude processing averaged 80.9 million barrels per day, 5 million barrels per day less than the same period last year. What does 5 million barrels per day mean? It’s equivalent to the entire daily refining capacity of Germany plus France disappearing into thin air. Now the world only has one "major supply hub still operating normally" — the United States. But what about US inventories? As of August 7, US distillate fuel inventories were 107.1 million barrels — the lowest for this time of year since 1996. The lowest in 30 years. US refiners are desperately exporting — in the first week of August, distillate fuel exports hit 1.9 million barrels per day, a record high. But the more they export, the emptier domestic inventories become. On one side, the world is scrambling to buy; on the other, domestic supplies are running low. The market has gone crazy. On Monday, the crack spread between US diesel futures and WTI crude oil surged to $102.2 per barrel — a historic high. The previous record was $89 set in October 2022. That’s $13 higher. European diesel prices surged to $167 per barrel last weekend — less than $90 a year ago. Almost doubled. Geopolitical conflict → energy shortage → inflation → US Treasury yields → risk asset pricing. Every link in this transmission chain is tightening. Energy prices combined with inflation risk are pushing US Treasury yields higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering around 4.7%. The opportunity cost of holding risk assets like Bitcoin is rising. This is not a narrative that "Bitcoin is an inflation hedge" can solve. When Treasury yields rise, capital flows from risk assets to risk-free assets. Simply put: the more expensive diesel gets, the riskier your positions become. What’s the scariest part? It’s the season. The Northern Hemisphere is about to enter harvest season — agricultural machinery runs on diesel. Then comes winter heating — also diesel. Demand will only grow, supply will only tighten. Bank of America bluntly states: the market is entering the demand peak season with "almost no margin for error." No room for mistakes. Any new attack, any new bad news — can push prices even higher. To be brutally honest. This is not 2022. In 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war just started, the world still had strategic reserves to release. What about now? US diesel inventories are at a 30-year low. European inventories are near the lows seen during the 2022 energy crisis. China has not yet resumed normal exports. All buffers are gone. Every shock hits directly to the bone. This "two-front war" is not choking oil prices — it’s choking the price of food on your table (transport relies on diesel). it’s choking your heating bills (heating relies on diesel). it’s choking the risk premium on your holdings (inflation → interest rates → risk assets). Every line ultimately leads to your wallet. What do you think will happen to BTC after diesel breaks $100? $CL $BZ

ETH at $1880, have you been shaken out? First, look at the surface: it’s moving sideways in a straight line, retail investors are going crazy. In the past week, it dropped less than 2%, almost flat over a month, and YTD it’s still down 36%. The price is tightly stuck in the $1876-1886 range, a $10 band, with MACD flattening into a straight line and volume shrinking as if trading was halted. A symmetrical triangle is converging to the end, price stuck near the 20/50 EMA crossover at around $1880; the longer the compression, the more violent the breakout. First thing: on-chain activity surged 75%, but the price didn’t move. From August 8 to August 15, ETH daily new addresses jumped from 121,000 to 213,000, a weekly surge of 90,000, up 75%. Historically, this kind of signal often leads price movements; similar data anomalies appeared before the 2020 DeFi Summer and the 2023 ETF hype. The staking ratio has soared to a record 34%, with supply locked up tight. Second thing: staking ETFs have launched, but retail hasn’t caught on yet. BlackRock’s staking ETH product has launched and started distributing yields, and Fidelity is pushing an Ethereum ETF application with nearly full staking. After five consecutive weeks of net inflows, the ETF saw only a slight outflow of a few million dollars last week, which is normal profit-taking. Institutions buying ETH can earn both price appreciation and interest (staking rewards). This is more attractive than pure BTC ETFs. Third thing: the technicals have reached a critical decision point. The daily converging triangle is at its end, with price compressed in the $1860-1920 range, a $60 band. All timeframes indicate the direction will be chosen soon. If volume breaks above $1920 and closes there, the target is $2000-2100. If volume breaks below $1860 and confirms, a pullback to $1800 or even $1750 is expected. Key levels: Resistance above: 1900-1920 → 1930-1960 → 2000 Support below: 1850-1860 (strong support) → 1800 → 1750-1700 Trading strategy: Short-term traders: Light long positions near 1860, stop loss at 1830, target 1900-1920. Light short positions near 1920, stop loss at 1950, target 1860. Range trading with high sell and low buy. Swing traders: Wait for volume to break and hold above 1920 to go long, target 2000-2100; or break below 1860 with volume to go short, target 1800-1750. Long-term believers: Buy and hold below 1800 without hesitation. With staking yields + institutional ETFs + upgrade expectations, the target by end of 2026 is 2500-3000.

SNDK at $1,650, did you miss out? Let's look at the surface first: from hell to heaven in just two weeks. After the August 5 earnings report, it once dropped to 1,350, hitting a low of 998 at the end of July — nearly halving from the ATH of 2,354. But starting August 10, it surged violently, skyrocketing 17.6% on Investor Day, August 13, and rising another 7.39% on August 14 to close at 1,641. In two weeks, it bounced back from 1,000 to 1,650, a rebound of over 60%. Daily candles show consecutive gains with volume, weekly chart shows a strong reversal, RSI around 44 not overbought yet, this is not a rebound, it's a trend reversal. First thing: Investor Day blew up, SNDK is no longer a "cyclical stock." On August 13, SanDisk held its 2026 Investor Day in New York, unveiling a long-term financial model that stunned the audience: FY2028-2030: Revenue growth in the mid-to-high double digits Non-GAAP gross margin about 80% Non-GAAP operating margin about 75% Adjusted free cash flow margin about 50% 100% of excess cash after investments returned to shareholders Second thing: JPMorgan directly says: there's still 47% upside. On August 14, JPMorgan upgraded SNDK from "Neutral" to "Overweight" with a target price of $2,250. Analyst Harlan Sur said: SNDK is uniquely positioned in many ways to capture the structural inflection point in NAND demand driven by AI inference. He also emphasized the value of the NBM long-term agreements — 8 NBM agreements signed, total contract value about $94 billion, average term over 4 years, structurally resetting SNDK's margins and significantly reducing cyclicality. Third thing: 8 NBM agreements locking in $93.9 billion guaranteed minimum revenue. This is SNDK's strongest fundamental. The company has signed NBM long-term supply agreements with 8 data center customers, including 3 major US hyperscale cloud providers. Hard data: Guaranteed minimum total revenue $93.9 billion Remaining performance obligations $91.1 billion Financial guarantee mechanism $16.5 billion Covers over 50% capacity in fiscal 2027, about 2/3 capacity in fiscal 2028 Trading strategy Short-term traders: Light long positions near 1650, wait for a pullback to 1600-1620, stop loss at 1540-1550, target 1720-1750 → 1800-1850 If volume breaks through 1680-1700 on Monday and holds, add to longs, target 1800 Swing traders: Partial profit-taking near 1680-1700, keep base positions for higher targets. Consider reducing positions if it breaks below 1550 with volume Long-term believers: Ignore short-term noise, invest based on fundamentals. Betting on AI storage super cycle + valuation logic reconstruction, target $2,250-$3,000+

Probability of a September rate hike falls below 40%: Is the BTC liquidity inflection point here? Last night, the U.S. Department of Commerce released data: July retail sales month-over-month -0.6%, while the market expected +0.1%. June still showed positive growth of 0.2%, but in just one month, it reversed completely. Consumption accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP; when this collapses, the entire economic narrative needs to be rewritten. On the same day, the University of Michigan's preliminary August consumer sentiment index was 51.0, expected 54.5, down from 55.2 in July. This is the first decline in three months, a month-over-month drop of 7.6%. Americans not only have less money to spend, but they've also lost confidence in "having money to spend in the future." Let's lay out the cards from the past week: July CPI year-over-year 3.4%, lower than the previous 3.5%, core CPI year-over-year dropped to 2.5%. Inflation is cooling down. July PPI month-over-month 0%, expected 0.2%. Producer prices are flat. July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, expected an increase of 80,000. May and June data were cumulatively revised down by 103,000. Four arrows fired simultaneously: CPI cooling + PPI flat + nonfarm collapse + retail plunge. Consumption stalled, employment collapsed, prices stopped rising—what reason does the Fed have to continue raising rates? On August 5, CME FedWatch showed a 58.4% chance of a September rate hike. August 7 nonfarm data dropped it to 55%. August 12 CPI data dropped it to 48%. August 13 PPI data dropped it to 38%. In one week, the rate hike probability fell from 58% to 38%, a 35% discount. The probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 59.9%. One data point after another is dismantling the hawkish fortress brick by brick. On August 14, BTC fell back to $62,773, still hovering around $60,000. QCP Capital bluntly stated: geopolitical risks, high oil prices, and global liquidity uncertainty—these macro headwinds have outweighed all positive economic data. In other words: it should have risen, but it didn’t. The rate hike boot is being pulled back, the liquidity inflection point is coming—but BTC just won’t fly. The rate hike probability dropped from 58% to 38%, yet BTC is still hovering around $60,000. Either the market is wrong, or something bigger is brewing. I personally lean toward the latter. Three consecutive months of major inflation data have failed to drive BTC’s movement. This asset, which should trade based on rate cut expectations, is now completely driven by other factors—U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices breaking $100, institutional sell-offs. Macro positives are completely offset by geopolitical negatives. Oil prices can’t stay at $100 forever, the Middle East can’t be at war forever, but the Fed’s rate decisions come every month. When these short-term noises fade, the long-term trend of liquidity easing will be late but not absent. To be honest— Now is not the time to panic, but to open your eyes wide. The rate hike probability has already fallen below 40%, and the market is repricing. If there really is no rate hike in September, or even talks of rate cuts begin—BTC’s current price is a golden pit.

SEC stands down, Congress on summer break—U.S. regulation stalled on two fronts, CLARITY Act cooling off BTC is consolidating around $63,000-$64,000, with daily volatility under 2%. XRP is stuck at $1.009, neither up nor down. The market is eerily quiet. But beneath the calm, two time bombs have simultaneously hit the pause button. You think regulation is moving forward? No, regulators are on summer vacation. First front: the CLARITY Act was tossed into the congressional summer recess trash bin. This bill passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a bipartisan 15-9 vote, once making the entire industry believe that "regulatory clarity" was finally coming. So what happened? The Senate went on a five-week recess, pushing the full chamber vote to September. North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis said, "The chances of the bill passing may have dropped by 50%." Why the delay? The two parties are still arguing—Democrats demand stricter restrictions on officials' crypto asset interests, especially scrutinizing the Trump family's ties to certain crypto projects. A bill meant to bring "clarity" to the industry has become a mess itself. Negotiations have dragged on for nearly 11 months, with the bill ballooning by 300 pages. Is 300 pages of "clarity" really clarity? Second front: the SEC stood the entire industry up at the last minute before a meeting. The "Regulation Crypto" public meeting scheduled for August 14 (today) was suddenly canceled by the SEC on August 13. The official reason: "unforeseen scheduling issues." What was this meeting supposed to discuss? Creating a customized issuance system for crypto asset investment contracts. Simply put, it would open a compliant "entry point" for crypto startups—allowing them to raise funds compliantly without fully meeting the high thresholds of traditional securities issuance. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has consistently prioritized this and pushed for so-called "innovation exemptions" and "safe harbor" mechanisms. What happened? The meeting was canceled a day before, with no new date set. Even worse, the third front: the tokenization innovation exemption was also halted. According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the SEC's tokenization innovation exemption has been "further delayed." Why? Because Section 10505 of the CLARITY Act concerning tokenization is still being tugged back and forth by various parties. Got it? Congressional legislation is stalled, and the SEC dares not move forward with rulemaking—fearing it might undermine Congress's compromise. Two paths, waiting on each other. No one wants to make the first move. Here’s the harsh truth: U.S. crypto regulation is now a game of "who blinks first loses." The CLARITY Act is stuck in Congress—parties arguing over whether officials can buy crypto. The SEC is stuck at its own doorstep—"scheduling issues" have killed a year’s worth of rulemaking for the entire industry. Congress says "wait until September," the SEC says "wait for notice." Can your projects waiting for regulatory approval to launch compliantly afford to wait? Can your startups waiting for "safe harbor" protection afford to wait? Can your crypto afford to wait? The current situation is: Legislation—stalled. Rulemaking—stalled. Tokenization innovation exemption—stalled. All three legs are broken. Bitcoin consolidating at 63,000 is not because the market lacks direction—it’s because everyone who could provide direction is on vacation and delaying. Some say this is a "short-term wait." Wake up. This is not waiting; the difficulty of progress is so high that neither side dares to move. The CLARITY Act passed committee in May but still hasn’t had a full chamber vote by August—three months gone. The SEC’s Regulation Crypto has been teased since early this year, yet no proposal vote has been completed. How "short-term" is short-term? Three months? Six months? Or until after the 2026 midterm elections? To be honest: U.S. regulators are not inactive—they are unable to act. Congress is divided, and no one dares to concede. The SEC wants to push rules but fears clashing with congressional legislation. The result: the entire industry is left out in the cold, waiting for answers. And that answer might not come in September either. The Senate reconvenes on September 14, but reconvening doesn’t mean passage. With unresolved partisan differences, the chance of passage is only 19%. Are you still waiting for "regulatory clarity"? The word "clarity" may never have existed in this industry.

4 billion turned into 3 trillion, Harmony needs to roll back—do you support changing the ledger, or accept losses? If your banking system is hacked and trillions of bills suddenly appear out of nowhere, and the bank says, "Let's revert the ledger, everyone pretends it never happened"—would you support that? Most people might say: I support it, why should hackers make money? But what if I say this bank is called "blockchain"? Do you still support it? On August 12, the long-established public chain Harmony ran into trouble. On-chain analyst Juiceberg was the first to discover: someone exploited the "empty block" vulnerability to mint about 4 billion ONE tokens out of thin air. This accounts for 26% of the total supply. Of these, about 2.8 billion coins were quickly transferred to major exchanges. ONE's price once plunged more than 50%. Things have already exploded, haven't they? But even more explosive things were yet to come. CertiK monitoring shows that the number of anomalous minted ONE has exceeded 3 trillion, involving six anomalous blocks. 4 billion, now 3 trillion. 26%, which becomes 2000%. You read that right. Harmony's total supply was originally about 15 billion coins. Now, there has been an extra 3 trillion out of thin air. The entire tokenomics collapsed overnight. Harmony responded quickly: Emergency deployment of patch v2026.1.1 to prevent further minting Pause of cross-chain bridges The United Exchange froze funds for four wallet addresses Most importantly: on-chain rollback plans are being advanced What does rollback mean? This means restoring the entire chain to its state before the attack. It's equivalent to wiping out all transactions after August 12—including legitimate transfers from innocent users, DeFi operations, and DEX trading. Benefit: Hackers' efforts were wasted, and 3 trillion ONE disappeared from the ledger. Cost: The phrase "immutable" in blockchain has since become a joke. This reminds me of The DAO incident in 2016. Ethereum was hacked with 3.6 million ETH, and Vitalik chose a hard fork rollback to return the tokens to investors. And what happened? Ethereum split. On one side is the rollback Ethereum (ETH), on the other is the insistence on the immutable Ethereum Classic (ETC). Ten years have passed, and supporters on both sides are still arguing. But today, Harmony is facing an even more extreme situation than The DAO— The DAO is "If your money is stolen, I'll help you get it back." Harmony is "The money is printed out, I tear up the ledger and rewrite it." The former is about recovering stolen assets, while the latter is directly altering history. So the question returns to the beginning— Do you support rollback? Those who support rollback will say: 3 trillion ONE tokens appeared out of thin air, ruining the tokenomics Without rollback, holders' assets are diluted by 2000%. Is that fair? Hackers make a fortune—why? The project team is responsible for protecting user interests Those who oppose rollback will say: The core value of blockchain is immutability If you can roll back once today, you can roll back a second time tomorrow Then I'd rather just deposit it in the bank—at least bank changes require approval You keep talking about "decentralization," and that's it? Both voices have their reasons. But the most painful truth is—no matter what you choose, someone will get hurt. Rollback: Innocent users' normal transactions after August 12 are wiped out. No rollback: All ONE holders' assets are diluted into scrap paper. No winners. Even more heartbreaking— This isn't the first time Harmony has had trouble. In 2022, Harmony's cross-chain bridge was hacked by North Korea, resulting in a loss of about $100 million. At that time, the community helped track the funds, but the project team didn't give them a cent, only saying, "Well done." So this time, the well-known on-chain detective ZachXBT directly refused to provide free assistance. "Last time I helped you chase after 100 million US dollars, and there wasn't even a thank-you fee. This time, no negotiation." Trust is something that can be overdrawn once and it's gone. As of August 13, Harmony has reached consensus with validators and exchanges on rollback paths, and the patch has been activated. Rollback, most likely to be executed. But the real impact of this event goes far beyond the price of the ONE. It is questioning every crypto insider: do you believe in "code is law," or "the project team calls the shots"? If code can be rolled back, laws can be changed— So, what are the differences between blockchain and traditional finance? Do you support Harmony rollback? If one day your heavily invested project encounters the same issue, how would you handle it?

Russia Sets Quotas for Retail Crypto Purchases in September: Is This a Crackdown or an Official Opening? When seeing "Russia restricts retail crypto trading," many people's first reaction might be: Russia is about to ban Crypto again. Actually, the direction is quite the opposite—starting September 1, Russia officially enshrines in law for the first time that ordinary retail investors can buy Crypto through regulated channels, but this door is not fully open; instead, a speed limiter is installed first. Ordinary non-qualified investors must first pass a risk test, and can buy up to 300,000 rubles per year through a single intermediary, roughly $3600–$3700 worth of Crypto. Interestingly, this quota is per intermediary, not a total of 300,000 rubles across all accounts nationwide. Qualified investors also need to pass the test but have no such amount limit. So what exactly can ordinary people buy? According to the draft implementation plan announced by the Russian Central Bank on August 11, BTC, ETH, and USDT are currently listed within the scope of publicly organized trading. Why these three? The core criteria are market size, liquidity, and sufficiently long trading history. Note, this is still a draft with public consultation until August 24, so the final version may be adjusted. Therefore, the real translation of this matter is: Russia is not telling retail investors "you can't buy coins," but rather "you can buy legally, but first take a test, have a quota, and start with large assets like BTC/ETH/USDT." Meanwhile, the ban on using Crypto to directly purchase goods and services within Russia remains. In other words, Crypto is allowed as an investment asset but not yet as everyday currency. I think this is more worth watching than simply labeling it as "bullish/bearish." Previously, a large amount of Russia's Crypto market trading happened outside the regulatory system; now banks, brokers, trading platforms, and digital custodians have formal rules to follow. Regulation is indeed tighter, but Crypto is also genuinely transitioning from a "gray area" to an official financial product. [My Judgment] Moderately positive on BTC and ETH in the medium to long term, but hardly worth chasing short-term gains based on this news. [Scenario A] If the September rules are smoothly implemented and major Russian banks and brokers start truly offering BTC, ETH, and USDT trading access, a wave of new funds without previous formal access may emerge; [Scenario B] If the 300,000 ruble quota, testing, and platform regulation are too strict, users may continue using existing OTC channels, meaning the actual new funds from "legalization" could be much smaller than the headline suggests. Currently, BTC is around $63,500, down about 1% in 24 hours; ETH is near $1880, also weak in 24 hours. For BTC, I continue to watch $63K support, $64K as the strong/weak boundary, and $65K confirmation; for ETH, $1850 support, $1900 strong/weak boundary, and $1950 resistance. Regulatory news can change long-term entry points, but for prices to truly strengthen, these levels must be reclaimed first. In short: Russia's previous issue was "can retail investors buy Crypto through formal channels?" Now the answer is starting to become "yes, but first take a test and there's an annual quota." This is neither a full liberalization nor a ban, but Crypto is beginning to truly enter Russia's financial regulatory system.