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*Streak:* 4 straight beats. Q2: $16.13B vs $14.43B (+11.8%), EPS $0.42 vs $0.21 — doubled. Q3 25: $13.65B vs $13.17B (+3.7%).
*Why YES:*
CPU price +30% in 2026 (Oct 5 hike). Server CPUs in shortage — AI inference needs 1:1 CPU:GPU. Intel shifted wafers from PC to servers. 18A output +25% above target.
*Terafab angle:*
Fab 62 Arizona install underway — ops late 27/28. 14A risk prod H2 27. External foundry $293M Q2. Need named 14A customer.
*Call: 70% YES — beat on Xeon pricing, but margin 42% ZEC two-day summary: 1,122 bottom → 1,238 peak → 1,200 consolidation, net increase of 4.4%. The key signal is price rising while open interest (OI) decreases: OI -2%, fee rate from -0.009% to +0.007%, indicating the rally is driven by short covering rather than new long entries. In the 24h liquidation, shorts liquidated 1.267 million U, exceeding longs at 689,000 U, confirming the covering logic. ZEC/BTC rose 5.1%; despite BTC breaking below 80,000 three times, it failed to drag down ZEC, showing relative strength. Resistance at 1,238 (tested twice but not broken), support at 1,188/1,178. Scenarios: break above 1,238 targets 1,259 (35% probability); range-bound (45%); break below 1,178 targets 1,105 (20%). Risks: concentrated leverage may cause spikes; if BTC falls below 78,000, strong momentum may not hold. Not investment advice. #Zcash主网激活Ironwood升级，上线新屏蔽池 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ With SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report approaching, the market is truly focused not just on whether quarterly profits can hit new highs again, but more importantly on whether HBM4 can take over to support the next growth phase.
Looking solely at Q3 performance, there is actually little suspense. AI server demand remains high, HBM3E shipments steadily increase, and with DRAM and NAND prices overall staying strong, quarterly profits are very likely to continue looking good, with a high probability of setting new records—this is basically the market consensus.
However, the boost HBM4 provides to this earnings report should not be overestimated. Currently, HBM4 is just entering mass production; yield ramp-up and customer validation require time, so Q3 and even Q4 this year are unlikely to contribute much substantial revenue. Real volume growth is basically expected next year. On the contrary, if the market has already priced in full expectations, any earnings report showing HBM4 progress or shipment guidance below expectations could easily trigger a pullback after the good news is realized.
In the long term, SK Hynix's first-mover advantage in the HBM field remains solid, and the high-bandwidth memory demand driven by AI computing upgrades is far from over. But the core focus of this Q3 earnings report has never been the current profit figures; it is the management's shipment pace and price guidance for HBM4 next year—that is the key factor determining the subsequent market trend.$UNITREE is really strong this time.
On October 16, it was still hovering around 405, but today it closed at 672, with an intraday high of 737.5. It rose over 65% in 7 trading days, and on October 23, it even hit its first 20cm daily limit since listing.
There are many catalysts: the Physical AI Conference, H2-X launch, Wang Xingxing saying the "ChatGPT moment" is coming soon, and Morgan Stanley being even more aggressive, jumping two levels from "underweight" to "overweight" with a target price of 995.
But look at today's turnover rate of 37.72% and amplitude over 20%. On the leaderboard, Goldman Sachs bought and sold at the same seat, with institutions fiercely exchanging chips at high levels. This is not a slow bull market; it's emotion-driven short squeeze.
The Q3 report will be released on October 29. The market is watching: whether the non-recurring profit turns positive, the proportion of industrial scenario orders, and humanoid robot shipments.
The story is very attractive, but the PE ratio is already over 460 times, far exceeding the industry average.
My approach: don't chase the high, keep a base position, and wait for the Q3 report to translate the "story" into "numbers" before taking action.
Preserving ammunition is more important than guessing the top. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $USDC issued another 250 million in the middle of the night. Has the bottom-fishing ammunition really arrived?
But Circle's own weekly report doesn't say so: for the week ending 10/22, about 12.8 billion USDC was issued, about 13.3 billion redeemed, with a net circulation decrease of about 500 million, marking two consecutive weeks of net decrease. The printing press is in the left hand, redemption in the right, and the right hand is faster.
BTC is falling, there are large single-day ETF outflows, USDC circulation has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the capital flow signals are not yet strong. A single issuance does not equal new funds entering the market. Even if $BTC retakes 80,000 USD, it still depends on whether subsequent capital flows can keep up. Yushu Technology (688836) surged 60% in 7 days, how should we play this wave? 🧐
Yushu has been crazy these days! On 10/16 it was stuck at 404, today it closed at 672, with an intraday high of 737, soaring over 60% in 7 trading days. On the 23rd, it even hit its first 20cm daily limit up since listing, with turnover rate once spiking above 37%. A typical event-driven plus emotion-driven short squeeze, more thrilling than a roller coaster. 🎢
The catalysts are indeed intense: the Physical AI Conference heated up expectations for the "embodied intelligence tipping point," the H2-X guardian model was launched, and Morgan Stanley directly upgraded two levels to "overweight" with a target price of 995. The story is very attractive, but we need to keep a clear head.
This wave is a sharp rally, not a slow bull market, with daily amplitude over 20% and turnover over 30%. On the leaderboard, institutions and Goldman Sachs are both buying and selling at the same seats, with chips violently exchanged at high levels. Rolling PE is nearly 400 times; once sentiment fades, the pullback will be very fast.
The Q3 report is coming soon (10/29), my strategy is simple:
1️⃣ Don't chase highs — turnover >30% is a divergence signal, don't catch the knife at the emotional peak.
2️⃣ Watch core indicators — gross margin, operating cash flow, humanoid orders/prepayments; this is the watershed from "storytelling" to "having performance."
3️⃣ Manage positions — if data is good and it holds above 680, keep half the position as a base; if average but stable above 620, reduce to 30%; if it falls below 620 or data bombs, cut to below 10%.
4️⃣ Iron rule — total loss no more than 8% of principal, reduce position unconditionally when triggered. $ETH $APR feels like it won't rally until the longs are fully cleared, and once the longs are cleared, it will be the shorts' turn. It's best to just watch this coin; the control over the market is too intense.#StrategyQ3BTCGains
📅 *Oct 29, After Close — Est: $17.25 EPS | $128.03M Rev*
But Q3 25: *$128.69M vs $116.65M BEAT (+10.3%)*, $2.8B net profit on BTC.
*BTC is earnings:*
Holds ∼640K BTC ($70B+). Fair-value accounting now — price swings = profit. Q3 EPS est swing $14 to $21.50
*History:* 0/4 EPS beats last 4Q, but 3/4 revenue beats. Stock $153, -50% from $299 high, beta 3.56.
*Call: 60% YES on revenue, coin-flip on EPS — BTC price will decide.* Watch BTC yield target 30% + $20B gain guide.$UNITREE's core logic has only two points:
First, the short squeeze fuel is exhausted. The extreme negative funding rate of -1.16% indicates that shorts have been mostly washed out. Without short covering as buying pressure, the upward momentum will inevitably fade.
Second, sentiment is overextended + severely overbought. The FOMO sentiment transmitted from the A-share surge has reached its peak, and RSI is extremely overbought. Around 104 is the short-term ceiling; chasing longs means taking the bag.
Operation:
Light short positions near 100, with defense at previous highs. More conservative approach is to wait for volume to break below 95 to confirm weakness before chasing. Target is to retest below 90.
Do not chase highs, short on rallies, and set stop losses properly. Consult the market when there is no clear direction.NEAR is currently trading around $5.00, down 3.79% in the last 24 hours. After reaching a high of $5.45 during the day, it retreated and is consolidating weakly near $5.00. The short-term structure is bearish: the price has fallen below the 7-day SMA ($5.01) and the 20-day SMA ($5.07), with the EMA12 at $5.04 also pressing down from above. However, looking further down, the 50-day SMA is at $4.13 and the 200-day SMA at $2.38, with the price still well above these two mid-term anchors. The EMA26 is at $4.82, so the long-term uptrend structure has not been invalidated. The MACD fast and slow lines are tightly converged at 0.2146, with the histogram at zero, indicating a mid-term upward trend. Bollinger Band %B is 0.4393, with the price below the middle band at $5.07 and tilting toward the lower band at $4.51. The ATR of $0.55 means the average daily volatility is close to 11%, so key levels changing hands within a trading day is not surprising. On the news front, NEAR recently suffered a loss of about $3.8 million due to a vulnerability incident, causing the market to drop as much as 8.8%, which is the most direct short-term suppressive factor. On the derivatives side, there is a notable divergence: open interest dropped sharply by 13.96% in 24 hours to about $263 million. Such a scale of contraction usually corresponds to position liquidations or active deleveraging, but the 1-hour buy/sell ratio still reports 1.2146, indicating buyers have not fully exited in this deleveraging environment. Bears have not gained full control, and bulls lack enough fuel to trigger a reversal. The $5.00 level itself reflects a stalemate between bulls and bears. Conclusion first: $DOOD rose another 22.5% today, but it wasn't driven by buying pressure; rather, shorts were covering at this price level.
On 10-21, I wrote that it surged 78% in 8 hours; on 10-22, I noted it retraced 52.9% from 0.0049. This time, looking at the funding rate signs: DOOD settles every 4 hours, and the last four periods were all negative (04:00 -0.0173%, 08:00 -0.0196%, 12:00 -0.0169%), meaning shorts pay longs.
At 14:00, the 1H volume was $20.51 million, 16 times the previous bar; open interest went from $1.75 million at 13:00 to $3.29 million at 15:00, an 88% increase. This is not shorts retreating, but new shorts entering, paying more and more. 0.0169% every 4 hours, 6 times a day, annualized at 37%, so those chasing shorts at 0.002 are bleeding money.
Two points on the order book: OKX perpetual 24-hour volume is $39 million, 13 times the spot volume of $2.96 million; the real price discovery is on Upbit's KRW market, with 24-hour turnover of 35.1 billion KRW (about $26.5 million), exceeding its entire market cap, while Upbit's USDT market only trades $3 per day.
Circulating supply is 78%, down 89% from the October 2025 peak. With this kind of "KRW market pumping and perpetual shorts covering," should you follow or avoid?A week of growth raises a question: How did Unitree go from 57U to 100U?
In 7 trading days, it rebounded over 60%, approaching 100U intraday today, with market cap returning to 40 billion U. This surge relies on four key factors:
First, policy strikes. The first batch of humanoid robot national standards was approved, with Wang Xingxing himself as one of the drafters; nine departments issued documents promoting embodied intelligence in commercial trade scenarios.
Second, new product explosion. The H2-X "Kung Fu Legend" lasts 8 hours, can lift cars and kick in car doors. The video went viral overseas, with a US influencer with millions of followers saying sharply: "Much better than popcorn sellers"—referring to Tesla.
Third, industry resonance. Tesla officially confirmed Optimus entering mass production lines, aiming to double to one million units annually; OpenAI announced entering the robot manufacturing field.
Fourth, oversold correction. From the first day at 155U down to 57U, there was already a need for correction.
But two cold data points must be presented: the backflip stunt at the press conference broke a leg, and the video spread wider than the promo; PE ratio is already 430 times upwards, with the highest institutional target price at 52U, current price is twice that.
[Mid-to-long term outlook] The risk of chasing highs outweighs the opportunity. The real watershed is the Q3 report on October 29: whether shipment volume can climb and whether industrial and commercial revenue proportion can break 10%. Wang Xingxing himself said the industry's "ChatGPT moment" is still 2 to 3 years away—buying into this time gap requires patience to wait for performance to catch up with market value. $UNITREE $BTC #StockEarningsSeason #USStockEarnings
My judgment: $HOOD will most likely be another case of "decent numbers, but the stock price doesn't buy it."
Not bearish, but after its last 5 earnings reports, the stock dropped the next day by: -2.9%, -10.8%, -8.9%, -13.2%, -3.6%. Three of those were even better than expected.
This time the results come out around 4 AM Beijing time on Wednesday (10/28). The market expects EPS around $0.55 and revenue about $1.42 billion, with EPS still lower than last year's $0.61 for the same period. Options imply volatility roughly 8%–10%.
What I really want to see isn’t the EPS, but two small lines:
Crypto trading revenue was only $100 million last quarter, down 38%
Event contracts (prediction markets) were $156 million last quarter, already more profitable than crypto
A brokerage that got famous through crypto trading is now being overtaken by "guessing games and data predictions"—kind of surreal.
Price-wise, it closed near 95 on Friday, Binance perpetual futures dropped to 93.8 over the weekend, just below the 95 ascending trendline. If it really breaks, the next level to watch is around 85. $COIN, which also benefits from crypto traffic, reports after market close Thursday, so this week is quite lively.
Will it drop for the 6th time or finally rise this time? One word in the comments: up / down. I'll post a follow-up with the answer after the results.
Personal opinion, not investment advice The 80,000 regained over the weekend was lost again during Monday daytime
The closing post over the weekend just said the 80,000 was held, but it was proven wrong in less than a day.
During the Asian session on Monday, $BTC once fell below 79,400 USD, now around 80,000 USD (Beijing time 15:34) — the line regained over the weekend was lost again during Monday daytime. $ETH also slid to about 2,318 USD, not far from the 2,300 USD support; $XRP touched 1.27 USD intraday, close to the 1.26 USD line mentioned in the morning.
The trigger is not new, but compounded by: risk aversion ahead of the FOMC results early Thursday Beijing time, cooling AI trading dragging down risk assets, plus rumors that the US and Israel might strike Iran after the midterm elections. On the ETF side, about 770 million USD flowed out again over Thursday and Friday, with buying retreating first.
Yesterday it was said the cost line was underfoot, but today the line underfoot broke once. The real next round will be the US stock market opening on Monday and the FOMC early Thursday.周一美股开盘能不能拉起来？大饼卡在7.9w-8w区间，这里到底算不算底？直接说我的看法，今晚一定要盯紧，大行情说不定马上就来！ 周末消息面又开始搅动市场，关税加码、美债持续走高、原油扛着跌不动，美伊那边后续走向谁也说不准。 不少人还在等着BTC继续下探，看7.3w、7.5w的深度回调再进场，市场上恐慌的声音到处都是。但我一直在想，这么多人都等着同一个低点，真的会如愿给到这个机会吗？只要美联储态度松动、降息预期慢慢回暖，一波放量大阳线随时有可能拔起来。 我自己的判断，日内继续大跌的空间不大，眼下这波震荡，更像是最后的洗盘。 很多利空早就提前计价了，大选结果带来的预期、加息预期推高美元，资金跑去银行吃利息，这些早就反映在K线上面了，这也是最近空头很难再打出大跌的关键。 再看现货ETF资金，这十天的资金动静基本集中在IBIT，一半时间流出，周末更是转流出，整体小幅流入7400万，力度算不上强。FBTC持续流出、GBTC小幅赎回，大多是机构做对冲。真正的反转信号，得等连续两天稳定净流入，IBIT不再赎回，ARKB、摩根丹利这些产品同步进场才行。 重点看7.9w–8w，守住了，这里很大概率就是底Someone asked me, BTC has been hovering above 80000 all day, has the position actually moved? 🤔
Let me make a statement first: the large positions basically haven't moved; what's moving is the coins returning to the exchange.
Let's start with the evidence: BTC's open interest changed only 0.05% in a day, and just 0.02% in an hour — that's not movement, it's nailed in place; ETH shrank 1.17% in a day but recovered 0.31% in an hour, the only one among the top three major coins to turn positive in an hour; SOL shrank 0.41% in a day and dropped another 0.05% in an hour, still hovering; ZEC increased 2.87% in a day and also rose 0.90% in an hour, the only one increasing on both ends.
Looking at another line: the BTC wallet balance on exchanges increased by 954 coins, reaching a total of 2,499,000 coins. Coins are moving to convenient places, but positions are nailed down — I interpret this combination as big money placing chips on the table, not yet deciding whether to push or not.
The entire network's open interest shrank 0.32% in a day, remaining at 138.823 billion, and volume also shrank 7.31%, down to 122.44 billion; volume shrinks, positions steady, no one makes the first move.
So my answer is: before positions move, I won't chase ZEC's position increase, nor will I catch ETH's hourly positive flip; if the balance increases again, then I'll take a half-step bullish look. The answer isn't in the price changes, but in which direction the coins move. Until this line changes, my hands won't leave the table, and chips won't be pushed forward 👀On the morning of January 28, 2021, at 7 AM, someone opened a short position on DOGE at $0.025. By noon, he was only $0.0013 away from liquidation.
That day, DOGE surged from $0.008 to $0.028, more than tripling. His logic was straightforward: this coin basically has no value, so shorting it is like helping the price return to normal. Around 8 AM, the price did drop back near $0.02, and his unrealized profit was quite comfortable.
Then the price started pushing up. $0.03, $0.035, $0.04 — he kept adding to his position at a loss, with the last addition at $0.048. The position size kept increasing, the average entry price kept rising, and his unrealized loss grew from $10,000 to $20,000 and then to $50,000.
The liquidation price finally settled at $0.0883, leaving only about $30,000 to $40,000 margin in the account.
On Binance, the price had already broken through $0.0883. But he was using another exchange, where the highest price only reached about $0.087. Just missing that $0.001, the price then reversed. By 4 PM, it dropped back near $0.04, and he closed all his positions, accepting a $10,000 loss, then went to sleep.
Two days later, DOGE fell to $0.022. Holding on would not only have recovered his losses but also made a profit. He said he didn’t regret it at all because surviving that situation that day was already luck.
Being right about the direction doesn’t mean the position size was right. Just because it will fall doesn’t mean it should fall now. The market always has a next opportunity, but your capital might not last until then. 🔥 Lost $36.13 million! $ZEC's largest short whale surrenders, every last bit of bone scraps eaten clean
The most brutal short squeeze defeat has occurred. The largest on-chain ZEC short whale increased shorts from $400 all the way to nearly 40,000 coins, with a liquidation price of $2292. When ZEC surged to $1490, he closed all positions at market price within 1.5 hours, ultimately suffering a $36.13 million loss.
But the most heartbreaking part isn't the loss, it's his trump card: while closing the short positions, he didn't sell a single one of the 202,000 spot coins he held. The short positions lost $36 million, but the spot holdings had an unrealized profit of $221 million. He reversed positions and directly went long on 1,330 BTC.
The short isn't dead, just switched direction to long. The core driver for ZEC is the NU7 upgrade (block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds). After the short exit, funding rates once soared to an annualized 170%. If you're a retail trader still trying to short this extreme short squeeze with tens of thousands of dollars, your chips are just stepping stones on the whale's rebalancing path.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 It's just past 1 PM, I just finished eating and opened the market screen. Do you feel like BTC is now oscillating up and down and seems to have stabilized, making your hands itch to jump in and bottom-fish? Don't rush to act yet!
Look at the green bars for $BTC earlier on the chart: there was indeed a net inflow of fifty to sixty million in 1-hour and 2-hour intervals. Retail investors think the opportunity has arrived and rush in hard, but if you look further right at the long-term data, the 30-day contract net outflow reached as high as 7.682 billion, and spot also saw an outflow of 1.237 billion. The short-term inflows are all to lure retail investors to take the bags; big money started a frantic retreat a month ago.
Now look at $ETH — this data is even more painful! The short-term 1-hour just saw an inflow of over 80 million, but over 30 days, contract funds fled 8.595 billion, and spot outflow was 3.784 billion. The capital loss in ETH is even more severe than BTC. Every short-term rebound is providing liquidity for big money to unload.
Finally, $SOL is somewhat more resistant to decline, but the 30-day contracts also saw nearly 2 billion outflow. The overall trend remains outflow.
Summary: Don't be fooled by the green bars in just a few minutes; this is called giving you a little sweetness in the short term while hollowing out your principal in the long term. Big money is cashing out crazily on the rebound. Without real money propping it up, what will drive the price up? I firmly stay out of the market and watch. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI
*$GOOGL Q3 — Will It Beat? (Oct 28)*
*Est:* EPS $3.03 | Rev $127.92B (+25% YoY)
*Bull case:*
12Q beat streak. Q3 25: +27% beat ($2.87 vs $2.26).
Cloud $24.8B (+82%), backlog $514B. Search still +14.5% despite AI fears. Gemini 650M MAUs.
*Bear:*
CapEx $93B. Last beat stock -7%. Headline $9.11 EPS inflated by Anthropic gains.
*Verdict: 80% YES — Revenue beat likely. Cloud >35% = pump.*Brothers, the Ethereum Foundation is selling coins again, specifically dumping when the market is down.
On-chain data shows that addresses associated with the Foundation sold 2,785 ETH through CoW Swap two hours ago, cashing out $6.42 million.
This isn't the first time. Looking back at history:
In May 2021, they transferred 35,000 ETH to Kraken, then ETH dropped from 3500 to 1825;
Near the cycle peak in November 2021, they transferred another 20,000 ETH;
In August 2024, they transferred 35,000 ETH again, cashing out $94 million;
In July this year, they also sold 10,000 ETH OTC at an average price of 2572.
This time even earlier, on October 12, they deposited 4,393 ETH to Kraken at a price of 2534, which has now dropped to just over 2300.
The Foundation selling coins doesn't necessarily mean they are bearish, but they always choose to dump when the market is under pressure, which inevitably makes holders uneasy. You say they aren't dumping, but they sell every day; you say they are bearish, but it's not always actual selling. However, this supply pressure, combined with the continuous bleeding of ETFs, indeed makes it difficult for ETH to rebound in the short term.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC The biggest confidence in $SNDK lies in NBM's long-term locked orders, with tens of billions in guaranteed orders, so there's no fear of a sudden crash in spot prices. AI inference SSD demand remains tight, and buybacks are also supporting the bottom line, so the long-term logic hasn't collapsed.
However, the previous phase of sharp spot NAND price increases is over, and the pace of price hikes has slowed, putting pressure on spot gross margins. The market has already priced in a high valuation; earnings reports that just meet expectations won't drive prices up much. Only new significant long-term contracts, shipments, and gross margins exceeding expectations will trigger another rally; if guidance is weak, it's easy for positive sentiment to be realized and cause a sell-off.
Also, keep an eye on Micron and Hynix's earnings reports, as the storage sector is highly correlated.
In simple terms, this is not a bear market but a transition from accelerated growth to a high-level consolidation phase. It's suitable for light positions to play on upside surprises following the trend, but not for chasing highs with heavy positions and holding stubbornly. Focus on NBM's new orders, gross margins, and customer delivery pace. $CAP's largest open position on the field happens to be the most dangerous one right now! ⚠️
The long positions outnumber the shorts by more than half, making it the dominant force on the field.
But within such a large position, over 70% of the longs are losing money.
For the losing long positions, a slight price drop brings them closer to their stop-loss, and further down leads to liquidation.
Once these positions are liquidated, they become market sell orders; the more longs there are, the greater the selling pressure.
On the short side, over 60% are already in profit, so there's no rush to buy back.
Some think that because there are more longs and a bigger position, the price can't fall.
In fact, it's the opposite: the bigger the position and the more people losing, the harsher the stampede when prices drop.
The largest position could turn into a sell order at any moment, so it's wise to short first here!#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Folks, after the U.S. stock market closed on October 27, Robinhood (HOOD), the retail investor stronghold, is set to deliver its Q3 report. This earnings report is quite crucial; it will directly tell us whether retail investors in both the crypto space and U.S. stocks still have ammunition.
First, let's look at its last quarter's foundation, which was indeed strong. Q2 revenue was $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year, and net client deposits hit a record high of $22 billion. Amid the turbulence in both U.S. stocks and crypto, attracting so much money shows that retail investor enthusiasm is still alive.
But for this Q3 report, the market is focusing on two things:
First, has trading activity declined or not? Bitcoin has been repeatedly testing the 80,000 level recently, and many altcoins have fallen so much they’re barely recognizable. If retail investors are trapped or scared to move, Robinhood’s crypto trading fee income will definitely shrink. This is its core business; if the data looks bad, the stock price will take a hit immediately.
Second, how are the increments from new businesses? Everyone knows Robinhood is now working on on-chain wallets, prediction markets, and even tokenized U.S. stocks. If these new stories are all hype with little real revenue contribution, the market won’t buy it.
If its trading data remains strong, it means retail investors are still frantically bottom-fishing or speculating, so Bitcoin’s support below still has resilience. If its data bombs out, it means retail investors are truly drained and have no money to enter the market, so Bitcoin will have to keep enduring. $BTC $BTC
To conclude first: I lean towards 80,000 being a topping rather than a bottom. The reasoning is straightforward—current price around 80,100, 24-hour low at 79,322, already had a wick once, and the data from OKX and Binance align; the rebound to 80,900 lacks strength, volume can't keep up.
However, with Microsoft, Google, and Amazon earnings reports all coming this week, the market will likely be shaken around, so I don't take this conclusion as absolute, just a way to keep myself in check.
A bit of cold news keeps me holding a base position: developers are drafting BIP-360 and BIP-361, specifically to counter quantum computing, and they've planned migration paths for old addresses. Not many took this seriously a year ago.
On-chain, there's a guy using 30x leverage long on 795 BTC, who added margin a couple of days ago and is floating a loss of over 800,000 USD. I can't control others; near 80,000, I only keep a base position, no additional contracts.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Don't rush to celebrate; the real test comes after the data
This week's market, what I worry about most is one scenario: everyone stays up late waiting for the Fed's decision, and when it comes out, they feel relieved as if the tension is finally over, but then the next day's data drags the market harshly back to reality.
According to the schedule, after the October rate meeting concludes, the U.S. will also release GDP and personal spending data, including the core PCE inflation indicator. This means the rate decision is just the first boot; the data that truly determines the subsequent policy direction is still to come. The market's first reaction to the statement will most likely have to undergo a "rework" after the second round of data.
If the decision is dovish, the market just breathes a sigh of relief, but if the following inflation data unexpectedly strengthens, those risk assets that just rose could come under pressure again at any time. Conversely, if the press conference is hawkish but the subsequent data clearly cools down, the initial pessimism may also be quickly corrected.
So, don't be quick to label the first big bullish candle after the rate decision. The real game often only begins after all the data has landed. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC vs $ETH : Everyone Is Betting, Nobody Is Winning
The bears are clearly in control of positioning, but there's something funny about this market.
Even with prices falling, a huge amount of short capital is still underwater.
And the bulls? They're having an even worse time.
My view: ETH looks more vulnerable, while BTC is showing signs of stronger short-term buying interest.
But I wouldn't underestimate the possibility of a sudden squeeze.
When both sides are losing money.Most traders have experienced this: after three consecutive stop-losses, the fourth trade automatically becomes smaller. It's not due to disciplined position reduction, but a psychological barrier. This isn't strong risk control; it's the mental accounting at work.
Mental accounting is a concept from behavioral economics where people categorize money in their minds. The same $100 feels different when earned versus when it comes from a paycheck. The same applies to trading $SOL contracts: the money in the account is divided into virtual accounts—one for principal, one for unrealized profits, and one for losses from stop-losses. After three consecutive losses, the mental number in the stop-loss account grows larger, so the fourth trade is no longer sized based on total capital but on what's left.
For example, with a $10,000 account, if the first three trades each used $1,000 long and all stopped out, the account has $7,000 left. Logically, the fourth trade could still use $1,000, but most people only dare to use $500 or less. It's not risk control; it's the feeling that $3,000 has already been lost and can't be lost again. However, the lost $3,000 and the remaining $7,000 are actually the same money, but mental accounting labels them differently: the lost amount is sunk cost, and the remainder is break-even capital. Once labeled, decision-making distorts—positions that should be held are let go, and stop-losses that should be cut are held onto.
The test is simple: look back at your fourth trade after three consecutive losses—was the position size smaller than the previous three? If yes, mental accounting is at work. It doesn't show in trading records but runs in the background, affecting the feel of every order. The real comparison should be between current total capital and the risk of the trade, not how much was lost before.$ETH $BTC $SOL BTC has bottomed out and rebounded in this round, showing obvious consolidation characteristics in its pattern. The price dipped to a low of 79,431, then quickly pulled back above the 80,000 mark; ETH similarly fell below 2,300 before recovering again. Looking at the market, only ZEC shows stronger resistance to decline, slightly retreating with the overall market today, but the weekly chart still maintains an uptrend.
Fundamentally, there is a lack of strong short-term catalysts. Standard Chartered Bank's stablecoin project announcement has been temporarily postponed. Waiting for large-scale institutional funds to enter and take over will still require time.
The core issue lies in trading volume. BTC's single-day turnover is only 16.2 billion, with volume sharply shrinking. This rebound lacks incremental capital inflow; it is mostly internal funds playing back and forth, mutually harvesting.
My thinking is very clear: in the current market, stick to watching more and trading less.
If BTC cannot hold above 80,500 and ETH cannot rise above 2,350, the current stage is a meaningless choppy market, where entering positions easily leads to stop losses and getting hit from both sides.
A low-volume, choppy market is the most patience-draining. At this stage, it is best to remain on the sidelines and patiently wait for a clear trend before taking action. 兄弟们，最近这行情看盘看得想吐吧？大饼（$BTC ）在 80,800 刀附近来回画门，二饼（$ETH ）还在 2,360 刀半死不活，SOL 守着 102 刀上下晃悠。 看一眼涨幅榜，除了偶尔冒出来几个像 ANIME 这样突然爆拉 30% 的妖币，大部分 DeFi、AI 和新币板块都在阴跌回调。群里全在骂没流动性、没叙事。但真相是没钱吗？并不是。钱多得要命，只是玩法彻底变了，散户还在用上轮周期的旧地图找新大陆。 我刚去扒了一圈最新的链上报告和欧易研究院的底层数据，发现三个扎心但能救命的事实：1. 你的交易对手，早就不是“人”了以前大家总骂狗庄画线洗盘，现在跟你博弈的连人都不是。最新机构统计数据显示，目前链上日均交互里，超过 45% 的交易是由非人类主体（AI Agent）发起的。人家毫秒级响应、全天候盯着跨所价差和链上情绪，散户还在看 15 分钟 MACD 金叉死叉、纠结止损设在哪个点位，怎么打得过？ $现在的 AI 甚至已经开始用链上信用评分搞机器之间的无抵押借贷（M2M）了。 2. 华尔街根本不跟你玩“格局”，人家在闷声薅无风险羊毛 别总觉得机构进场是来给散户接盘拉升的。数据显Don't be misled by the "scale illusion": Unpacking the true capital flow behind BTC spot ETFs
When discussing BTC spot ETFs, a concept that is easily confused must be clarified: a reduction in fund size does not equate to a net outflow of capital. This is a basic financial logic, yet it is often drowned out by market sentiment.
When the price of Bitcoin held by the fund falls, even if no investors redeem shares, the total asset size measured in USD will shrink accordingly. Conversely, when the coin price rises, the fund size will be passively pushed up, even if there is little new capital entering during that period. Attributing changes in asset size entirely to institutional buying and selling can easily lead to a grand but unstable false conclusion.
Recent capital flow data has fluctuated repeatedly, and market sentiment is already sensitive. If one shouts "institutional retreat" at the sight of scale decline and praises "giants accumulating" when scale rises, it only leads to passively being led by the numbers and repeatedly tossed around in the noise.
A more rational way to observe is to cross-analyze subscription and redemption data, changes in the fund's Bitcoin holdings, and Bitcoin price on the same dimension. At the very least, one must first distinguish whether the change in scale is due to "money" moving or "price" fluctuating. Only then can one see through the surface and understand the true intentions of institutional capital. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Elon Musk just borrowed 40 billion dollars to buy GPUs, then immediately told the whole world: others can't borrow anymore
His exact words were: More than 200 new cloud providers will face a fish-like death and consolidation, the bond market has almost completely cut off funding for companies without large revenues, SpaceX will not acquire any new cloud providers, it's meaningless.
This statement has two layers of meaning:
One is the truth,
CoreWeave's unsecured bond yield has already reached about 15%,
A company borrowing money at 15% means the market is already pricing it as junk debt.
The other is business: if competitors can't borrow money, they can't buy GPUs; if competitors can't buy GPUs, the computing power stays with those who can borrow. And SpaceX just happens to be investment-grade, with Starlink and launch revenues. $SPCX $SPCX SpaceX secures $40 billion debt financing, with funds specifically allocated for purchasing NVIDIA GPUs. This batch of chips will be delivered gradually starting in the first half of 2027.
This move by Yilong Ma is not just about hoarding computing power. He also highlighted the industry's current state: SpaceX itself has Starlink and launch services generating stable cash flow, which gives it the confidence to secure low-cost funding. In contrast, many small computing power providers that only rent out computing power without a core business backing have seen their financing channels tighten, and a wave of clearances is very likely to follow.
The differentiation in the computing power sector will become increasingly obvious; those relying solely on renting machines for business will face growing pressure.
#SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷 $UNI
Almost sideways, is there an independent buy order emerging in DeFi?
In this morning's spot snapshot, UNI's 24-hour price change was -0.12%, ranging between 6.645—7.04 USDT.
Compared to BTC's pullback, UNI performed more steadily, but the price alone cannot prove a change in the protocol's economic rights. Trading volume, net fees, and token benefit pathways must be verified one by one.
If relative strength is maintained and value capture improves, the revaluation judgment can be raised; if it only temporarily lags and then falls further, it is not advisable to treat the sideways movement as a business inflection point.恐慌蔓延！BTC失守8万大关，FOMC前大资金正在疯狂“提桶跑路”？ 一觉醒来，大饼还是没扛住！BTC在亚洲早盘直接跌破8万美元大关，最低下探至79,280美元，以太坊跌穿2300美元，XRP跌超3%，SOL在100美元边缘疯狂试探。 这波“黑色星期一”级别的跳水，到底是谁在砸盘？专家拆解，核心是宏观避险情绪的集中爆发： 第一，亚洲AI科技股遭血洗。高盛突然将韩国KOSPI指数的12个月目标位下调了25%，直接引发芯片股领跌，亚洲科技市场一片哀嚎。这种风险偏好的急剧降温，瞬间传导到了加密市场。 第二，美联储FOMC会议前的“生死劫”。大资金正在疯狂削减风险敞口。BTSE高管一语道破天机：现在市场关注的根本不是本周加不加息，而是美联储主席沃什在发布会上对12月加息的暗示程度！在油价高企和地缘冲突的加持下，沃什完全有底气继续保持强硬。 第三，关键技术的破位。注意，82,500美元原本是重要支撑位，上周四就已经失守。现在价格被压在这个位置下方，如果短期内不能重新站回去，那么现在的下跌就不是什么“短暂调整”，而是实实在在的趋势转弱。 专家给你最硬的交易策略： 现在去猜底毫无意义，千万不要在宏观Over the weekend, $BTC dipped to 79,840 but then reclaimed above 80,000, yet the trading volume was only half of the 7-day average, which is a typical sign of volume contraction at the bottom.
The Middle East situation has already downgraded to background noise, so don’t treat it as the main logic. I judge that before the interest rate decision settles, there will be low-volume oscillation around 80,000. Hold your spot positions and don’t fuss; those who want to move should wait until after Wednesday.
$BTC is pressed down by three moving averages above; the MA30 is around 82,900, and a rebound to that area will most likely be pushed back. The upper boundary of the range at 87,200 is an even bigger ceiling.
$ZEC shows volume and price not cooperating: it fell from 1,373 down to around 1,200, and volume shrinks on rebounds, with few chasing the rally. The current price of 1,196 is just above the MA20, and the RSI at 47.8 is neither overbought nor strong.
But no matter what, it’s the only one with a positive 7-day gain; this privacy coin is showing some strength against the trend.
$ETH, don’t catch a falling knife near 2,300; wait until the whale liquidation line is hit before considering. That on-chain $397 million long whale added $9.21 million margin last night, pushing the liquidation price from 2,256 down to 2,181. The current price is 2,327, only $146 away from the critical point. #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Unitree Technology 465x PE, focus on three things:
📊 Valuation: PE-TTM 431.99x, PB 87.63x. The market prices it as the "first physical AI/humanoid robot stock," not a traditional manufacturing valuation.
⚠️ Profit: Net profit attributable to parent company 274 million, year-on-year +955.59%, but net profit excluding non-recurring items 244 million, year-on-year -19.34%. The huge increase in net profit attributable to parent is due to a low base effect; the main business profitability still faces pressure.
🤖 Business: In 2025, humanoid robot revenue is 870 million, accounting for 51.1%; quadruped robot 700 million, accounting for 41.1%. But humanoid robots are still mainly for scientific research and education (73.6%), with industry applications only about 9%, large-scale commercialization is still in early stages.
Personally, I think this thing is just another short squeeze; you can short a small position. This 465 PE is just a joke, the valuation is too high, large position shorts 🈳 are not cost-effective $UNITREE #AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI
Why YES — likely beat:*
- *Streak:* Q3 2025 beat by +27% — $2.87 vs $2.26 est, $102.35B vs $99.9B — first $100B+ quarter ever. Beat estimates 12 quarters in a row.
- *Cloud supercycle:* Google Cloud $15.16B Q3 25 -> $24.8B Q2 26 (+82% YoY). Backlog $155B -> $514B. $10B Meta deal alone.
- *Search resilient:* Search $56.57B +14.5% YoY — AI Mode 75M DAUs, query growth up, not cannibalized by ChatGPT.
*Risk:*
Core EPS ex-Anthropic/SpaceX gains is ∼$2.87, not $9.11 headline.$DOGE is bearish. Current price is 0.07686, just slightly above the 24-hour low of 0.0759, and it is expected to break below it soon. Over the day, both longs and shorts liquidated about $160,000 each. Compared to the $210 million open interest, this has almost no impact, and leverage basically remains in the market. There were 95 long liquidations, all small scattered orders; only 27 short liquidations, so the shorts held strong. The price is moving sideways, but open interest exceeds daily trading volume, indicating no new money is coming in. Once the remaining longs see a break below the previous low, stop losses will likely trigger a concentrated sell-off. The largest volume bar on the chart appeared on a bullish candle, indicating some buyers stepped in at that time. However, after that, the highs continued to decline and the price did not reclaim the moving average. That buying only supported the price temporarily and failed to push it higher. Bullish reversal condition: price must reclaim and hold above the 24-hour high of 0.07766, which would invalidate this bearish outlook. I just want to ask: In this market, who the hell is actually making money? 😂
BTC falls, the bulls get stuck; it rebounds, the bears get hit.
ETH falls even harder, bulls hold onto floating losses without daring to move, and many bears open shorts at low levels, feeling uncomfortable as soon as it rebounds.
Looking through the contract data, wow, both bulls and bears are losing, the screen is full of green and red position bars, but I can't tell who the real winner is.
Could it be that the current market is: those chasing the rise get buried, those bottom-fishing get stuck, shorts fear rebounds, and longs hope for a miracle?
The most ridiculous part is, when it falls, you want to add positions; when it rises, you fear missing out. Tossing and turning back and forth for a long time, in the end, you just contribute fees and funding costs to the exchange.
So the question is: Are the market makers making money, the exchanges making money, or are we retail traders just paying tuition to the market?
Brothers, tell me, have you been making profits, stuck, or already numb lately? 🥲
$BTC $ETH 🔥🔥🔥The October FOMC interest rate decision is approaching, and the mainstream market expectation generally leans toward a pause in rate hikes.
The CME FedWatch tool shows only about a 10% chance of a rate hike this time, and most economists also favor the Fed pausing rate hikes. However, the real risk lies in the policy details: previously, more than half of the committee members believed there was still room for one more rate hike this year, and some hawkish officials have taken a tough stance, not ruling out the possibility of dissenting votes. The tone of Waller's speech after the meeting will be the key variable determining market direction.
The market has priced in nearly a 68% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December, making the year-end policy direction the focus of capital competition. On the market front, BTC continues to consolidate and bottom near the 80,000 level. In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations totaling $670 million, with long positions accounting for over 60%. Bulls chasing gains above 80,000 have been repeatedly stopped out; contract open interest continues to rise, with both longs and shorts positioning in advance.
ETH is showing a weak recovery after a decline, with price elasticity greater than BTC and more volatile fluctuations, oscillating narrowly around 2300 awaiting a directional choice.
After the likely pause in rate hikes in October this week, there may be a short-term "bad news fully priced in" pulse rebound. But as long as Waller's speech does not release dovish signals, or even hints at a possible hike in December, BTC's rebound space above 80,000 will quickly be given back. Currently, this is only a post-decline recovery rather than a reversal; it is not advisable to chase gains in trading, and risk control with position management should be prioritized before the decision is announced.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
$BTC $ETH $BTC finally climbed back to 80,000 at noon, with Binance's 12 PM Beijing time candle closing at 80,134. It then touched 80,300 twice but couldn't break through, now hovering around 80,130. The volume in the afternoon has clearly shrunk; the 2 PM hour only saw $25.7 million, less than 40% of the volume at 9 AM.
$ETH is more sluggish, fluctuating around 2,320, with a morning low of 2,293.
Today's main liquidation victim is still Ethereum: TokenPost citing CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, 20 tokens liquidated $97.82 million, with ETH alone at $41.85 million, longs accounting for 73%, and BTC at $33.98 million. The largest single liquidation was a $3.48 million ETH long on Binance, liquidated at 9:38 AM at 2,311.7.
What concerns me more is that Americans aren't buying: just checked Coinbase spot at 80,007, about $120 lower than Binance, and Coinbase's premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days.
On OKX, the ETH long-short account ratio is still 2.52, meaning longs haven't fully exited. Before the US market picks up, I consider this rebound merely a short covering.$BTC In the afternoon, BTC again approached the low level, and I don't believe in this small rebound: 79,221 is the real gate that the bears are targeting
At noon, BTC was reported at $80,117.79, down -0.63% from the opening price of $80,626.30 24 hours ago, with an intraday high-low range of $80,951.57—$79,368.67. After a rapid surge from $84,898 followed by a pullback, I believe the main reason is not a single piece of news, but the realization of profits at high levels combined with forced liquidation of leveraged longs: after breaking short-term support, selling pressure was amplified in a chain reaction. Public news about Bitcoin Lightning Network payment applications, progress on the digital euro, and South Korea's tax deferral are medium- to long-term narratives and have not yet improved short-term risk appetite.
From my bearish perspective, the daily MACD maintains a death cross, with the histogram continuing to weaken; the price is below MA7 $81,555.30 and MA25 $82,743.47, with a net outflow of large orders of about 2.94%. RSI(6) is 30.89, which may trigger a rebound at low levels but is not enough to prove a trend reversal. My clear observation target today is around $79,221: if it continues to be lost, weak volatility may continue to spread; if it recovers above $81,555, beware of a repair caused by short covering.
The above is only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.Today is Monday. Is this BTC drop just a shakeout, or is it not over yet? Whether $BTC can hold around 80,000 might be the key in the next few days!
Last week, after BTC surged, it started to fall back, dropping to around 79,000 over the weekend. Many people began calling for a bottom buy again, but honestly, a bigger drop doesn’t mean it’s the bottom; it still depends on whether there is capital willing to catch the fall.
Looking at ETFs, in the first half of last week, capital inflows were decent, with about $527 million and $525 million flowing in on the 19th and 21st respectively, but on the 22nd there was a sudden net outflow of about $636 million, and on the 23rd another outflow of about $138 million. The earlier buying followed by sudden selling is definitely worth noting.
However, seeing outflows doesn’t mean institutions have all fled. Calculated over the whole week, ETF funds were still net inflows, just noticeably weaker in the latter half.
Personally, I think we shouldn’t rush to guess the bottom now. Focus on two things:
First, can it hold around 80,000? If it holds, BTC still has a chance to rebound; if it repeatedly breaks below, be cautious of another wave of decline.
Second, when will ETF funds start flowing in again? Occasional single-day buys are nothing; whether it can buy continuously is more worth watching.
Also, there’s the Fed’s rate meeting this week, so the market might fluctuate again based on news.
What do you think? Can BTC hold 80,000 this time? Or is the real bottom still to come? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Unrealized loss of 22.78 million but not panicking, what is this big short betting on?
A whale with cumulative profits of 180 million USD and earning 25.22 million USD in 24 hours currently holds three short positions with a combined unrealized loss of 22.78 million USD: BTC down 12.06 million, ETH down 4.76 million, SOL down 5.95 million. On the surface, it looks like a headwind, but a closer look at the positions reveals confidence.
Short 2,637 BTC, nominal 210 million USD, 5x leverage, average price 76,327; short 106,400 ETH, nominal 250 million USD, 5x leverage, average price 2,322; short 720,000 SOL, nominal 73.87 million USD, 7x leverage, average price 94.3. Total nominal position 530 million USD, a solid top-tier short.
The real key is not the unrealized loss, but the liquidation price: BTC around 140,000, ETH 3,838, SOL 316, still far from the current price, making short-term volatility unlikely to trigger liquidation. In other words, he uses low leverage to gain room and unrealized losses to buy time.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
One of the highlights this week: SK Hynix's earnings report
Last quarter's figures were extraordinary, for the same reason: strong AI demand, continuous price increases for HBM, DRAM, and NAND, with Hynix as a core supplier to Nvidia fully benefiting from the boom.
However, after the Q2 earnings release, the stock price plunged sharply, simply because market expectations were too high.
This time, Q3 requires more caution, especially focusing on three aspects:
· Can HBM4 mass production continue to boost profits?
· Will the price increases for memory chips continue, or are they already near the cycle peak?
· How much is Hynix planning to distribute to shareholders?
Hynix is considering dividend payments totaling about 16 trillion won, roughly 80 billion RMB. It previously announced a 40 trillion won share buyback and cancellation plan and intends to use over 50% of free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 for shareholder returns.
If this performance hits a new high, combined with massive dividends and buybacks, it should be able to attract capital inflows again Steady inflow of hidden funds continues, yet BTC, ETH, and SOL prices remain in a sideways consolidation pattern.
$BTC: Single-day net inflow of 258.22 units, with large orders as the main buying force. The market has not shown upward momentum, fluctuating repeatedly around 80,000. Large funds are passively absorbing chips, with no short-term rally action.
$ETH: Net inflow of 4,274.86 units, with a healthy capital structure and large orders following suit; the market mainly moves in tandem with BTC, showing weak ability to form an independent trend.
$SOL: Net inflow of 45,800 units, the strongest absorption among the three, with large orders continuously increasing positions and higher asset elasticity; ongoing attention is needed on the selling pressure disturbance caused by unlocking events.
Currently, the market shows clear divergence: large orders keep buying, but prices have yet to choose a direction.
Capital flow is only an auxiliary analysis reference; inflow does not mean the market will immediately rise. Sideways range consolidation and sweeping orders are normal. $BTC $ETH Approaching the FOMC, although the market prices in no rate hike in October, the focus is not on whether to hike or not, but on the dot plot and Powell's remarks regarding the path of rate cuts.
1. Dot plot: Will the expectation for rate cuts within the year be lowered, and will the option for a December hike be retained? If the number of rate cuts is reduced, US Treasury real yields will rise, putting continued pressure on gold and BTC.
2. Powell's press conference: Focus on two points: 1) how he evaluates the inflation risk brought by oil prices; 2) whether he clearly states "higher rates will be maintained longer." Only by acknowledging that inflation has room to fall can a recovery rally occur.
3. QT stance: Whether there is discussion on changes to the balance sheet reduction pace, as liquidity expectations will directly affect risk assets.
US 10-year Treasury real yield
Rising = bearish for gold and BTC; falling = rebound window opens
Crude oil price
Sustained oil price surge rekindles sticky inflation expectations, making it difficult for the Fed to turn dovish; oil price decline gives gold a chance to break free from suppression by the dollar index
Strength suppresses both assets, weakness favors rebound
BTC: 80,000 level defense line
Holding means a consolidation pattern; a decisive break down means weakening trend, prioritize risk reduction.
Gold: short-term support at 4000-4020, strong support at 3900
1. BTC spot ETF fund flows: continuous large outflows indicate institutional risk aversion; inflows are a positive for rebound
2. Futures leverage positions: whether the concentrated stop-loss and liquidation wave of longs has ended
3. Middle East situation: escalation directly pushes oil prices up, indirectly bearish for gold (inflation logic backlash), not a traditional bullish factor. Leave your views #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
"Middle East Oil Tanker Resumption: Why Does International Crude Oil Remain High?"
Oil tankers on major Middle East routes have resumed sailing, and many expected international crude oil prices to plunge immediately, but the market remains stable at high levels.
The news is one thing; the actual delivery of bulk spot cargo to ports and storage still requires a shipping period of thirty to forty-five days. Marine insurance and war risk surcharges have not immediately dropped to zero and are still included in freight costs at high-risk rates.
Major refineries, preparing for winter heating, have already locked in huge advance payments through high-priced long-term spot contracts signed during the panic period. Spot traders will never dump prices low at the docks. $BTC $FIL FIL has been struggling at the bottom for a long time. The root cause is not that the project has made no progress, but the valuation paradox inherent to service tokens:
Infrastructure is continuously iterating, paid services are gradually being implemented, but customers are accustomed to paying with fiat currency, and service providers mostly cash out tokens immediately. Coupled with linear inflation, exchanges holding massive spot chips, and long-term crowded longs, it is difficult for positive factors to translate into sustained buying pressure.
It won't easily go to zero; the network is transitioning from virtual computing power to real paid storage;
But to break out into an independent major rally, the conditions are very stringent: a FIL settlement closed loop must be formed, continuous token withdrawals to shrink circulating supply, combined with capital rotation in a bull market.
For a long time to come, it is highly likely to remain a range-bound bottoming and repeated tug-of-war pattern, with the greatest cost being time and mindset.