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📊 $OKB Quick Overview of Liquidation Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $153.74 · 4 hours: $158.06 · 12 hours: $158.06 · 24 hours: $37,600 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $0 $153.74 0% 4h $0 $158.06 0% 12h $0 $158.06 0% 24h $0 $37,600 0% Duokong interpretation Short liquidations account for 100% of the cycles, while long liquidations account for zero, indicating an extreme unilateral short squeeze upward trend. In the first 12 hours, liquidation was extremely small (about $154~$158), with mild short squeezes initiating; 24-hour liquidation surged to $37,600, with short squeeze conditions exploding in 12-24 hours. Ultimate winner: Bulls—Bearish and late trading face concentrated and devastating liquidation. Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 0.41% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 0.42% of 24 hours · 12 hours accounts for 0.42% of 24 hours Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 0.42%, while the total 24-hour volume is about 238 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that the short squeeze market exploded in the latter half. Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with concentrated liquidations on short positions at the close, but after extreme gains, caution is needed regarding the risk of sharp corrections. A one-sentence explanation $OKB 24-hour short liquidation at $37,600, accounting for 100%, followed by explosive upgrades in the following 12 hours, with bulls winning decisively. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress $BTC futures demand is increasing further. The positive value of futures demand indicates that real demand is emerging. However, spot demand remains negative. Total demand is negative because the negative value of spot demand is larger. A real rally must be accompanied by real demand. Currently, real demand is occurring in the futures market but futures market is still negative demand. A real rally will begin when real demand emerges in the spot market.Is this really the true "Altcoin Season," or just another emotional pump "noise"?👀 On the surface, the green boards turning red and localized surges have sharply heated up the market's FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment. However, the true hallmark of altcoin season is **a broad market rally with liquidity spreading comprehensively**. What we are experiencing now is merely a **brutal rotation** of existing funds among a very limited number of tokens, rather than an overall expansion of incremental capital. Main funds are highly concentrated in a few top assets, while the vast majority of tokens cannot sustain continuous buying support. ### 📊 Liquidity camp division and chip structure * **Strong capital absorption zone (stock focus)**: $BTC, $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP * **Momentum maintenance zone (localized heat)**: $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS * **Momentum decline/stagnation zone (lack of buying)**: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA ### 🏛️ Core asset anchors and value reassessment | Asset | Market Role and Positioning | Latest Status / Reference Benchmark | |---|---|---| | **$BTC** | **King of Liquidity 👑** | Currently at **$64,530** (up 0.92% intraday), total crypto market cap remains at **$2.18 trillion**, still the absolute anchor of the market. | | **$ETH** | **Institutional Application Playground** | Currently near **$1,880**, increasing staking locks continue to reduce spot selling pressure. | | **$SOL** | **High Beta Elastic Bet** | Ecosystem activity remains high, still the primary battlefield for seeking excess returns beyond the broader market. | | **$TAO / $WLD** | **AI Narrative Dual Leaders** | Deeply tied to OpenAI and the latest dynamics in the global semiconductor supply chain. | | **$HYPE** | **Risk Appetite Barometer** | Core indicator measuring the flow of high-leverage and high-risk appetite capital. | | **$DOGE / $ZEC** | **Retail Sentiment and Privacy Battle** | Reflects the fluctuations of retail risk appetite and privacy avoidance sentiment like a mirror. | ### 📰 Macro drivers and news catalysts 1. **Regulatory bill delay (#CLARITYActStalled):** The U.S. Congress's "CLARITY Act" (H.R. 3633) on crypto market structure has been postponed in the Senate agenda until after the August recess due to conflicts of interest and strict ethics review clauses. This policy uncertainty makes large compliant institutions more cautious about fully deploying altcoins. 2. **Temporary easing of geopolitical tensions (#USIranStrikePause):** The U.S. has paused strikes on specific Middle East facilities with no new military escalations, easing macro risk-off sentiment. The oil price decline provides breathing room for the crypto market. > **The harsh truth:** True altcoin season only arrives when liquidity spreads fully and market participation explodes synchronously across all sectors, not when just 5 tokens dominate the headlines. > Until then: **Strictly control risk, follow capital flows, and decisively reject FOMO chasing.** 📈 #EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause 四年没这么安静过了，兄弟们。2017年进场的那些远古巨鲸，终于不砸盘了。不是不砸，是特么砸不动了，该跑的早跑了。刚刚看到数据，休眠的$BTC活动量跌到了2022年三季度以来的最低点。什么概念？2022年那会儿刚从69000崩下来，大家一起装死。现在又来了。说实话，这事儿比任何技术指标都真实。你们想啊，去年底$BTC冲到十几万的时候，OG们疯狂出货，钱包里躺了七八年的币全活了。那波利润兑现完，现在手里要么没货，要么剩的都是零成本仓位。零成本的$BTC，人家急什么？不急着卖。这就是市场的默契。大资金不动，小资金乱窜。山寨季玩得欢，主流币反而稳得一批。我翻了翻链上数据，最近一个月移动的老币少得可怜。上一次这么安静，后面发生了什么？横盘四个月，然后一根大阳线捅破天。别误会，我不是说这次也一样。但有一点很清楚：抛压真的在衰竭。前几个月$BTC跌下来的时候，我说别慌，现在我还是这句话。大饼要真崩，OG们不会这么淡定的。他们最敏感，跑得比谁都快。现在集体装死，说明什么？说明真正的恐慌，还没来。做空的兄弟们自己掂量，你面前是全世界最惜售的一群Holder。他们不卖，你去哪借币砸？当然，牛市不会一天就来 Well-known trader Kla tweeted that Bitcoin's cycle is accelerating. In the previous cycle, it took only 476 days to go from bottom to record high, much faster than the previous two rounds. He expects this round to break the previous high ahead of the next halving. To be honest, the trend of shortening cycles is already quite obvious. The reasons behind this are not hard to guess—institutional funds, ETFs, and macro liquidity are flowing in, causing the market to react much faster than before. Combined with social media and leverage tools, the speed of sentiment and price transmission is simply not on the same level. The old stereotype of "every four years a bull and bear" might really need to be changed now. However, acceleration has two sides. On one hand, if you're still waiting for some "standard right-side signal," you might miss out on a significant rally in the blink of an eye; On the other hand, acceleration means a stronger pullback, and the probability of getting stuck after chasing highs rises sharply. So instead of getting caught up in left and right sides, it's better to manage your positions well, build positions in batches, set stop-losses, and don't let emotions run wild. As for his mention of "new highs before the halving," I think it's quite likely, but that doesn't mean a big pit won't be hit first. In short, focusing on macro data and capital flows is far more reliable than stubbornly stubbornly obsessing over historical patterns. 😂 📊 $XAUT Quick Overview of Liquidation Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $194.64 · 4 hours: $194.64 · 12 hours: $5,107.83 · 24 hours: $36,000 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $0 $194.64 0% 4h $0 $194.64 0% 12h $60.82 $5,047.01 1.2% 24h $30,800 $5,176.69 85.6% Duokong interpretation In the first 12 hours, short liquidation crushed long positions (short positions accounted for 98.8%~100%), and prices continued to rise; Within 24 hours, long positions were liquidated at $30,800, strongly overtaking (accounting for 85.6%), with a sharp reversal occurring within 12-24 hours, turning into a one-sided downtrend. Ultimate winner: Bears—showing a pattern of "short squeeze upward→ surge and pullback, extreme long selling." Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 0.54% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 0.54% of 24 hours · 12 hours account for 14.2% of 24 hours Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 14.2%, while the 24-hour total is 7.05 times the 12-hour volume, indicating a strong burst in the 12-24 hours (about $30,900 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 85.8% of the day). Currently, the market is in a bear-led sustained sharp decline, and in the short term, attention should be paid to technical recovery signals after oversold conditions. A one-sentence explanation $XAUT 24-hour long liquidation at $30,800, accounting for 85.6% of the total, with an early short squeeze followed by extreme bullish selling at the close, with bears winning decisively. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress SK Hynix SK Hynix's stock price has fluctuated sharply, but the AI server has not been equipped with a single HBM block as a result. SK Hynix is sending samples of 12-layer HBM4E to major customers and collaborating with NVIDIA on next-generation AI memory, expanding its growth strategy from HBM to AI DRAM, NAND, and enterprise-grade SSDs. AI computing power development remains a long-term tailwind, but the market is beginning to worry: whether current storage prices and profit margins are close to cycle highs, and whether price competition will resume after Samsung and Micron's expansions. US ADRs have recently fluctuated sharply around $156, showing a clear premium over Korean common stocks, indicating investors are not only betting on companies but also paying for scarcity. Technically, focus on support at $150 to $153; if it falls below it, target $145; The main resistance above is $164 to $170. SK Hynix's long-term logic hasn't disappeared, but the most dangerous short-term thing may be "good news everyone knows." Do you think this is a golden pit for AI memory, or a reminder before the storage cycle shifts? $SKHY #SK海力士 #HBM #AI The early rally of $ORDI truly ignited the first wave of BRC20 inscription booms, and during that rally, market liquidity was basically dominated by domestic players. The scale is no longer what it used to be. Today, ORDI is no longer just a target for Chinese players; global Bitcoin ecosystem participants are closely watching its rise and fall. Especially now, with Rune $DOG continuing to weaken and narratives lacking, overseas funds will further solidify ORDI's position as the leading Bitcoin native asset. But don't expect the market to start immediately; ORDI will continue to fluctuate and shake out, and another half year of grinding is a reasonable scenario. Even if a major bull market has not yet arrived, local hotspots within the sector will continue to emerge: emerging protocols and underlying platforms such as Alkanes, Subfrost, Tap-Nat, Radfi, and Bound will continue to generate phased opportunities. The narrative of the track keeps iterating, with hot topics alternating between old and new, but ORDI, as the emotional anchor of the Bitcoin ecosystem, holds an unshakable position in the short term.Is the P/E ratio of Changxin Storage's IPO as high as 300? Is it still playable? ┈➤ Static P/E ratio for 2025 ◆ #ChangxinStorage opens tomorrow, issue price 8.66, ◆ New shares 668,808.8608 million (accounting for 10% of total shares), ◆ Net profit attributable to the parent company at the end of 2015 was 1,874,859,400 yuan. ◆ According to A-share IPO standards, calculate the static P/E ratio for 2025: PE = 8.66 * 668,808.8608 * 10 / 187,485.94 = 308.92 But this is static data at the end of 2025; the market may and should calculate and value based on dynamic data. ┈➤ Rolling P/E ratio from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026 ◆ Net profit attributable to the parent company from 25Q2 to 26Q1 = Full year 2025 + Q1 2026 - Q1 2025 = 187,485.94 + 2,476,203.15 - (-155,902.79) = 2,819,591.88 ◆ Calculate the rolling P/E ratio based on IPO price PE-TTM【25Q2~26Q1】 = 8.66 * 668,808.8608 * 10 / 2,819,591.88 = 20.54 ┈➤ Rolling P/E ratio from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 (conservative estimate) Net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2026 is between 5,000,000 and 5,700,000; applying the principle of prudence, take the lower limit. ◆ Net profit attributable to the parent company from 25Q3 to 26Q2 = Full year 2025 + first half of 2026 - first half of 2025 = 187,485.94 + 5,000,000 - (-233,205.82) = 5,420,691.76 ◆ Calculate the rolling P/E ratio based on IPO price PE-TTM【25Q3~26Q2】 = 8.66 * 668,808.8608 * 10 / 5,420,691.76 = 10.68 ┈➤ Final notes Cambricon's current P/E is 285, highest 371, Hygon Information's current P/E is 267, highest 315, First, some friends compare Changxin Storage with Hynix, but they are actually not comparable. Because there are differences between markets, Hynix as the leading storage company has a P/E lower than Micron $MU and even SanDisk $SNDK. This is due to differences in environment and sentiment between the Korean and US stock markets. Therefore, Changxin Storage should not be compared with Hynix. Instead, it can be referenced against AI stocks in the A-share market, Cambricon's current P/E is 285, highest 371, Hygon Information's current P/E is 267, highest 315. Second, calculating Changxin Storage's P/E based on 2025 year-end profits yields 308.9. However, the market may value it based on updated data. Based on 25Q2~26Q1, the rolling P/E is 20.54. Based on a conservative estimate for 25Q3~26Q2, the rolling P/E is 10.68. So theoretically, Changxin Storage still has some room to rise after opening. Third, the overall trend of the storage sector is currently uncertain whether it has bottomed out. Fourth, Changxin Storage's main product is DRAM, which may have weaker rigid demand from AI compared to HBM. Fifth, Changxin Storage was still in a loss state in the first half of 2025, with a sharp profit surge in 2026; whether this rapid growth can be sustained requires time to prove. I haven't played big A-shares, so I don't have much say, but theoretically Changxin Storage should be fine up to 17 (PE-TTM【25Q3~26Q2】about 20). Optimistically, it might reach around 40 (PE-TTM【25Q3~26Q2】about 50). Extremely optimistically, it might exceed 70 or even reach 80 (PE-TTM【25Q3~26Q2】close to 100). The large valuation difference is caused by the huge profit gap between 2025 and 2026 for Changxin Storage; whether this growth trend is a short-term burst or will continue long-term is still uncertain.Guys, YGG rose 4.21% today, currently priced at $0.01854. Behind this bullish candlestick, the core catalyst comes from expectations of a strategic restructuring of the project: on July 7, YGG officially announced the closure of its game publishing division YGG Play, laying off 35 employees, and games like LOL Land will officially delaunch on July 31. This move is not a project crisis, but rather a shift in focus to AI game behavior data services, with player behavior datasets usable for AI model training, and the market speculating on its long-term potential to enter the AI data track. Technical Aspects: Support at 0.0185-0.0187; resistance above is seen at 0.0192/0.0200/0.0210, with the previous high at 0.0212 forming strong resistance; Below is a key defensive position at 0.0175. Core risk: Trading volume heavily depends on the futures market, with contract size significantly higher than spot trading. Leverage funds dominate the market, making the structure fragile and causing amplified volatility. With only a few days left until YGG Play officially shuts down on July 31, the market is weighing the narrative expectations of transformation, and caution is needed to watch out for selling pressure that may materialize after the event materializes. Key point: Currently, the AI data business is still in the strategic planning stage and has no revenue from implementation; At the same time, YGG tokens do not have the capability to capture business revenue. These are event-driven, high-volatility short-term targets, with the bottom line of the game being fast in and out. Do not mistake short-term thematic rebounds for trend reversals; strictly manage positions and risks. Personal market views 今天看到 BitMex 和 BitMart 这两家交易所相继停止运营，有点唏嘘。这一年多多慢熊的过程中，已经有很多web3 的项目在相继消失或者换皮，市场上的热钱也在逐渐流向 ai 领域对于这两家交易所在如此巧合的情况下相继在同一周关停，我觉得又是个原因： 1. 流动性在向头部交易所集中，大多韭菜和巨鲸通常都会选择盘口最深，滑点最低，对手方最多的平台。流动性越差，用户就会越少，用户越少，用户就会进一步下降，然后就会左脚踩右脚，进入死亡螺旋。 2. Hyperliquid这种链上交易平台正在蚕食 cex的市场份额。交易者在这些 dex 上可以自行托管资产，而且平台规则和储备也更透明。这让没有现货生态，或者机构托管业务的老牌合约交易所更加难以生存 3. 合规成本上升，以前那种开曼注册，服务全球的方法行不通了，欧洲和北美以及新加坡，香港的 web3 生态都开始走向规范化，在这个过程中就免不了出现像 bitmex 这种跟不上的因为合规问题不得不停止在欧洲地区的业务 4. 平台币开始反噬，这是另一个死亡螺旋：交易所经营困难时，平台币价格下跌，然后下跌导致用户减持，抵押品和财务储备编制，市场对平台的偿付能力产生怀疑，然后再次左脚踩右脚，直到跌入谷底不知道这两家交易所的停止到了熊市的底部还是刚刚开始。但不管怎样，还是希望行业越来越好，大家都能有钱赚，有肉吃 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切今天看到 RootData 发布的最新统计，2026 年年内已经有 99 个加密项目宣布停止运营、破产或网站彻底瘫痪。名单里不乏大家耳熟能详的名字：从老牌合约衍生品平台 BitMEX、BitMart、AscendEX，到极好用的链上看板和钱包工具 Zapper、Parsec、Leap、Ctrl，再到 DeFi 协议 Stream Finance 和 Altura。看完这 99 个死亡名单，说实话，我不仅没感到悲观，反倒觉得这是行业高利率环境下极具血腥、但也极为健康的“去水分大清洗”。仔细拆解这些死亡项目的特征，背后只有一条极其残酷的铁律：靠讲故事和代币印钞补贴存活的时代过去了。这 99 个项目的死亡，主要踩中了三大致死病因：第一个死因，是纯前端工具协议的“价值捕获黑洞”。像 Zapper、Parsec、Leap 这种看板和钱包，产品体验确实不错，但纯前端缺乏原生代币的利益捕获机制，没有商业闭环。在熊市和存量博弈期，高昂的节点与服务器运维成本直接把团队现金流给耗干了。第二个死因，是通胀庞氏挖矿的彻底失效。Stream Finance 这类协议，过去靠印自己的治理代币给高 APY 吸引流动性。但在 10 年美债 4.7% 的无风险利率压制下，聪明资金宁可拿着美债，也不愿意去陪你玩空气代币通胀的游戏。补贴一停，池子立刻沦为死城。第三个死因，是二线 CEX 的流动性流失与合规反噬。随着 Solana 链上 DEX 交易量超越传统合规 CEX，加上 BitMEX 诉讼等监管合规成本飙升，中小型 CEX 的生存空间被链上 DEX 和头部合规巨头双向挤压，流动性枯竭后只能破产离场。我的结论：这 99 个项目的集体死亡，是市场在帮你做清洗删减。未来能活下来的，要么是底层具备极强网络效应的头部公链/DEX，要么是能源源不断创造真实法币收入（Real Revenue）和协议分红的 Real Yield 蓝筹。这 99 个死亡项目里，有你曾经用过或踩过坑的吗？欢迎在评论区聊聊。The essence of TSLA's sharp drop is: the market is not denying Tesla's future, but is demanding that these future businesses be reflected more quickly and clearly in the financial statements. The necessary conditions for Tesla's rise are: smooth rollout of FSD v15, scaled operation of Robotaxi, and production ramp-up of Optimus—at least two of these must achieve substantial breakthroughs. The sufficient condition for the rise is: while the above breakthroughs occur, automotive gross margin stabilizes and free cash flow improves, convincing the market that the "burn phase" is about to end. Currently, Tesla is in the painful transition from the "car sales story" to the "AI story." The market is willing to wait, but not indefinitely. Every upcoming quarterly report will be a major test of whether the "story can become reality." #财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ $TSLA STRC's paper losses blew up a group yesterday. Treasury's book numbers forcibly pushed preferred stock discounts into an industry-wide credit test. To be honest, the moment I saw the Strive holdings exposed, I felt this wasn't that simple. It's not just one company's pressure, but everyone's problem. When $BTC broke below support, those telling stories about paper profits suddenly realized their preferred shares had become hot potatoes. The discount rate was much faster than expected, and liquidity drained the entire Bitcoin market The treasury valuation model is shaking. Sisters, stay calm. It's not that I'm trying to create anxiety, but this contagion is really fast. A book loss from a treasury can make an entire institution reprice the risk of Bitcoin holdings. The balance sheet management that was hyped up last year has become a tightening curse this year. The key isn't whether you have $MSTR, but treasuries with similar patterns Everyone is being re-evaluated. STRC is just the first domino to fall. Behind it are a bunch of people using the same logic to snowball. I'm not chasing highs or in a hurry to sell. Let's first see how the US stock market reacts tonight. If no one even accepts the discount on preferred stocks, that would be the real big problem. Is there still hope for treasury? Which side are you on on this topic? #芯片股反弹, short positions in U.S. stocks hit a record high #加密行情回暖, Bitcoin rose #美股全线走高, and crypto stocks led the gains This time, there was no new name that made me willing to raise my attention; instead, two old observation items gave completely different signals. HBULL is currently about $0.00157, with a market capitalization of about $1.5 million, liquidity of about $125,000, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $872,000. Real transactions still exist, but RugCheck has a new tip that one address holds 25.83%. The project team stated that the large tokens are in the staking vault, but I have not yet been able to independently confirm the correspondence between this address and the publicly available staking procedure. About 97.97% of the main pool liquidity certificates are locked, and the rights for additional issuance and freezing have been revoked; Before the use of large addresses is proven, I just treat it as a routine observation. Contract: 7V6Sk63y8Rr1MvcN5mYNp61wgFhy4EeQg5gUASk9pump https://dexscreener.com/solana/edx18gjcdijqslaja2pp5c2vma3btrrx4utxkejufrtq BUB is earlier and more dangerous. Within about four hours, the number of holding addresses increased from 1,027 to 2,292, with about 3,537 independent traders and approximately $1.2 million in transactions; However, during the same period, the price pulled back about 30%, liquidity dropped to around $27,000–$29,000, and the turnover was more than forty times the liquidity. Tokens are temporarily dispersed, the main pool is nearly 100% locked, the proportion of bots is unknown, and the project has no verifiable official relationship with Lil BUB's original IP. Contract: 4FaSuBUp15t9Qiar9MdpaspkZJU5RK6A3QLnybNCpump https://dexscreener.com/solana/J1GuZspgz3kxJqgngTGsR5QyJioSLAoZnApFd2yvtVsR Next, I will verify three things: whether the HBULL large address can prove it is a bound vault; Whether buyback and reward transactions can be aligned consecutively; After BUB's hype cools down, can its holdings and liquidity remain? Large addresses concentrating into the pool, HBULL main pool lock-up continues to drop significantly, or BUB liquidity continues to rapidly drain away, all of which make me stop watching. High-risk research records, not trade advice.On July 26, $SHIB emerged in an independent super rally without any fundamental improvements, project announcements, or ecosystem updates. The intraday peak surged 36%, with the price hitting $0.0000057, and the market capitalization surged by $1 billion in a single day, pushing the total market cap past $3.4 billion. 1. The Real Core of This Round of Rallies — Korean Kimchi Funds Dominate the Market This rally is not a consensus among all online funds but rather concentrated speculation in a single region: South Korea's leading exchange Upbit's $SHIB/KRW trading pair recorded a single-day trading volume of $62 million, accounting for over 10% of global trading volume. Moreover, the Korean session continues to perform at a slight premium over the mainstream US dollar market, which proves that this round of $SHIB's surge was entirely driven unilaterally by Korean retail funds. 2. Severe sector fragmentation, capital tightly clusters $SHIB This round of meme coin rally is not a broad rally but an extreme structural rally: - $DOGE Only rose 6% during the same period - Other dog-type imitation stocks generally rose less than 10% Capital is highly concentrated and solely focused on $SHIB, with very weak follow-up within the sector and no overall sector resonance support. 3. Contract liquidation data clarification: Short closing is not the driving force behind the rally. During this rally, a total of 2,300 users liquidated $SHIB positions across the network, with a total liquidation amount of $6 million. Of this, short positions were liquidated about $5 million. Key Core Conclusion: Short liquidation is merely a passive result after price increases, and is by no means the driving force behind this rally 📊 $BCH Quick Overview of Liquidation Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $96.06 · 4 hours: $293.63 · 12 hours: $48,400 · 24 hours: $58,300 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $96.06 $0 100% 4h $189.26 $104.37 64.5% 12h $32,000 $16,300 66.1% 24h $36,200 $22,100 62.1% Duokong interpretation Forced liquidations dominated all periods (24-hour bulls accounted for 62.1%), indicating a sustained one-sided downward trend. 1-12 hour long positions account for 64.5%~100%, with almost no resistance on the bears; Although there was a 24-hour short liquidation at $22,100 (accounting for 37.9%), bulls still dominated. Ultimate winner: Bears—The price shows a continuous one-sided downward trend, while the bulls have cleared out consecutive stop-losses. Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 0.16% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 0.50% of 24 hours · 12 hours accounts for 83.0% of 24 hours Extreme liquidations are concentrated in the 12-hour cycle (over 80%), indicating that the main downward wave has erupted within 12 hours; The total 24-hour volume is 1.20 times that of the 12-hour period, and in the following 12 hours, the bullish continues, but its intensity weakens. Currently, the market is at the end of a bear-led sustained decline, with the bullish forces basically cleared out. In the short term, we need to wait for signals of shrinking volume. A one-sentence explanation $BCH 24-hour long liquidations at $36,200, accounting for 62% of total volume; 12-hour concentrated breakout mainly triggered a decline, with bears winning decisively. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress 欧洲加密圈正在经历一场无声的洗牌！先别盯着K线了，看个更深远的变化。欧洲那边，MiCA法规全面落地，英国FCA也快把框架敲定了。但关键已经不是拿牌照的事。真正的门槛是合规成本，这直接决定了谁能活下去。直接说我的判断：加密原生小企业的生存空间在被挤压，而传统银行，反而借着现成的合规底子，准备进场收割了。英国更狠，不搞独立加密制度，直接把加密活动纳入传统金融监管，标准跟投行对齐。这意味着，以前那种野蛮生长的路子，在欧洲基本走不通了。整理几个普通人能拿走的点： 1. 如果你是从业者，别只满足于拿到牌照，赶紧评估长期合规成本，这比牌照本身更要命。 2. 对于想突围的加密公司，主动去找有合规基础设施的传统金融机构谈合作，甚至接受并购，可能是条明路。 3. 作为投资者，可以留意那些已经具备合规优势，或者能低成本融入传统金融体系的加密资产和相关标的。当然，风险边界得说清楚。这波并购潮的规模和速度，还得看市场行情和监管执行的具体力度。而且监管太严也可能把创新逼到别的区域去，对欧洲自己反而是种长期损失。本文只是趋势分析，不构成任何投资建议，市场变化永远比预想快。免责声明：仅为信息整理与逻辑复盘，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，请自行研究。 $BTC$ETH$BNB#欧洲监管 $PEPE 突破 0.00000304 主要是资金由 SHIB 溢出与交易所提币存量下降共同推动，但 RSI6 达到 82.32 显示短线流动性已被过度透支，追高性价比极低。交易所存量下降叠加 Upbit 交易量激增构成了核心买盘。相比下半年路线图的远期叙事，SHIB 板块资金溢出对现货流动性的直接拉动作用更加显性。如果现货买盘持续强劲并站稳 0.00000304 至 0.00000305 阻力带，短线流动性推升目标将指向 0.0000032 至 0.0000033 区间。该剧本生效的变量在于回踩 0.00000300 不破且 Upbit 溢出资金未见衰减。一旦 0.00000305 阻力位引发密集抛压，获利盘兑现会将价格压回 0.0000027 至 0.0000028 的第一支撑带。若进一步下破 0.0000025 至 0.0000024 防线，从 7 月 10 日低点 0.0000022 积累的 35% 涨幅筹码将引发连锁清算。当价格顺畅突破 0.0000033 且 RSI6 回落至 70 以下的健康区间时，短线超买调整的推演宣告失效。未来 24 小时重点观察 Upbit 的成交量变化以及 0.0000027 支撑位的资金承接表现。 #美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 Changxin Technology will open tomorrow for its IPO, and overseas AI giants face a "major test" in their earnings reports. Next week is the last trading week of the month, and the market is about to experience two major key market moments: First, Changxin Technology, the top IPO of the year in the A-share market, officially debuted on the STAR Market, directly reshaping the domestic memory sector landscape; Second, the global storage giants + US AI weights collectively disclosed their earnings reports, resonating in both domestic and international markets, directly finalizing the mid-term trends of the chip and technology sectors. Insider funds have mostly been watching and gathering strength this week, with the market accelerating completely starting tomorrow. ▶️ Changxin's IPO revenue gradient Changxin issue price at 8.66 yuan per share, with a fixed 500 shares per STAR Market contract, a participation capital of 4,330 yuan, and an initial market capitalization of 579.2 billion yuan. Based on the multi-dimensional valuation model of brokers, below are the range aligned with institutional expectations, with different price increases corresponding to stock prices, total market capitalization, and single contract net profit gradients, and ranges aligned with institutional expectations: ✅ 100% increase | Market value 1.16 trillion yuan | Stock price 17.32 yuan | Net profit of 4,330 yuan per single sign ✅ Up 200% | Market value 1.74 trillion | Stock price 25.98 yuan | Net profit of 8,660 yuan per single contract ✅ Up 300% | Market cap 2.32 trillion yuan | Stock price 34.64 yuan | Net profit of 12,990 yuan per sign ✅ 400% increase | Market value 2.90 trillion yuan | Stock price 43.30 yuan | Net profit of 17,320 yuan per sign ✅ Up 500% | Market value 3.48 trillion yuan | Stock price 51.96 yuan | Net profit of 21,650 yuan per sign ✅ Up 600% | Market value 4.05 trillion yuan | Stock price 60.62 yuan | Net profit of 25,980 yuan per sign Objectively speaking, considering conservative to ultra-optimistic valuations, the reasonable first-day fluctuation range is 70%-600%, corresponding to winning profits of 3,000-26,000 yuan. A rise of over 600% is purely market sentiment speculation, lacking fundamental support, and chasing the price with minimal cost-effectiveness. ▶️ The core logic of Changxin's valuation There is significant market disagreement over Changxin's valuation, but the core logic is actually very clear. The initial market value of 579.2 billion yuan comes from genuine institutional inquiry pricing, providing a solid safety cushion rather than a sentiment-driven valuation. The company's performance has surged this year, with a full annual profit forecast of 100 billion yuan. Compared to overseas storage giants, its current forward valuation is within a reasonable range. At the same time, as a rare domestic DRAM mass production target in A-shares, benefiting from expectations of domestic substitution and technological breakthroughs, it carries a valuation premium, with a reasonable valuation center of 1.5-2 trillion yuan. A rational view of the market is needed. The storage industry has strong cyclical attributes, and current high performance relies on short-term AI dividends. Coupled with the company's ongoing technological gap with leading overseas firms, the high valuation driven by short-term sentiment creates pressure to absorb the gains, so blind chasing is not recommended. ▶️ A-share market forecast for tomorrow Changxin's listing will directly affect the capital flow of the A-share technology sector. Tomorrow, the market will show obvious structural differentiation, with core changes concentrated in three points: 1. Capital Divergence: Large transactions in the secondary market will divert existing funds from tech tracks like AI hardware and semiconductor design. Without market growth, small tech stocks are likely to come under pressure. 2. Stock switching: With the establishment of leading storage manufacturing companies, funds will shift from marginal stocks like modules and controllers to Changxin's core leaders, clearly showing a trend of de-weak while keeping strong. 3. Industry Chain Benefits: The company's funds raised for capacity expansion and equipment procurement directly benefit upstream semiconductor equipment and materials supporting sectors, providing sustained catalysts. ▶️ Overseas Storage Financial Report Outlook Next Wednesday, major overseas storage leaders will release their earnings reports in concentrated numbers, which will be key to verifying the current AI storage boom and will also influence the mid-term market outlook for A-share semiconductors: ▪️ SK Hynix (7.29): Predicts the industry shortage will continue into 2030, focusing on chip price increases as they take effect ▪️ Samsung (7.30): Early positive factors have been overwhelmed, focusing on HBM shipments and order guidance ▪️ Kioxia (7.31): Market value fluctuates sharply; earnings reports will verify the authenticity of industry prosperity Institutions generally believe that the HBM capacity shortage will persist until 2027, and as long as the current financial data remains solid, the mid-term rally in the storage sector is likely to continue. ▶️ Reference for U.S. AI earnings sentiment Next week, US AI tech giants will concentrate on earnings disclosures, and the market will show clear style divergence this year: heavy-asset semiconductors are strengthening, while tech companies that have made significant investments in AI are showing weakness, which can serve as a reference for the peripheral sentiment of the A-share tech sector. The core suppression is that the market does not recognize the sustained capital investment of AI companies without returns; previously, Alphabet plunged due to excessive spending. This sentiment may slightly transmit to A-shares but will not change the independent market trend of domestic storage. Overall, tomorrow it is advisable to focus on seizing the structural opportunity presented by Changxin's IPO and cautiously participate in secondary market chasing gains. Next week, focus on tracking the performance of overseas storage earnings reports, avoid short-term sentiment fluctuations caused by US AI earnings, and pay attention to trading rhythm.Uni Short-term: All the good news has been exhausted, so early profit-taking is normal. Voting on fee proposals (v4 protocol fees + Robinhood Chain scaling) ended on July 25, with extremely high support and entering queued mode, about to be executed. All new protocol fees will continue to flow into the existing UNI burn mechanism (TokenJar). Short-term traders treat "proposal approval" as event-driven and realize profits early, which is completely reasonable. But from a long-term perspective, the significance of this matter goes far beyond "burning a bit more coins." 1. Significant increase in buyback/burn efforts After the proposal passes, protocol fee coverage will be greatly expanded (v4 selected pools + Robinhood Chain v2/v3), and the burn pace will accelerate noticeably. Hayden himself has clearly stated that, based on current transaction volume, especially Robinhood Chain, the impact on UNI burn will be "substantial." You can wait about a month for actual on-chain data to come out, then conduct a horizontal backtest against $HYPE's annual buyback ratio—the numbers will be more convincing. 2. Uniswap's innovation genes remain leading v1/v2: Simplifying and popularizing AMM as the underlying standard for DeFi. v3: Pioneered Hyundai CLAMM, allowing each LP to customize its price range within the same pool. v4: Pioneered and centered on the Pool Lifecycle Hook, standardizing permissionless AMM extension architecture. As the pioneer of DEXs, almost every major upgrade has redefined the industry's gameplay. 3. Default liquidity entry in reality Currently, for most EVM chain launch platforms, Uniswap remains the preferred pool. v4's Hook gives launch platforms huge customization space (custom fees, dynamic logic, auction mechanisms, etc.). Of course, alpha launches on BSC are still dominated by Pancake, but Uniswap's position as a first-mover and standard remains solid in the overall landscape. 4. Scalability is far from the ceiling New mechanisms like CCA auction issuance have already proven strong product expansion potential, though currently they are relatively restrained. This "capable but not overly aggressive" pace is actually more beneficial for long-term ecosystem health. Previously, $UNI was criticized for being "unempowered," but now, through UNIfication + protocol fees, continuous burning, the value capture path has become clearer. First-mover advantage + continuous product innovation + almost leading the evolution of on-chain DEXs allows for bolder possibilities—the true on-chain Nasdaq is not just empty talk. Proposal Details: vote.uniswapfoundation.org/proposals What do you all think? #新手必看: Everything you need is here #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Key Rules for Trading New OKX Listings Avoid Buying the First 15-Minute Candle: Initial spikes are often driven by pre-listing token holders taking profit. Wait for Base Formation: Let the price establish a 1H/4H support level before opening positions. Use Strict Stop-Losses: Liquidity depth can be thin in early days, leading to wider slippage during market-wide moves. #EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #KoreaAIChipPush 📅 2026-07-26（周日）夜间盘面与宏观复盘 💾 一、长鑫存储：明日登陆科创板长鑫存储（CXMT）将于周一上市，是亚洲今年最受关注的 IPO 之一。目前 HYPE 已上线 CXMT Pre-IPO 永续，存储板块的市场热度也在持续上升。这次上市影响的不只是 A 股半导体板块，还可能带动全球存储产业链重新估值，重点关注： Micron（MU） SK Hynix Samsung SanDisk 如果长鑫存储上市首日表现明显超出预期，资金可能进一步向存储芯片及相关产业链扩散，这也是本周最值得观察的事件之一。 📈 二、美股与科技股：进入财报超级周本周科技股财报将密集公布，重点包括： Microsoft Meta Apple Amazon 市场现在已经不再讨论“AI 有没有未来”，而是开始追问一个更现实的问题：巨额 AI 资本开支什么时候能够转化为收入和利润？ Microsoft 和 Amazon 需要证明云业务与 AI 服务的变现能力；Meta 需要证明 AI 对广告效率的提升；Apple 则要回答 AI 能否真正推动新一轮硬件换机周期。本周财报结果，很可能决定科技股和 AI 主线下一阶段的方向。 🪙 三、BTC与ETH：大事件前的等待模式 BTC、ETH 今日波动不大，属于典型的大事件前资金观望行情。短期主要情景仍然取决于美联储：如果美联储释放偏鸽信号，流动性预期改善，BTC、ETH 有望继续走强；如果表态偏鹰，美债收益率和美元重新走高，则需要防范风险资产同步回调。当前位置不适合因为周末的小幅波动频繁改变方向，更重要的是等待本周宏观事件给出确认。 🔥 四、HYPE：重点仍然是生态扩张 HYPE 今天的重点并不是价格，而是生态正在持续完善，并开始覆盖越来越多的传统资产和 Pre-IPO 标的。这也是我长期关注 HYPE 的核心原因之一。如果未来链上 DEX 能够继续争夺中心化交易所的市场份额，HYPE 依旧属于值得持续跟踪的第一梯队项目。 🟡 五、黄金与原油：暂时缺少新催化黄金周末市场休市，盘面没有明显变化。短期继续关注美元和美债收益率走势，本周美联储表态将是黄金最重要的方向变量。原油原油继续围绕地缘政治和供应风险交易，目前暂时没有出现特别新的催化，等待周一开盘后的资金反馈。 🗓️ 六、本周关键事件日历 ⭐ 周一长鑫存储上市 ⭐ 周三美联储利率决议 Microsoft 财报 Meta 财报 ⭐ 周四 Apple 财报 Amazon 财报美国 GDP 数据 ⭐ 周五美国 PCE 数据中国 PMI 数据 💡 今日交易思考真正的大行情，往往并不是从新闻公布的那一刻才开始。在重要事件落地之前，资金通常已经提前调整仓位、布局方向。很多人还在关注 BTC 今天涨了还是跌了 0.5%，但真正决定未来一个月市场走势的，可能是：美联储的政策态度科技巨头的财报表现 AI CapEx 的实际回报长鑫存储上市后的市场反馈所以，与其纠结周末有没有波动，我更愿意把注意力放在一个问题上：下一阶段，哪些资产会成为资金最愿意持续买入的方向？市场已经进入超级周，耐心等待关键事件落地，再根据结果调整方向。以上仅为个人市场观察，不构成任何投资建议。#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过多数党领袖称 CLARITY 法案休会前难通过，这真的算利空吗？市场看到“休会前难通过”，第一反应往往是监管推进放缓，对加密市场偏利空。但我更关注的是另一个问题：市场交易的是“时间”，还是“方向”？如果只是立法时间表推迟，而不是政策方向发生逆转，那么这更像是预期兑现节奏的变化，而不是逻辑被推翻。资本市场经常会出现一种现象：大家都知道一件利好会来，但真正影响价格的，不是“会不会来”，而是“什么时候来”“市场提前交易了多少”。从交易角度来看，我更愿意把这类消息理解为： * 短线可能影响市场情绪，资金风险偏好有所降温； * 中长期则要继续观察美国监管框架是否仍朝着更加明确的方向推进。很多人喜欢把消息简单分成利好或利空，但市场真正复杂的地方在于，同一条消息，在不同阶段意味着完全不同的结果。如果市场已经提前计价了快速通过，那么延期就是利空；如果市场原本预期就不高，那么延期未必会改变趋势。这也是我一直坚持的交易思路：不要急着判断消息本身，而是判断消息与市场预期之间的偏差。真正推动价格的，往往不是事件，而是预期差。未来我会继续关注立法进展，但更关注资金是否因为监管预期变化而重新配置风险资产，而不是仅凭一条新闻就改变自己的交易逻辑。你认为 CLARITY 法案延期只是时间问题，还是会影响美国加密监管的大方向？欢迎聊聊你的看法。$ETH After watching the market in the evening, I was about to shut down my computer, but then I came across the new continuous announcements from Jensen Huang over the past two days. My first reaction was not to look at Nvidia, but to wonder: will the Korean stock AI industry chain become the market focus tomorrow? Recently, compared to short-term price fluctuations, I have been paying more attention to changes in the industry chain because, often, large capital looks beyond one or two days to the supply and demand pattern over the coming years. What is particularly noteworthy this time is that Jensen Huang not only announced that Nvidia's future cooperation scale with SK Group will exceed $500 billion, but also stated that they will lock in the purchase of SK Hynix's HBM for many consecutive years. Meanwhile, Anthropic has also reached long-term cooperation agreements with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Putting these pieces of news together, I feel the signals released are even more important than many companies' quarterly financial reports. Several leading global AI companies are almost simultaneously integrating the Korean memory industry into their core supply chains, indicating that market competition is no longer just between models but is beginning to extend to underlying hardware and supply chains. My own understanding is that such cooperation may not immediately reflect in stock prices in the short term, but it will indeed impact the long-term expectations of the entire industry chain. Jensen Huang also mentioned that the global semiconductor industry scale could expand to 10 times its current size over the next decade. His core point is very clear: future computing power demand will not only come from humans but also from an increasing number of AI Agents, robots, and other intelligent terminals. If this direction continues to materialize, the real beneficiaries will not be limited to GPUs. Components like HBM, high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, data centers, and power infrastructure may all face long-term supply tightness and sustained demand growth. This is why I have been focusing on the AI industry chain recently, rather than just watching a few model companies. Of course, I also think the current market valuation of AI is already high, and short-term overheating or even valuation bubbles are normal phenomena. But I have always believed that bubbles will eventually be digested by the market, and what truly remains are technology and productivity. When AI in the future not only serves humans but also begins to serve billions of AI Agents and robots, the entire society's production methods, business models, and even industry divisions may undergo significant changes. Therefore, I will not dismiss the entire AI logic because of a few days of short-term fluctuations, nor will I blindly chase highs just because of some positive news. I prefer to continuously monitor industry trends and then decide my position based on valuation and timing. If this round of AI truly becomes an important driving force for the next wave of productivity transformation, then what is really worth seizing is not just a single day's rise but the opportunities brought by long-term industry evolution. Of course, the greater the opportunity, the greater the volatility, so trading still requires good control of rhythm and risk. $SKHY 📊 $LTC Quick Overview of Liquidation Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $1,155.41 · 4 hours: $11,800 · 12 hours: $34,400 · 24 hours: $43,200 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $213.75 $941.66 18.5% 4h $591.75 $11,200 5.0% 12h $1,620.84 $32,800 4.7% 24h $6,525.97 $36,600 15.1% Duokong interpretation Across cycles, short blowouts crushed the bulls (24-hour short positions accounted for 84.9%), indicating a sustained short-squeeze rally. Short positions account for 81.5%~95.3% of the 1-12 hours, with bears continuously being liquidated; The 24-hour bullish counterattack has slightly strengthened, but bears still dominate the market. Ultimate winner: Bulls—prices continue to rise strongly. Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 2.67% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 27.3% of 24 hours · 12 hours accounts for 79.6% of 24 hours Extreme liquidations are concentrated on the 12-hour cycle (nearly 80%), indicating that the main short squeeze rally erupted in concentrated within 12 hours; The total 24-hour volume is 1.26 times that of the 12-hour period, with limited incremental growth in the following 12 hours, signaling the end of the short squeeze. Currently, the market is at the end of the high level of the short squeeze phase, with bears suffering heavy losses, but caution is needed regarding profit-taking pressure. A one-sentence explanation $LTC 24-hour short liquidations at $36,600, accounting for 84.9% of total volume; 12-hour concentrated burst forced the main rally, with bulls winning decisively. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress $ORDI ORDIUSDT Perp 3.826 +7.53% USDT has climbed +7.90%, currently trading at 3.837 USDT. The bullish structure remains intact, with strong buying interest supporting the move. A break above resistance may trigger fresh momentum. Entry: 3.80–3.85 TP: 3.95 | 4.08 | 4.20 SL: 3.68 超短线交易复盘很多人觉得合约赚钱靠预判行情、赌方向，我用实打实的账户成绩单说句实在话：超短线想要活下去，从来不是抓住一波大行情暴富，是赚看得懂的小钱，管住看不懂的大亏。先晒下实盘结果，初始本金1百5出头，一路做到419.73U，整体收益率直接翻倍104.32%。过程不是一路长虹，中途最大回撤接近10%，踩过坑、浮亏过，扛住回调之后再稳步创新高。$BTC $ETH $DOGE Because the weekend volatility is relatively small, I usually only update one article. Now I'll summarize this week and forecast next week's market. This week, I kept watching a rally to surpass the previous high of 72,300, but the big players got worse. Everyone is looking for a fake breakout and won't let you break out. I just tested it and exited, planning to go long to a new high and then make the final mid- to long-term short move. Unexpectedly, I tried to steal a chicken but ended up losing money. Prices are still in a bottom-of-fluctuation zone with no clear breakout signals, as tensions in the Middle East are heating up and oil prices are soaring, making US inflation even more severe and possibly raising expectations for next week's rate hike. If this outlook continues, short-term rallies won't be significant, and without macro conditions, the likelihood of a direct bull run is very low. That's why I keep expecting a second bottom, or even breaking below previous lows The daily chart dropped directly near the pre-test high, and the price slipped away early, showing no sense of honor. The daily chart has fallen three times in a row. Although it is still testing near the middle band, the bulls are still in jeopardy. As I said before, multiple tests of support are not support, but a trap for being broken. If strong buying is entering a certain area, it won't break upward after multiple tests. Continuous tests indicate insufficient buying strength, and this test increases the risk of a breakout A relatively clear recovery in the minor level is not a strong rally, but there are very clear trend reversal signals. The key resistance is near 64,700. If today's rebound fails to hold this level, the price will continue to decline, breaking the key support near 62,200. If it breaks this level, the price will reach resistance at 65,500. However, due to the weekly closing line, I am not optimistic about a breakout to a new high next week. Therefore, I personally lean toward a slight rebound before a decline In summary, the decline came several hundred points earlier than expected, so we need to adjust our thinking in time. Given the current overall situation, expectations for rate hikes have increased significantly, putting tremendous short-term pressure. Therefore, it is unlikely that a very large rebound will occur in the near future. I am optimistic about a small rebound followed by a continued downward trend. Although the bullish position has not been completely destroyed yet, the seven tests of the mid-band have not shown any real upward momentum, indicating insufficient momentum among the bulls. Therefore, the overall focus is on a continuation of bearish momentum after a rebound. Short-term focus on the gains and losses of resistance at 64,700 #EarningReportObserver: Who can truly understand the real answer cards of Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress 我们没有负责人，现在我需要知晓以下问题，我只在Gate官方app进行联系，请管理层落实以下问题，请看清楚字，别用话术敷衍，Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子的钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？哈希在这里： 0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90 当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这是Gate的回答对吗？My boyfriend said this coin was no good, but it ended up rising 10 times Of course, that was in the past But today I want to talk about a bigger rotation logic South Korea's storage giants SK Hynix and Samsung both landed big orders from AI giants SK Hynix ADR premium is as high as 51% Do you know what a 51% premium means? It means overseas funds are willing to pay half more to buy Korean stock mappings This shows how crazy the demand for AI chips has become And then guess what South Korea's pension fund turned to net buying KOSPI for the first time this year Their heavy holdings are in SK Hynix When even pension funds move, it shows this is not speculation It's a real industrial trend Then ChangXin Technology is going public tomorrow Off-market valuation is 2.76 trillion Putting these three things together actually reveals a clear sector rotation logic AI chip demand spreads from the US to South Korea and then to China The entire semiconductor industry chain is benefiting So what does this have to do with crypto? A lot The AI arms race continuously drives up computing power demand Computing power demand drives the valuation logic of AI tokens And South Korean funds have always been an important force in the crypto market South Korea's pension fund starting to buy stocks Shows South Korean funds are shifting from conservative to aggressive Once South Korean retail investors see pension funds buying They will rush in after them Then the overflow funds will flow into the crypto market This path has been verified countless times in the past So my judgment is The capital transmission chain from AI semiconductors → South Korean stock market → crypto market has already started Now position yourself in the AI+Crypto track The harvest period will come when South Korean funds spill over Find projects in the AI sector that are actually working Don't chase pure concepts Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, several directions worth watching #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 The monthly trading volume of RWA perpetuals keeps rising every month. 470 billion monthly trading volume has already surpassed many CEX perpetual volumes. In this cycle, RWA is the most stable track—not like meme coins relying on sentiment, not like AI relying on narrative, RWA is supported by real financial demand. #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 The ETH staking sell pressure alarm is lifted. Previously, a large queue of ETH unstaking caused market worries about stETH issues; now the exit queue is zero, indicating the most panic moment has passed. ETH consolidating here is building a bottom. #三星Galaxy钱包将原生支持稳定币 Samsung's move is huge. Galaxy users can use stablecoins right when they open their phones; USDT and USDC monthly active users may double. For projects building stablecoin application layers, this is the biggest catalyst. $AI $FET #sectorrotation #AIchips #semiconductors Two days cost me three months' salary, and now I just want some peace But after calming down, I looked into it It has been found that this week, the intersection between traditional finance and crypto is increasing Let me start with a piece of data you might not have noticed RWA perpetual monthly trading volume is $470 billion 470 billion!! ！ This is no small number What does that mean? Many second- and third-tier exchanges have perpetual contracts that don't have this volume combined Then guess what RWA is actually the most underrated narrative in this cycle Everyone is chasing memes, AI, and DePin But the real steady growth is actually RWA Traditional financial institutions tokenize bonds, funds, and real estate on-chain Then they trade perpetual contracts on-chain Once this model works, The liquidity of the entire financial market will be moved onto the chain There's one more thing Samsung Galaxy Wallet will natively support stablecoins Hundreds of millions of devices worldwide are directly built-in What does this mean? This means users don't need to download from an exchange or understand what a mnemonic phrase is USDC and USDT can be used directly on your phone This is a qualitative leap for the entire industry's breakout If Samsung succeeds in this move, Apple is very likely to follow suit At that point, the threshold for using encryption will shift from 'a bit difficult' to 'as simple as Alipay' So my judgment is RWA and wallet integration into stablecoins This is the true fundamental narrative of this cycle Price fluctuations are short-term events Infrastructure is underway 本金三万，最高浮盈二十万，现在又回到五万这种过山车坐得我腿都软了回头看这一周其实挺有意思的 BTC从这周初的63900到现在的64356 折腾了五天波动才0.7% 但中间的上下插针不知道爆了多少人然后你猜怎么着周末反而是这周最稳的时候没有美股没有财报没有大消息 BTC就在63800到64500之间来回蹭每次跌到63800就有人接拉到64500就有人砸这个区间的多空博弈相当焦灼最值得关注的数据是BTC ETF 周五净流出2.25亿美元这周累计应该也是流出的但有意思的是ETF在流出BTC却不跌说明OTC市场的买盘在消化ETF的卖压这其实是一个很强的信号如果ETF流出都砸不动价格那ETF流入的时候呢还有一个信号 66K的位置压着4.77亿的空单清算强度一旦突破上去就是一波空头踩空但下方支撑也很牢周末的震荡就是在蓄力所以我的判断是这周虽然没有大行情但底部越来越实 BTC在这个位置横越久突破的时候爆发力就越强下周重点关注周二周三的美股走势如果能稳住6.6万就看7万今天还有几个值得 I didn't cut even after dropping 80%, but today it just rebounded But the rebound wasn't the coin I bought It is the PONS of the Robinhood Chain ecosystem Its market value soared to $56 million, setting a new all-time high I've been watching this coin for a while Previously, it had dropped 80% from its peak. At that time, on-chain data was completely silent The daily trading volume alone amounts to tens of thousands of dollars Then guess what This week, Robinhood Chain suddenly came back to life PONS nearly doubled from the bottom in a single day Active on-chain addresses surged This is no coincidence I looked through the overall Robinhood Chain ecosystem Discovered that a new developer project is being deployed on top of the platform This wave of rally is not pure speculative capital There is fundamental driving force inside ROBINHOOD, as a compliant exchange in the United States, promotes a public blockchain It comes with its own traffic As soon as one or two ecosystem projects emerge, The valuation logic of the entire chain will be reshaped PONS is the first meme coin in the Robinhood Chain ecosystem If the ecosystem continues to expand, it will still rise But it's also a double-edged sword Ecosystem meme coins rise quickly and fall just as fast I learned a lesson on CASHCAT before After several times the price went unsold and the price dropped, it fell back So my judgment is If you have PONS or similar Robinhood Chain ecosystem coins, Now you can grab it and other ecosystems that have become clearer The market is already starting to feel a bit nervous about the Fed's rate meeting next Wednesday. Crude oil once surged to $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike was pushed to 38%. A month ago, everyone was still discussing when to cut rates; now the market is already on guard against rate hikes, and this shift is happening quickly. My view is that rates are unlikely to change, and statements and press conferences will remain hawkish. Since Warsh took office, he has rarely given the market answers in advance, and oil prices have put inflation back on the table. He has no reason to rush to appease risk assets. If rates are maintained, tech stocks and BTC may breathe a sigh of relief first, and then still have to wait for press conferences. As long as he mentions the possibility of multiple rate hikes this year, I will lean toward reducing positions during the first wave of rebounds. If rates are raised directly, both the Nasdaq and the crypto world will face a round of rapid sell-offs. This time, I'm also facing Microsoft and Meta's earnings reports, as well as GDP and PCE data—any of which goes wrong will amplify volatility. I won't go all out in the direction ahead of time. On Wednesday, I'll first watch the rate decision, then see how US Treasury yields move. If yields keep rising, it's hard for risk asset gains to last long.Buy-in price 0.003, now 0.3. I'm not good at math, but this seems to be 100 times But don't get the wrong idea, I didn't buy it My best friend bought it, and she talks about it in my ear every day But what really concerned me was the flow of funds between public blockchains over the weekend SOL rose 1.52% today to 74.86 ETH rose 1.33% to 1880 BTC rose by 0. 61% to 64,356 Have you noticed? ETH's gains are larger than BTC's, and SOL's gains are even greater than ETH Then guess what This ranking actually signals that funds are moving toward high-risk, high-volatility directions When market sentiment recovers Funds first flow into BTC to determine direction Then, after BTC stabilized Overflowing funds will flow into ETH Only then will it flow into high-beta assets like SOL Currently, SOL has seen the highest gain This indicates that market sentiment is indeed recovering But there is an even more noteworthy highlight RWA perpetual monthly trading volume of $470 billion—do you know what that means? This is equivalent to the tokenization of bonds and funds in traditional finance The transaction volume of perpetual contracts generated on-chain is already comparable to the GDP of some small countries RWA is no longer a concept at all Real money is on the way Why RWA is positive for ETH Because the vast majority of RWA assets are issued on Ethereum Therefore, the higher the RWA trading volume, the higher ETH's on-chain activity ETH's fee income has also risen accordingly So my judgment is At this stage, SOL is suitable for short-term trading, with large gains and volatility ETH fits the medium-term RWA narrative to keep Ethereum alive BTC is suitable for holding for the long term and waiting for a breakout above 66,000 Each of the three chains has its own logic; which one you choose depends on your holding timeframe Let's also chat about a few hot topics and see if any of them are worth following #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 The repeated delays on the CLARITY Act are indeed frustrating. But from another perspective, both parties are pushing forward, but the timeline is stuck. If it doesn't pass before the August recess, we'll have to wait until September; if it doesn't pass in September, we'll have to wait until after the midterm elections. As long as the direction is right, being late is better than never. The more pessimistic people there are now, the greater the gap in expectations when the reality is realized. #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress The biggest good news of the weekend. Geopolitical cooling means reduced demand for safe-haven assets, with funds flowing back from gold and US Treasuries into risk assets. Previously, when the situation in Iran was tense, BTC couldn't fall and was already very strong; now, the rebound in risk appetite may actually be a catalyst. #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单 SK Hynix and Samsung have both secured major AI chip orders, once again reaffirming South Korea's semiconductor competitiveness. The crypto AI track will also be repeatedly reactivated by such news—the demand for AI computing power isn't just a story, it's really exploding. South Korea's pension fund has also started buying KOSPI, which is an important signal. #公链 #RWA BTC leads the rally but is highly fragmented among altcoins and is not a sign of a full breakout Is the current market experiencing a structural imbalance under BTC's single rally, rather than a broad-based rally? From the perspective of derivatives structure, BTC's funding rate remains in the neutral range of 0.01%-0.02%, with no extreme bullish crowding. The basis remains stable at 5%-8% annualized, and futures premiums have not surged, indicating that leveraged funds have not flowed in on a large scale. ETH's basis is slightly lower than BTC's, and the funding rate is near zero, reflecting increased institutional participation but lukewarm speculative sentiment. The SOL funding rate has been highly volatile, with the basis once exceeding 12%, suggesting local overheating risks for high-beta assets. - Bullish path: If BTC maintains its current low-speed rise without triggering a leveraged stamp, the basis repair of ETH and SOL may attract arbitrage capital inflows, driving altcoin rotation. The key condition is for the ETH/BTC exchange rate to stabilize and rebound above 0.035; otherwise, funds will continue to concentrate on BTC and a few strong altcoins. - Bearish risk: If BTC pulls back more than 5%, the current low funding rate means limited long stop-loss positions, but rapid basis narrowing could trigger chain liquidations. Among altcoins, weaker coins like $BEAT and $EDGE have seen significant liquidity shrinkage, and insufficient depth will amplify the decline. If retail sentiment indicators for $DOGE and $ZEC weaken, it could signal a fading risk appetite. - Cross-market transmission logic: As a liquidity anchor, if BTC continues to accumulate, existing ETH and SOL funds will be withdrawn, putting overall pressure on altcoins. However, AI narratives $TAO, $WLD, and DeFi leaders $HYPE remain independent, indicating that funds are concentrating in specific sectors rather than retreating entirely. $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, and other small-cap coins require caution due to high turnover rates, as their basis fluctuations may hide squeeze risks. Conclusion: The market is entering a selective phase dominated by BTC; positions should focus on capital flows rather than index fluctuations. Risk: Sudden widening of the basis or a negative BTC funding rate could trigger a structural reversal. $BTC $ETH $DOGE 100刀入场，现在变成10000刀，我人都傻了但我不是来说涨幅的我是想说今天链上出了一个我盯了半年的信号你们知道以太坊验证者退出队列吗之前ETH质押退出要排几个月的队结果今天一看退出队列归零了归零！！！这什么意思呢就是之前排队想跑路的验证者全跑光了现在没人想卖了然后你猜怎么着今天ETH从1851一路拉到1889 涨了1.33% 不算暴力但在这个位置已经很能说明问题了我翻了一下链上数据 AAVE也跟着涨了2.42% DeFi板块有点回暖的意思之前因为ETH质押解押导致AAVE的以太坊供应量骤降市场担心stETH出问题但现在退出队列归零说明最恐慌的时候已经过去了有质押者开始重新入场还有一个有意思的细节 ETH这波反弹的量不算大说明不是散户在拉而是聪明钱在悄悄建仓大资金不会一下子把量打出来那是给散户抬轿子他们喜欢在横盘期慢慢吃所以我的判断是 ETH虽然短期可能还磨但1800这个底越来越实了验证者退出归零是一个很明确的底部信号现在不上车等真的开始拉就来不及了我扫了一眼今天的消息面，有几个点想提一嘴 #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单 SK海力士ADR溢价一度高达51%，说明海外资金疯狂抢筹韩国AI芯片股。AI军备竞赛还在加速，这波不只是半导体行情，对加密的AI板块也有映射效应。AI+Crypto的叙事可能会重新热起来。 #黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信，获行业集体背书老黄这波操作挺聪明的。开源AI等于把生态做大。对加密圈来说，开源模型意味着链上AI代理可以免费或低成本调用顶级AI能力，DeFi+AI的落地会更快。Virtuals这类项目值得跟踪。 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 4700亿美元啊！RWA这个赛道已经不是概念了，是真金白银在跑。传统金融机构把债券、基金代币化到链上，永续合约的交易量直接起飞。这对ETH和整个DeFi生态都是长期利好。 #以太坊 #链上数据 #DeFi Three days ago, my account still had 20,000 left, Today I saw it had increased to 80,000 Family, who understands this feeling? When it crashed like a dog last week, I was still wondering when this lousy market would end But it quietly bounced back over the weekend BTC jumped directly from 63,700 to 64,400 Although that's less than a 1% increase But you really don't say it, you really don't say it It's already impressive that they can pull it back on this lifeless weekend Then guess what Market sentiment is actually seriously underestimated Among BlockBeats' 12 indicators, there are 5 buy signals and 0 sell signals The remaining 6 hold on In other words, although the market is hesitant, no one wants to leave Short sellers are cautious, while long sellers dare not increase their positions aggressively This position is actually quite subtle On top of $66,000 is a short position liquidation wall of 477 million Once they break through, the bears will be caught off guard But the question is, who will be the one to light this fire? ETFs closed on weekends, and data could only be viewed on Monday Friday's -225 million outflow was indeed unattractive However, BTC has not fallen This is the biggest trump card If ETFs flow out, they won't dump their prices That means spot buying is genuinely holding on So my judgment is This position is likely to rise horizontally With just 66,000 yuan, breaking through the short market and missing out is a sudden takeoff But don't chase after the high It's not too late to act after confirming a breakout with increased volume Returning to the hot topics outside the market, today's events are quite interesting #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? The big tech earnings season is indeed a barometer. Although Google Cloud's growth was good, advertising revenue was somewhat weak, and Tesla's deliveries also fell short of expectations. If tech stocks don't perform well before the US stock market opens, BTC will find it hard to rise on its own. But I feel the market has almost fully priced in the negative news. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 The CLARITY Act has been a series of twists and turns. It was originally thought that the event would be implemented before the August recess, but it was postponed again. In the short term, this is negative, but in the long run, both parties are pushing forward—it's only a matter of time. A drop at this level actually presents a buying opportunity. #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress This is the biggest good news this week. Geopolitical cooling is a tangible positive for risk assets. Previously, during the tense Iran situation, BTC always fell first and then rose. If there really is a ceasefire this time, risk aversion will decline and funds will flow back into the crypto world. #盘面分析 #清算 #周末行情 📊 $TRX Quick overview of liquidation Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $659.74 · 4 hours: $1,306.54 · 12 hours: $1,513.68 · 24 hours: $39,400 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $659.74 $0 100% 4h $659.74 $646.80 50.5% 12h $797.13 $716.56 52.7% 24h $14,200 $25,200 36.0% Duokong interpretation In the first 12 hours, long liquidations were slightly dominant (long positions accounted for 50.5%~100%), with prices fluctuating and falling in a short period; However, 24-hour short liquidations at $25,200 strongly overtook (64.0%), reversing direction within 12-24 hours, triggering a full-scale short squeeze. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "slight fluctuations in the first session → explosive short squeeze at the close." Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 1.67% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 3.32% of 24 hours · 12 hours accounts for 3.84% of 24 hours Liquidation distribution is extremely delayed: the first 12 hours accounted for only 3.84%, while the 24-hour total volume is 26.0 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating a strong short squeeze in the 12-24 hours (about $37,900 in the last 12 hours, accounting for 96.2% of the day). Currently, the market is in the stage of a short squeeze outbreak, with concentrated liquidations on short positions and tail sessions, but the total scale remains small, so attention should be paid to sustainability. A one-sentence explanation $TRX 24-hour short liquidation at $25,200, accounting for 64% of the total. After slight fluctuations in the early session, a full-scale short squeeze surged towards the close, with the bulls winning decisively. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress On the US East Coast on July 26, before the market opened, SanDisk continued to fluctuate upward, with a pre-market low of $1414 and a high of $1467, a maximum gain of 4.1%, and a pre-market price of $1455; On the previous trading day (7.24), it closed down 10.79% at $1,436.56. The pre-market market was a bottom-fishing recovery after overselling, leading the rise in the storage semiconductor sector, with Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all strengthening pre-market in parallel. - Pre-market order volume continues to rise, with concentrated low limit buy orders rushing in, and short stop-loss orders closing in concentrated, creating a short-term squeeze market; - Institutions placed overnight orders mainly for buying at low prices, with several long-term funds placing large custody orders in the $1420–1450 range, absorbing panic shares from the sharp drop on July 24; - On the options capital side, pre-market trading volume for call options surged, with capital betting on August earnings reporting exceeding expectations. US stocks like the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index futures both rebounded before the market closed, easing panic in tech stocks; Capital has diverted from high-level AI application stocks to the deeply corrected storage hardware sector, with the AI computing power storage industry chain forming a resonant recovery in the sector. TrendForce and Morgan Stanley simultaneously updated their late July industry reports, raising their forecasts for NAND flash memory price increases in the third quarter, expecting NAND contract prices to rise 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter, with even greater gains for AI server-specific eSSDs. Global original factory capacity continues to tilt toward high-margin HBM, with general-purpose NAND supply shrinking, industry inventories only lasting 2–4 weeks, far below the 8–12 week safety stock line; Amazon, Microsoft, Google On my way home from work in the afternoon, I kept checking the financial calendar, feeling that the market performance over the next four days probably won't be too boring. I didn't open many new positions today, mainly because all the important events in the past few days were packed together. Before the direction was released, keeping a lighter position actually helped me sleep soundly. Looking at the financial reports released a few days ago, a clear phenomenon is that the market has recently become increasingly skeptical about financial reports. Many companies have actually weakened after the news came out, giving a bit of a "whoever releases falls" vibe. Whether these tech giants can reverse this sentiment remains to be seen. In the coming days, what will truly impact the market is not just the earnings report, but also a series of macroeconomic data. Federal Reserve policy meetings, Microsoft and Meta earnings, GDP, PCE inflation data, as well as earnings from Amazon and Apple, will all be released one after another, meaning both macro and fundamentals are being tested by the market. In fact, Google, Tesla, and Nvidia have already handed over their papers ahead of schedule. Google's free cash flow has turned negative, and Tesla's profits have nearly halved. As for Nvidia, although it still has a billion-yuan floating profit on paper and still looks strong, its high valuation and high customer concentration have persisted, which have been the risk points I've been paying close attention to recently. When the market is good, these issues are easily overlooked, but once the market starts to reprice, they may regain focus. I personally pay more attention to Wednesdays. At present, the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged, so what truly affects sentiment is the signal released by Powell's speech. Personally, I believe he will remain cautious or even slightly hawkish in his wording, but the room for further tightening liquidity may be limited. The reason is simple: global tech companies are continuously ramping up AI investments. If liquidity suddenly tightens significantly, the entire computing power supply chain will be under pressure, which may not be the outcome the market wants to see. This time, I will focus on Microsoft's Azure business growth rate. If it falls below 38%, I will consider reducing some related positions, because the market now has very high expectations for AI business growth. If it falls short of expectations, valuation adjustments may occur. Meta is similar. The stock price has not been strong over the past half year. If Zuckerberg continues to emphasize large-scale AI capital spending in the future without providing a clearer path to realize profits, I think market sentiment may remain cautious, and funds may not be willing to chase higher prices. On Thursday, the pressure mainly came from macro data. GDP and PCE will be released before the market opens. Currently, the market's biggest concern remains the risk of stagflation—economic growth is slowing, but inflation remains elevated. If inflation continues to stay near **2.5%**, high-valuation technology sectors may continue to face valuation pressure. This time, Amazon is mainly focusing on AWS. Currently, the market estimates AWS's growth rate is about 33%. If it reaches or even surpasses this level, it will still provide some support for the computing power and storage industry chains of Nvidia, SK Hynix, and Micron; If the price falls significantly short of expectations, the overall sentiment of the AI industry chain could be affected. Apple, on the other hand, isn't that complicated. I don't care much about how much future plans management discusses; I'd rather look at the sales data in the Chinese market, because real sales data is more valuable than stories. My biggest impression recently is that the market is indeed different from the past two years. Previously, as long as the AI story was big enough, capital was willing to pay in advance; Nowadays, people are increasingly focused on cash flow, profitability, and the speed of realization. For companies that keep investing but still don't see commercial returns, or whose clients are too concentrated, I still remain cautious at this stage—I'd rather earn less than bear too much volatility just to gamble on expectations. Back to today's crypto scene. BTC is still oscillating between 65,200 and 65,400, with 65,700 above still serving as a rebound after a breakout, while 66,200–66,500 has gradually formed a new resistance zone. ETH has gradually rebounded from around 1850 to around 1880. Although the uptrend line still provides some support, the rebound is clearly weak, and bulls have not yet shown strong sustained offensive potential. Additionally, I noticed a detail: although ETF funds occasionally see net inflows, the overall price hasn't formed an effective follow-up trend, indicating that the current market is more like a game of internal competition among existing funds rather than new incremental funds continuously entering the market. In this situation, I still prioritize position control, waiting for all key data to materialize before deciding whether to increase the position. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $ETH $BTC Just went through this week's reports Google Cloud annual growth 82% Tesla revenue annual growth 26% Intel data center and AI revenue annual growth 59% Looking at just these numbers I'd roughly say this week's earnings reports aren't bad But after the three companies announced their earnings The next day they fell 7.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% respectively That's a bit awkward Google's quarterly CapEx is nearly $45 billion Tesla's free cash flow turned negative $1.09 billion Intel is also preparing to keep investing in 14A The market isn't doubting AI usage It's more like they don't want to just hear companies say demand is great You say demand is great, so where's the money earned? Google Cloud is indeed making more profit But the whole company's cash flow is still negative due to CapEx As for Tesla, deliveries and revenue have returned But the money earned from cars has to be used to support Robotaxi and Optimus Intel's core business is much better than the net loss of $11 billion on paper But wafer foundry is still losing money Oil prices have climbed above $100 these days The 10-year bond yield is also close to 4.7% Money has become more expensive Wall Street naturally has less patience to wait for you to slowly break even No wonder after writing these three earnings reports this week I'm increasingly hesitant to just look at revenue Recently, SHIB has been like taking a drug—after a period of silence, it suddenly surged rapidly, breaking out of its long-term range and significantly increasing trading volume. Many people's first reaction is: "Is SHIB going to have some major positive news?" However, based on current market information, this rally is not driven by a single piece of news but by multiple factors appearing simultaneously, with capital and sentiment jointly driving this rally. The first thing worth paying attention to is the change in on-chain capital. According to CryptoQuant Exchange Netflow data, SHIB has recently experienced multiple net outflows from exchanges, with single-day net outflows reaching tens or even hundreds of billions of SHIB. Simply put, some holders are moving SHIB from exchanges to personal wallets. For the market, this means fewer tradable chips in the short term exchange, which may reduce selling pressure. Of course, withdrawals do not necessarily mean prices will rise, but in the crypto market, exchange inflows and outflows have always been an important indicator for observing capital behavior. When the market sees a large number of SHIB exits exchanges, attention also begins to focus: Is there a large amount of capital preparing in advance? Besides changes in capital flows, coin burning data has once again become a hot topic in the market. Recent Shibburn data shows that SHIB burns have significantly increased during certain periods, with single-day burns even seeing a substantial rise. Although the current scale of token burning is not yet enough to change the overall SHIB supply, for the SHIB community,$DEXE didn't crash randomly — the project's own wallets sent $6.2M to Binance. 625,000 DEXE moved from team/treasury wallets to exchange right before the dump. That's insiders positioning, not panic. Entry: 4.20–4.40 TP1: 3.70 | TP2: 3.30 | TP3: 2.80 SL: 4.60 Thin float, most supply locked in DAO treasury — that's why moves swing violently. Team hasn't explained the transfers. Until they do, trust stays broken. Betting the distrust bleeds this lower. $DEXE [HYPE continues to buy back and burn shares, fundamentals remain bullish, still depends on fee continuation] HYPE's token supply logic is biased, with the core being whether platform revenue can be continuously converted into burning. Hyperliquid generated approximately $1.4 million in fees and burned 20,640 HYPE, valued at approximately $1.2 million, in the past 24 hours; A total of 47.27 million tokens have been burned, accounting for 4.73% of the maximum supply of 1 billion tokens. Fee-driven buyback burns can provide quantifiable supply contraction when trading is active, but it does not guarantee a one-sided price increase and is still influenced by market transaction volume and risk appetite. If platform fees remain or grow and the burn mechanism is continuously implemented, fundamental support will be strengthened; If transaction heat drops and fees fall, the marginal push of supply narratives will weaken. The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.[TSLA Sentiment Disturbed by Noise—Let's See Public Opinion Cool Down First] Musk core assets like TSLA are more easily stirred by personality controversies in the short term, rather than immediately gaining incremental consensus. The editor-in-chief of The Economist directly criticized Musk for being out of touch with reality, amplifying European panic, and far-right rhetoric, with a tense atmosphere on site. Musk responded forcefully, further amplifying the polarized nature of his public image. For the market, such public opinion conflicts usually increase divisions first rather than reduce uncertainty. If the focus shifts back to products and execution, TSLA's sentiment will have a better chance of stabilizing. The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.比特币长期持有者的筹码囤积规模创下六年新高。链上数据清晰显示，大量BTC持续从交易所流向私钥钱包，长期持仓群体不断吸筹。历经多轮牛熊周期洗礼，这批长线投资者并未随短期行情波动抛售筹码，反而趁市场调整持续积累现货。历史规律来看，长期持有者囤币情绪到达阶段性峰值，往往意味着市场抛压逐步出清，底部区间正在慢慢构筑，但这不代表短期行情会立刻启动，筑底震荡仍会是常态。 $BTC 📊 $AVAX Quick Overview of Liquidation Scale of liquidations · 1 hour: $6.68 · 4 hours: $27,700 · 12 hours: $155,600 · 24 hours: $672,600 Mostly and bearish distribution Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position 1h $6.68 $0 100% 4h $27,100 $597.21 97.8% 12h $38,800 $116,800 24.9% 24h $54,400 $618,200 8.1% Duokong interpretation In the first 4 hours, long liquidations dominated (long positions accounted for 97.8%~100%), but the scale was very small, indicating a short-term opening disturbance; 12-hour short blow-ups at $116,800 suddenly overtook (75.1%), triggering a short squeeze rally; In 24 hours, short liquidations at $618,200 further crushed the bulls (accounting for 91.9%), with a full-scale and intense escalation of short squeezes. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "short-term long selling→ persistent extreme short squeezing," with bears facing devastating liquidation. Time distribution · 1 hour accounts for 0.001% of 24 hours · 4 hours accounts for 4.12% of 24 hours · 12 hours accounts for 23.13% of 24 hours Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 23.13%, while the total 24-hour volume is 4.32 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that the short squeeze market escalated sharply between the 12-24 hours (about $517,000 in the last 12 hours, or 76.9% of the whole day). Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with bears suffering heavy losses, but after extreme gains, caution is needed to be aware of the risk of sharp pullbacks. A one-sentence explanation $AVAX 24-hour short liquidations amounted to $618,200, accounting for 91.9% of the total. The short squeeze surged sharply in the latter half, with the bulls winning decisively. 🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff. 📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives. Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%. Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading. Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow. 📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess. Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight. Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026. 🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign. A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat. Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes. 💎 Summary Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress [CXMT funding rate flattened, widening divergence between bulls and bears] Changxin-related sentiment is more like a tug-of-war, not a one-sided consensus. trade.xyz, the stock's contract was quoted at $6.3588, with an annualized funding rate of 6.2%, which has already become neutral. The largest position was 1x short at $14.68 million, but the second and third largest addresses held long positions of $6.96 million and $5.04 million respectively, with the second largest address continuing to add positions today. If funding rates remain stable but bullish chasing weakens, this divergence is more likely to evolve into high-level consolidation. The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.

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