观势而行｜Alpha
观势而行｜Alpha
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In the early hours of September 17, the FOMC raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first rate hike in three years, with a unanimous 12-0 vote.
What’s truly worth noting this time isn’t the "25bp rate hike" itself, but the signal Powell sent out:
Inflation remains high, and it’s been high for quite some time.
This year’s data hasn’t shown the Federal Reserve clear enough signs of inflation easing. The dot plot is also straightforward — there could be another hike this year. (Reuters)
How did the market react?
BTC surged past 80,000 but then immediately dropped back near 76,000.
ETH was weaker, with around 2,400 becoming a key short-term dividing line.
So don’t rush to shout "altcoin season is here."
Although the rate hike has landed, the high interest rate environment is not over.
And this time it’s not a "one and done" scenario; we still need to watch inflation, employment, and economic data going forward.
I’m more inclined to expect:
High-level volatility + deleveraging + repeated shakeouts.
What truly determines the next trend isn’t this single candlestick, but whether the market can restore risk appetite under a high interest rate environment.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
9.17 Morning Market Review.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points overnight. $BTC first surged then fluctuated, closing this morning with a bullish candlestick featuring upper and lower shadows.
Honestly, this rate hike itself was not unexpected.
The market had basically priced it in over the past couple of days. What’s really worth watching are Powell’s subsequent statements and how the market will digest this rate hike going forward.
Back to the chart, BTC is still within a descending wedge.
The previous 76,500 support has now turned into short-term resistance, a role reversal.
Next, watch the 76,500 level:
If several consecutive solid bullish candles break out with volume and also break the descending trendline, we might see a bull flag rebound.
If it hits 76,500 and gets pushed back down, it will likely continue to consolidate within the channel.
On the downside, I’m mainly watching 75,600.
If this level breaks, the next support is at 73,700.
BTC has indeed been a bit tough to trade recently.
So I’m currently choosing to stay out of the market, waiting for it to form a familiar structure before entering.
In the meantime, I’ve been focusing more on $ETH and $XAU.
Not every market move requires participation.
When you don’t understand, staying out is also a form of trading.
-38.89%
Snapshot at Sep 17, 2026, 10:52
Last night, BTC completed a full cycle of "death and rebirth" in 7 minutes.
With a 25 basis point rate hike, BTC first surged from 75,500 to 76,500.
Market: Bad news is fully priced in, buy.
Then Powell spoke, and BTC was hammered back down near 75,000.
Market: Wait, it seems like he hasn't finished speaking yet...
A few minutes later, BTC bounced back from 75,000 to 76,300.
This is the crypto world.
You study on-chain data, capital flows, technical indicators all night,
only to find out in the end:
What really determines your profit or loss might just be the tone of a single sentence at the press conference.
Now I’m actually more focused on 75,000.
This level has been fiercely contested by the market.
If it breaks down, it could mean further bearish expectations in trading.
If it holds, at least it shows there’s still capital willing to buy here.
Moreover, leverage isn’t particularly crowded this time, meaning there aren’t many positions that "must liquidate."
So there’s no need to rush guessing the direction next.
If 75,000 holds, then watch if the rebound can continue.
If 75,000 breaks, then watch if the bears can open up more space.
The market won’t rise just because you’re bullish, nor fall just because you’re bearish.
Survive first, and the direction will naturally reveal the answer.
Personal trading observation, not investment advice.
Over the past decade, $BTC BTC has been all about the "halving cycle."
But recently, I've been increasingly feeling that the market might be telling a different story next:
Fiat currency credit.
The yields on U.S. and Japanese government bonds keep rising, and behind this is actually one problem — global debt is growing larger and larger, so how long can monetary credit hold up?
But here I actually have a question:
Does a rise in bond yields necessarily mean good news for BTC?
If high inflation, high interest rates, and tightening liquidity first crush risk assets together, does BTC also have to endure this phase first?
So now I won't be outright bullish just because of the "fiat credit" story.
The story can be told for a long time, but the price ultimately has to find its own path.
What’s truly worth watching next is whether BTC can gradually show a different trend from traditional risk assets under macro pressure.
$BTC 75800, are you ready to go long or short?
At this position, I actually find it quite interesting.
Because the negative news these past two days has come one after another.
The CLARITY Act didn’t pass, BTC once dropped below 75,000; tonight it’s the Fed’s turn.
But the question is:
With so many negative factors, has BTC really collapsed?
Not at the moment.
It has already retraced a large portion from the high, and now it’s moving sideways in the narrow range of 75400–76100.
So tonight’s FOMC meeting will very likely decide the next direction.
First, let’s talk about regulation.
The Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act was 49-50, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold, which is clearly a regulatory negative. After the vote, BTC once dropped to around $75,000, and crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Circle also came under obvious pressure.
But this is a negative that has already materialized.
What the market is really waiting for now is:
The Federal Reserve.
The market has already highly priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, with the target range possibly raised to 3.75%–4.00%, and this would be the first rate hike since 2023.
So what’s really worth watching tonight is not just:
Whether they hike or not.
But:
What Powell says after the hike.
If:
Hike + dovish bias
Then the negative has landed, and the market might first run a repair rally.
If:
Hike + more hawkish + long-term yields continue to surge
Then we need to be cautious of BTC testing lower support again.
Technically, I’m only watching a few levels:
Upside:
76500–77100
78000
79500
Downside:
75400–75000
73200–74000
Especially 75000.
This level has been tested repeatedly.
So tonight, I actually don’t want to prematurely shout:
"BTC is going up."
Or:
"BTC is going to crash."
I want to watch one thing more:
If the Fed really gives a hawkish signal, after BTC drops near 75000, can the bears continue to push it down?
If yes, it means there’s still room below.
If it can’t be pushed down, and even quickly rebounds...
That would be interesting.
Because it means:
So many negatives can’t break through the key support, the market may have already priced in some expectations in advance.
So my trading idea tonight is very simple:
Above 75000, don’t rush to short.
If it breaks below 75000 with volume, then look at 73200–74000.
If it climbs back above 76500–77100, first watch for sentiment repair.
As for whether it can hold above 78000 again, that’s a bigger question.
No guessing tonight.
Let the Fed speak, let the price make the choice.
After all, the worst thing in trading is not being wrong.
It’s when the market hasn’t chosen a direction yet, but you’ve already made the decision for it.
+164.91%
Snapshot at Sep 16, 2026, 16:13
$BTC｜CLARITY failed, and the Federal Reserve is about to reveal its hand tonight.
In the past two days, the crypto world has faced two major tests in a row.
One is regulation.
The other is interest rates and liquidity.
The CLARITY Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold, stalling legislative progress, and BTC also dropped to around 75,000.
But honestly, the bill not passing itself isn’t the biggest problem.
What really concerns me is:
Regulatory bearish news just landed, and the Fed is about to hold a meeting.
So don’t just focus on CLARITY tonight.
What truly determines where the market goes next is still the FOMC and Powell’s statements.
Right now, I’m focusing on a few key levels:
BTC: 75,000
Holding this means the panic selling hasn’t yet completely broken the structure.
If 75,000 breaks down with volume, then we look for new support lower.
ETH: 2,400
If this level fails, short-term pressure continues.
If it climbs back above 2,450, then watch 2,500.
SOL: 100
Whether 100 holds is also a very direct indicator of risk appetite.
But there’s one thing I’m more concerned about now:
I’m not in a hurry to be bearish.
Why?
Because negative news is coming one after another.
What’s really worth watching is:
After all the bearish news is on the table, can the price still keep falling?
If the Fed remains hawkish tonight, but BTC stubbornly refuses to break below 75,000, or even dips but then slowly recovers...
That would actually indicate:
The market may have already priced in a lot of the bearish news in advance.
Of course, if 75,000 breaks down with volume, that’s a different scenario.
So tonight I’m watching one thing:
75,000.
Don’t rush to call a bull or a bear yet.
How the market moves is far more important than our guesses.#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
-56.98%
Snapshot at Sep 16, 2026, 14:05
$BTC｜I won't short at this position, waiting for a rebound.
From the 4-hour chart, after BTC fell back from around 79570, the highs have been moving down continuously, with almost no decent counterattack during the process.
So currently, the overall structure is still dominated by bears.
Although there was some support after the 74909 spike, the rebound strength was clearly insufficient. Now it’s more of a low-level sideways consolidation, and the previously broken area has not been reclaimed yet.
Therefore, I lean towards:
First a rebound → digest the chips → then watch for a second dip.
Looking at the 1-hour chart.
After 74909, there has been continuous small-bodied sideways movement, indicating the short-term selling speed has started to slow down.
Shorting directly at this position, I think the cost-effectiveness is average.
Instead, be wary of a technical rebound.
Focus on 76000–76300.
This is a dense trading area after the previous breakdown. If the rebound reaches here but volume does not increase and the candlestick bodies start to shrink, I will pay more attention to bears re-entering.
So my idea is simple:
Don’t short at the low; wait for the market to bring the price back.
$BTC
Short near 76000–76300
First target: 75400
Second target: 74600
$ETH
Short near 2420–2435
First target: 2385
Second target: 2355
If BTC stabilizes again and effectively breaks through 76300, this bearish strategy needs to be reassessed.
Now it’s not about who dares to short, but waiting for a more comfortable position.
Trade when the market gives an opportunity; wait if it doesn’t. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Let's first clarify the market situation today.
Last night's sell-off shouldn't be seen as just a technical correction.
The CLARITY Act was blocked, the Federal Reserve's rate decision is approaching, and the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5%. Several pressures coincided, causing risk assets to come under pressure together, with BTC dropping as low as around 74913.
Now, let's focus on a few key levels.
$BTC｜75772
75000 is the first line of defense.
If it holds here, the short-term will continue to consolidate.
If it climbs back above 78000, then sentiment can be considered truly starting to recover.
But if 75000 is effectively broken, I will focus on the 73000–74000 range.
So at this point, I’m actually not keen on shorting.
Positioning is very important.
⸻
$ETH｜2400
This level is also critical.
If 2400 breaks, short-term pressure continues.
If it climbs back above 2450, then look toward around 2500.
ETH’s current movement also indicates one thing:
The market isn’t completely out of funds, but is actively reducing risk exposure to high-beta assets.
⸻
$ZEC｜1117
This is what I want to watch closely this morning.
It followed the market with a quick drop earlier and is now around 1100.
If 1100 can hold, I will temporarily interpret it as:
A pullback in a strong asset.
If it breaks back above 1150, the upside can continue to 1200 or even 1250.
But if 1100 is directly broken, don’t try to hold on stubbornly.
When a strong asset truly weakens, it can fall quickly as well.
⸻
So my current understanding is not simply “the whole market is falling together.”
Rather:
Funds are starting to actively shrink high-beta risk.
For large-cap assets like BTC and ETH, watch key supports first; for altcoins, be more selective about levels.
And today’s real big test is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
The market’s expectation for a 25 basis point hike is already very high, with the latest pricing exceeding 90%; so what’s really worth watching is not whether they hike or not.
I’m more focused on three things:
The rate hike + Powell’s statement + long-term US Treasury yields.
If the hike happens but Powell doesn’t continue to signal more hawkishness, the market might actually see a recovery after the initial negative reaction.
But if after the hike, the dot plot, inflation outlook, and future rate path remain hawkish, and the 10-year Treasury yield stays near 5%...
Then risk assets will continue to face pressure.
So today I won’t rush to guess the direction.
Watch 75000 for BTC defense.
Watch 78000 for sentiment recovery.
In between, try to avoid ineffective trades.
Let the market deliver the answers first.
What I want to see more than whether BTC can immediately rebound is:
After the FOMC, whether funds are willing to come back or not.#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议
120,000 liquidations, $670 million evaporated.
This wave early this morning was indeed tough.
The Senate voted 49 in favor and 50 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to advance the CLARITY Act.
$BTC BTC briefly fell below $75,000, and crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Circle also dropped significantly.
So the first reaction in the group chat was basically the same:
"It's over, regulation is getting stricter again."
But I found an interesting perspective from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse:
If the technology is better, faster, and stronger, it will eventually be adopted by the market.
Translated into plain language, this means:
One bill failing to pass does not mean the entire crypto industry is finished.
Of course, the short-term pain is real.
Your positions shrinking is real.
Coinbase dropping 10% is real.
Market sentiment being crushed is real.
So telling you "don’t panic" at this moment doesn’t really mean much.
But looking at the bigger picture:
The failure of CLARITY affects the speed of regulatory framework progress, not the sudden invalidation of blockchain technology.
And crypto regulation in the U.S. is not completely stalled now.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong previously stated that regardless of whether CLARITY passes, the SEC and CFTC may continue to advance regulatory clarity through rulemaking.
So I’m more willing to interpret today as:
The regulatory path has encountered political resistance, not that the crypto industry has been sentenced to death.
What’s truly worth watching is what happens next.
If CLARITY is renegotiated and the SEC/CFTC continue to push rules, institutionalization of the crypto industry may still proceed.
But if Congress cannot reach consensus for a long time, regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. will persist longer.
These two outcomes have completely different impacts on the market.
So I won’t simply interpret today’s big bearish candle as:
"Crypto is finished."
Nor will I comfort myself with:
"The bad news is over, it will rise soon."
The market has already told us with price:
In the short term, funds are indeed repricing.
As for whether the long-term story is over?
I think it’s too early to conclude now.
Bills can fail, regulatory paths can change, but where technology and capital ultimately go depends on real users, funds, and applications.
This is why I think this CLARITY vote is truly worth watching.
Do you think this is just a temporary stall in the regulatory process, or has the U.S. crypto narrative really started to shift? #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC｜Shorted three times today, the core logic is actually just one
Today's market, the bearish rhythm is still quite clear.
Morning rebound gave a position to short.
In the afternoon, continued rebound, still short.
In the evening near 77200, short again, target directly seen near 74800.
Three times of thinking in one day, the market indeed gave verification in the end.
But what I think is really worth reviewing is not how much U was earned.
But:
Why dare to short?
From the 4-hour chart, after BTC fell back from around 79570, the highs keep moving lower, and the lows also keep moving lower.
Continuous solid bearish candles pushing down, a typical bearish structure.
Last night the lowest dipped to around 74909, although now it has returned above 75500, this rebound currently looks more like a weak recovery after continuous downward pressure.
The 4-hour bearish structure has not been broken.
Looking at the 1-hour chart.
After the 74909 spike, there was indeed some support, but the following candles are basically small-bodied sideways, and the rebound height is quite limited.
This indicates:
The bearish release is starting to slow down.
But the problem is——
The bulls have not really gained momentum either.
So at this position, I am actually less willing to chase shorts.
My thinking is:
Wait for the rebound, wait for the price to return to the resistance level, then look for shorting opportunities.
Currently focusing on:
$BTC short near 75800–76100
First target: 75200
Second target: 74400
If the rebound directly holds and breaks through the key resistance, then the bearish logic needs to be reassessed.
ETH is similar:
$ETH short near 2420–2435
First target: 2390
Second target: 2350
I increasingly feel that the most comfortable way to short is not chasing after a drop.
But:
Wait for the market to rebound and bring the price back, then take the short position back.
Direction is only the first step.
Position + stop loss + execution determine whether you can finally turn the market into your profit.
How much did you guys make from this wave today?
+135.28%
Snapshot at Sep 16, 2026, 08:50