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#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the FOMC (October 27–28) is about 90% likely to hold rates steady, so the decision itself is basically a known factor.
The real variable is not whether to raise rates, but the wording of the statement and the press conference by Waller: inflation remains high, and the Federal Reserve must convince the market that the “pause in October” does not mean “tightening is over,” while maintaining the credibility of a rate hike window in December.
For risk assets, the decision is already priced in, but the tail risk of communication missteps is not fully priced.
If the market interprets the statement as “December might not move either,” the repricing of rate expectations will first impact U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, then transmit to tech stocks and crypto assets;
Conversely, if the December expectations are successfully maintained, the short term might actually see a “boot dropping” window.
The focus is on Waller’s words, not the rate numbers. The decision is a known factor; communication is the source of volatility. @OKX星球 @OKX 产品精选 $BTC #Can SanDisk's storage business sustain its high growth?
Old Mo straightforwardly says: The volume certainty is very strong, but the price elasticity is locked by long-term contracts.
Supporting the growth is the NBM long-term contract. Eight agreements lock in a guaranteed minimum revenue of $93.9 billion, covering more than half of the shipments through 2027, with an 80% gross margin guaranteed by a floor price. As long as AI inference demand for flash memory doesn't collapse, this base is basically stable.
But the cracks are here too. The long-term contracts lock both volume and price, so if the spot price continues to surge, SanDisk won't benefit from excess profits. Coupled with market concerns about the cycle peaking and sentiment pressure from players like Changxin, the stock price is unlikely to break out of a pure cyclical steep rise in the short term.
Old Mo summarizes: SanDisk is shifting from a "pure cyclical game" to "cash flow pricing." There is a solid safety cushion on the downside, but don't expect another crazy surge in the short term. At this position, patiently waiting for a pullback and stabilization is much safer than chasing highs.
What do you think about SanDisk's long-term contract model? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK海力士Q3财报前瞻简析（配图话题：HBM4能不能提振盈利）
In short: The main profit driver in Q3 is still HBM3E; HBM4's contribution this quarter is limited, serving more as a growth engine for Q4 and next year; Q3 performance flexibility comes from general DRAM/NAND price increases plus fulfillment of existing HBM long-term contracts.
Market poll in the chart shows 83% betting Yes (earnings beat expectations), 18% betting No, reflecting a generally optimistic consensus among investors.
✅ Positive factors (supporting profits, likely to exceed expectations):
1. Traditional storage price increase benefits realized
TrendForce estimates Q3 DRAM contract prices up 13%~18% QoQ, NAND up 10%~15% QoQ; AI inference drives stronger eSSD demand, with ordinary server and PC storage prices rising simultaneously, representing confirmed revenue growth in Q3 without waiting for HBM4 volume ramp-up.
2. HBM3E remains a cash cow
HBM long-term contracts lock prices and volumes, with high unit prices and very high gross margins; SK Hynix still leads in HBM market share, and HBM3E continues stable shipments in Q3, forming the profit base.
3. HBM4 yield has met standards but is in early ramp-up
HBM4 began small-batch sample deliveries in Q2, with yields approaching the mature HBM3E level; Exchange wallet $BTC has recently surged by 70,000 coins. Are the spot whales about to dump?
Many people were scared by this chart showing a large inflow of BTC into exchanges recently.
In less than a month, over 70,000 BTC spot coins flowed in, coinciding with BTC fluctuating and declining above 80,000. Could a major correction really be starting?
Today, I saw more detailed data from other bloggers (Chart 2).
The light-colored area represents the cumulative inflow of BTC by retail investors into exchanges over the past 30 days.
The dark blue area shows the data of whale inflows of BTC into exchanges.
It’s clear that retail investors have been continuously depositing coins into exchanges this past month.
However, the amount of whale inflows is shrinking and decreasing.
In other words, this wave of large inflows into exchanges is mostly driven by retail investors, not whales.
Whales have not been transferring BTC from cold wallets to exchanges in bulk, preparing for spot selling.
Therefore, the main selling pressure causing the recent decline likely comes from retail investors transferring spot coins to sell + contract leverage stop-loss orders, not whales selling spot.
As long as this situation continues, it’s unlikely to see a spot crash with no support and a cliff-like plunge.
Thus, this ongoing BTC decline looks more like a new round of chip swapping, with retail investors taking profits and whales remaining restrained and accumulating.
But this only indicates that the risk of whales chain-selling spot coins is currently low, temporarily ruling out the worst-case scenario of a panic spot sell-off.
For the market to rebound, signals of reduced retail selling pressure and whales withdrawing coins to accumulate are still needed. On October 27, the $BTC 80,000 level was repeatedly contested. What's truly interesting is the position divergence:
The long position ratio across all market accounts is 69.5%, the long position ratio among large accounts is 70.5%, and the long position ratio held by large accounts is 66.0%!
But the smart money's long position ratio is only 21.7%, with a buy ratio of 49.3%!
To put it plainly: retail investors have a high long position ratio, but smart money is not following.
For long entry recommendations, place orders around 78,700. The liquidation intensity is nearly 900 million dollars. If you get a chance to catch it in the short term, there will be a rebound. #Anthropic officially files for IPO, potentially setting a new valuation record
"Anthropic IPO Valuation Breaks Records"
Anthropic has officially submitted its IPO application, aiming to break valuation records.
On the surface, the Claude model's usage is surging, with Amazon and Google each investing over ten billion dollars. However, behind closed doors, the costs of computing power, cutting-edge chips, and cloud cluster rentals are consuming huge amounts of cash every quarter. Subscription revenue alone at this stage is far from sufficient.
The management has chosen to rush to the public market primarily to replenish R&D resources. The most critical upcoming focus will be the quarterly gross profit and computing power expenses disclosed in the first public prospectus. $ANTHROPIC officially files for IPOBTC holds at 80,000, better not chase before the FOMC night.
OKX current price is about 80,006, 24h high 80,850, low 79,378, with a fluctuation of less than a thousand points.
This morning, the liquidation zone reported about $174 million liquidated across the network in 24h, with long positions accounting for about 60.7%.
Farside: US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $636 million on 10/22, and another outflow of about $138 million on 10/23; the FOMC meeting is today and tomorrow.
I think this is a typical pre-meeting low-volume stalemate, not a breakout signal.
Institutions just had outflows, the price is grinding near 80,000, chasing hard has an average success rate.
What I will do: observe and not chase. Wait for a firm hold and recovery above 80,850; if it breaks below 79,300, this 80,000 defense is considered failed.
Are you more worried about a dump after the meeting, or will you wait for the low volume to end before making a move?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek #MiddleEastOilTransportResumesWhyAreOilPricesStillHigh?Today's assessment: There are two developments worth noting today: tokenized US stocks now support X Layer deposits and withdrawals, and the prediction market has also secured more cooperation with traditional institutions. My judgment on the practical application of X Layer has become more optimistic, but currently, no new OKB staking demand has been confirmed. ETF data is also incomplete, so it's too early to conclude whether institutional buying has resumed. 1. ETF: Data is incomplete, so no judgment on capital inflow yet. As of October 26, spot ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) data has not been fully collected; major funds like IBIT, FBTC, and ETHA are still missing data. Previously on the 23rd, BTC had a net outflow of $137.9 million, ETH saw a slight inflow; SOL data for that day was also incomplete. It is still insufficient to determine whether institutional buying of these three asset types has strengthened. 2. Tokenized US stocks are being opened in batches, with X Layer handling asset transfers. Starting October 26, the first batch of tokenized stocks such as xMARA, xMCD, and xMRK are entering the OKX spot market as planned, supporting deposits and withdrawals via X Layer. This brings concrete asset usage scenarios to X Layer. Spot matching is completed on OKX, while X Layer handles deposit, withdrawal, and on-chain transfer demands. This business progress is noteworthy, but it has not yet been confirmed that these spot trades must stake OKB or that trading fees will flow back to OKB. Exchange OS is still in public beta; no new announcements on external deployment or specific staking rules have been made, and the originally planned third-quarter deployment is still marked as "coming soon". The hottest coin today is $Q (Quack AI), ranked first in CoinGecko's hot search. As of 10:02 Beijing time, Q is priced at $0.1975, up 254% in 24h, with a trading volume of about $270 million and a market cap reaching approximately $930 million. It just hit a new all-time high of 0.2184 at 08:36 this morning.
This round of Q has been very volatile: after a surge in mid-October, it dropped 57% over six days until the 25th, then yesterday it quickly bounced back from around 0.057. So far, no new official positive news from the project team has been found; the narrative remains AI Agent payments (x402 gas-free signature payments).
My view: this kind of movement looks more like a battle between capital and contracts rather than a fundamental change. The trading volume is nearly 30% of the market cap, indicating very high turnover; about 241 million tokens will unlock on November 2. Rather than chasing the rally, it's better to understand the rhythm. I will focus on the support after pullbacks and the changes in holdings before and after the unlock.This week's tech stock earnings reports are a major test; the market is no longer focused on profits but mainly on future expenditures. ANT will be listed in 2 weeks. $BTC strong demand + strong absorption, the only drawback is not during the US market hours, but I think it's very, very good. I added to my position at 79600 📅 October 27, 2026 · On the eve of the Federal Reserve decision
🚨 The FOMC meeting opens today,
BTC is currently at $80,033, down 0.74% in 24 hours, ETH down 1.49%, SOL down 1.38%. In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidation reached $135 million, with long positions accounting for $91.74 million — leveraged longs are rushing to exit ahead of the Fed decision. Market expectations for a rate cut have been slashed to less than 10%, making a "no change" almost a sure bet; the real variable is every word from Waller at the press conference.
Strategy has paused BTC purchases for the first time in five weeks, with $772 million flowing out of US spot ETFs in two days. The two most stable marginal buyers have both stopped.
The 80,000 level was lost before the decision; the real direction will have to wait for the press conference early Thursday Beijing time. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$IRYS large buy cost decreases, sell cost increases. Simulated slippage for 100k scale buy/sell changes from 1.70%/1.38% to 1.35%/1.55%. The rising side shows reduced volume, the falling side remains stable.
$DOOD large buy cost increases, small buy cost almost unchanged. Simulated 100k scale buy slippage rises from 1.12% to 1.33%. 10k buy remains about 0.16%. When cost worsens, adjust order size, not directional view.
$CAP slippage is higher for the same buy amount. Simulated 10k scale buy/sell slippage is 0.23%/0.16%, 100k is 1.28%/0.56%. Large orders on the expensive side need to be split.Last night, the OCC issued the final license to Ripple's National Trust Bank. This is not a commercial bank that can accept deposits and make loans, but a federally regulated trust bank: managing RLUSD reserves, acting as collateral trustee, and providing institutional digital asset custody. The official press release states that RLUSD has a market value of about $2.5 billion, and the issuance side is still managed by Standard Custody, regulated by the State of New York. CoinGecko spot XRP is about $1.30 (snapshot around 09:58 Beijing time).
It is more likely a compliance foundation being completed, not an immediate doubling of payment volume. The opposing view will focus on the trust bank not accepting deposits or making loans, and the license itself does not bring transaction fees. But once the federal custody shell is established, institutions will have one less regulatory identity question when purchasing.
Let's first observe the three weeks after opening: whether the custody client list publicly shows a few verifiable names. If the list is blank, or RLUSD's market value remains almost unchanged compared to before opening, then this is just a regulatory progress update, not a sign that funds have already entered on a large scale.
$XRP
#Ripple #TrustBank Bitcoin is currently stuck at 79,000, just one step away from 80,000, but that step just can't be crossed. Every time the price tries to push up, the trading volume doesn't keep up; the momentum to break through is clearly insufficient.
There's a detail on-chain: whales have been accumulating coins offline recently, not dumping them on exchanges, so selling pressure is indeed low. But the problem is that the existing chips are just being exchanged back and forth among insiders. No matter how much turnover there is, it can't push a breakthrough because no new money is coming in. An integer barrier like 80,000 can't be sustained by old money just passing coins around.
ETFs saw a net outflow of $630 million on Thursday alone, and during this week only BlackRock is still supporting net inflows—one player can't carry the whole load. This is the most direct signal from the demand side, indicating that incremental funds are on the sidelines.
Adding to that, the Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady on interest rates, and no one wants to add positions before the decision is announced. With both macro and capital flows weak, I don't see 80,000 being reached in the short term.
If a real bullish turn is to happen, it's better to wait until the interest rate decision is out and ETFs resume net inflows. Chasing longs at this level isn't cost-effective.
The range between 79,000 and 80,000 will likely keep grinding back and forth for a while; this kind of low-volume sideways movement is very frustrating. If it breaks below 77,000 afterward, the downward momentum will accelerate—don't rush to bottom-fish.Bitcoin is repeatedly grinding around 79,000, unable to break through 80,000, and the volume for the breakout is thinning day by day.
On-chain whales are hoarding coins offline, not dumping them on exchanges, so selling pressure isn't significant. However, the existing turnover can't push out a breakthrough; what's missing is actual buying from new money entering the market.
ETFs saw a net outflow of 630 million USD on Thursday alone, with BlackRock being the only one supporting net inflows throughout the week.
Before the Fed's interest rate decision is finalized, 80,000 won't hold. If a real bullish reversal is to happen, wait until both of these signals change.After $BTC fell below $80,000, its rebound has struggled to hold — the real suspense is not about where the bottom is, but whether the market can still absorb the shock amid the triple macro variables converging this Wednesday. The Federal Reserve rate decision, US GDP, and PCE data will all be released intensively in the same week. This "policy + growth + inflation" triple-front window is rare, and the longer volatility is suppressed, the more intense its release will be. First, looking at $BTC itself: the current price is about $80,368, with short-term key support at $78,670, and a clear short liquidation zone near $85,000 above. This means that for the price to break upward, it must first clear this liquidity; but if the $80,000 integer level fails to hold, the path to retest $78,670 will become smoother. I tend to be cautious: not bearish, but acknowledging that neither bulls nor bears currently have enough chips to set the tone, and the gain or loss of $80,000 carries more information than any prediction. The weakness of $ETH is even more worrisome. The current price is about $2,337, with key resistance at $2,420 and notable support at $2,169 below. As a high-beta asset, $ETH did not rebound first when $BTC stabilized, indicating that funds have not truly returned to the front end of the risk curve, so bottom-fishing now is not cost-effective. $SOL is currently about $102, with $100 as a psychological defense line. Its logic is straightforward: if $BTC continuesSouth Korea is once again at a critical point regarding the taxation of crypto asset gains.
The current trend is that the Blue House is inclined to postpone the 22% crypto income tax for the fourth time. In other words, this tax, which was originally set to be implemented, will most likely be delayed further. At the same time, discussions are ongoing about whether exchanges should bear an additional educational tax burden.
There are two key points. First, the tax rate is not low—22% applies to individual gains from transferring crypto assets; once implemented, it will change local investors' holding and reporting habits. Second, this is already the fourth postponement, and the repeated delays themselves indicate significant resistance to implementation: regulators want to collect the tax but fear withdrawing liquidity during sensitive market periods.
For $BTC, the significance lies mainly in two aspects. South Korea is one of the most active retail trading markets globally, and the timing of the tax system will directly affect the flow of local funds. Delaying implementation removes a short-term forced selling reason; however, the policy's repeated wavering creates uncertainty, causing some funds to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Conversely, if the tax is eventually confirmed, concentrated liquidation before reporting must be guarded against.
The next things to watch are: when the final decision will be announced, whether the 22% tax rate will be adjusted, and whether the new burden on trading platforms will be passed on to user fees. Also, whether the local price premium in South Korea is abnormally amplified, as that usually signals the most direct sentiment of local funds. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ When I look at this message, the key point is not the "sell-off wave," but that unrealized gains might be treated differently. The Netherlands plans to vote in November: according to the current proposal, capital gains tax will be levied on stocks and other assets when sold starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. Industry organizations warn this could trigger sell-offs.
📌 Here's a concept breakdown for newcomers: unrealized gains are the paper profits from assets not yet sold. Taking 2028 as an example, if the proposal passes, stocks can be taxed upon sale, but crypto assets might be taxed even if not sold. Having profits on paper does not mean having cash on hand to pay taxes.
I think this is a potential negative: tax differences may affect asset choices, and annual tax payments also increase cash flow pressure. But beginners tend to interpret "possible sell-off" as "inevitable price drop." I will watch the voting results closely and not take industry warnings as direct market conclusions.Volatility may increase before the FOMC on October 28, and high leverage is very susceptible to being liquidated in the two-way squeeze. Currently, BTC shorts dominate but are not extreme, ETH longs have not been cleared but the order flow is turning short, a structural combination more likely to lead to consolidation before the FOMC rather than a one-sided breakout. This makes BTC's downside vulnerability relatively higher. Coupled with the approaching Federal Reserve FOMC on October 28, the risk-reward ratio for directional one-sided bets is not favorable. The crypto market is under transmission pressure from cross-asset sell-offs. The US September CPI rose to 3.7%, Brent crude oil broke through $115, fueling reflation concerns, combined with a pullback in the US stock AI sector, overall risk appetite is contracting. Uncertainty in the interest rate path will continue to suppress the valuation recovery space for risk assets.
BTC: 80000 has shifted from support to a "meat grinder" of repeated battles between bulls and bears. Against the backdrop of four consecutive daily declines and three consecutive weekly declines, the gain or loss of this level will determine the short-term direction. The seven-stage adjustment on the 4-hour level has been completed, with clear divergence between the exit and entry phases, indicating that the technical conditions for the end of the adjustment are accumulating but not yet confirmed—the confirmation signal is a structural reversal after a retest without breaking the previous low. On the daily level, BTC has been in a descending channel since the high of 87385 on September 21. It is still locked in a tug-of-war around 80000. Bulls have not been squeezed to an extreme, and the fuel for shorts to continue forcing down is also limited. This "shorts dominate but not extreme" structure supports the judgment of oscillating bottoming rather than a one-sided continued decline.
Support: 79500-80000, 78600-79300
Resistance: 80500-81000, 81350, 82000
ETH: RSI is near oversold, the risk-reward ratio for chasing shorts at the current position is not ideal, but oversold itself is not a reason to go long; structural signals need to be awaited. Since the early October high around 2800, ETH has been in a descending channel with both highs and lows continuously moving down. The daily chart has broken below the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since the June low, meaning the previously supportive rebound structure has been substantially damaged. On the 4-hour level, after being blocked in the 2470–2500 supply zone, ETH fell again, with the short structure resonating across multiple time frames. The MACD histogram is negative, short momentum continues without signs of a reversal crossover; the 12-hour chart has maintained five candles with upper and lower shadows, unable to rebound or break down to accelerate. This balance may be broken around the meeting on the 28th. Compared to BTC, ETH still has many longs that have not surrendered internally; against the backdrop of continued price weakness, these positions constitute potential "downside catalysts"—each rebound may become an opportunity for longs to reduce positions and exit.
Support: 2280-2300, 2250-2270
Resistance: 2340-2360, 2374, 2400$UNI This trade was mentioned before, Target 1 reached 😎
Yesterday (10-26) at 18:00 I wrote the plan: The 7.00 line was tested five or six times before breaking through with volume, turning resistance into support, so wait for a pullback to 6.99–7.02 to go long, stop loss at 6.88, Target 1 at 7.20, Target 2 at 7.30.
Actual movement:
Around 18:15 it pulled back into the entry zone, then consolidated all night. After 21:00 the lowest dropped to 6.928, still 0.05 above stop loss. Honestly, it was a bit uncomfortable then, but the structure held, it didn’t fall back below the breakout candle.
At 08:30 this morning it directly surged up, reaching a high of 7.208, Target 1 at 7.20 achieved.
Based on the entry midpoint 7.005, reaching Target 1 is +2.8%. Target 2 at 7.30 hasn’t been reached yet, currently around 7.12, half of the position’s stop loss has been raised to cost as planned, holding without worry.
The key to this trade is one sentence: after the breakout, the pullback not breaking support confirms it. Those few hours in between really tested patience.
What do you think about UNI possibly reaching 7.30 next?
Past performance does not indicate future results, DYOR
#UNI #ContractReview #DeFiI'm pretty sure that Google will beat its quarterly earnings, it projects toward that based on the data.In the futures market, it's not uncommon to be forced to reduce positions due to insufficient margin despite being profitable on paper. When I see this news from the Netherlands, my first thought is about cash flow rather than market direction.
The Netherlands plans to vote in November: under the current proposal, stocks, bonds, and options would be subject to capital gains tax upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange might still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. Industry groups warn this could trigger sell-offs.
I judge this to be somewhat negative for local holders, but it's too early to push this into a global sell-off wave. If implemented, paper gains could bring cash tax payment pressure. Compared to stocks, crypto assets would have less room for deferred taxation; however, gold and foreign exchange are also affected, so it's not targeting only the crypto sector. Are there friends who have transitioned from traditional markets? Do you think this difference will prompt local investors to switch assets, or will it mainly increase cash management difficulties? The most fragile link for ETH is actually not the price, but the thinning buying confidence. - Can the 618 level still hold this time? That high-volume bearish candle over the weekend felt a bit stifling to me. ETH can't even reclaim the ma10, and the 2300-2400 range, which used to seem like a support zone, now feels deserted. Bulls look like they're leaning on the railing going down the stairs, each step more unstable than the last. This isn't just a simple drop; fewer people are willing to buy into the decline✨ What I'm watching isn't a specific price point itself, but the rhythm. The price can't hold above the short-term moving average, and the volume surge can't be sustained, indicating the rebound's strength is quickly exhausted. This structure is closer to a divergence phase within a trend—not a full distribution yet, but no longer a start. To move up, it needs to first show volume contraction with a halt in decline, then volume expansion to reclaim key levels; if it can't hold around 2227, sentiment could easily shift from cautious observation to forced selling. The US stock market was even more interesting that day: it surged early but gave all gains back after the open. On the surface, it looks weak, but what I read is that the decline isn't over yet, missing a volume-backed long lower shadow to close it out. Its risk appetite is connected with crypto: until the stock market clears out, BTC and ETH rebounds are easily suppressed by selling pressure, and altcoins are even worse—funds only dare to short-term trade, not hold long. There is also a bullish path: if a volume-backed long lower shadow appears near 2227 and then reclaims ma10, it means panic selling has been absorbed, giving ETH a chance to help BTC repair sentiment together. But the risk is that support in the 2300-2400 range has already thinned; once 2227 breaks, the next phase may be an accelerated search for support rather than a gentle bottoming.After $1.3 billion liquidations, BTC did not reclaim 80,000, but the real withdrawn funds are not in the contracts
On the eve of the FOMC, BTC touched 80,000 twice intraday but failed to hold, closing at $79,841, with about $1.3 billion worth of positions liquidated across the network in 24 hours. Leverage was cleared in one round, but spot buying did not follow.
$BTC around 79,800—80,200. Weekly ETF net inflow is $301 million, but October cumulative is still a net outflow of $314 million; about $770 million flowed out from the 22nd to 23rd, with 2,123 BTC (about $169 million) withdrawn in a single day. 80,000 is a psychological anchor; reclaiming 81,000 is needed to stop the bleeding.
$ETH around 2,305—2,312. October ETF net outflow is about $1.08 billion, with BlackRock ETHA accounting for 93%. But staking volume hit a record 43.8 million tokens, accounting for 33% of supply; ETFs are withdrawing while on-chain is locking, two groups pricing on different time scales.
$SOL around 100.3. SOL ETF weekly outflow is $17.3 million, negative for three consecutive weeks, ending the previous 14 weeks of inflows. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, but buyers are temporarily absent.
In short: liquidations clear leverage, ETFs withdraw positions, but ETH staking is locked and BTC weekly remains positive. For these three coins, the money hasn’t disappeared; it’s just waiting in different places, waiting for the FOMC to give a reason.
For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve hasn't finished its October meeting yet, but Wall Street has already started betting on a rate hike in December. $BTC trying to rebound this time might not be that simple.
① First, look at market expectations
Reuters surveyed 100 economists; 94 believe there won't be a rate hike in October, but all 100 expect a hike in December.
In other words, the market's real concern isn't this week, but what's coming later.
② Why might BTC not necessarily rise?
Everyone basically expected no rate hike in October.
How much surprise can there be when a message that's already priced in by the market is announced?
BTC is still fluctuating around $80,000, and funds are clearly not that enthusiastic.
③ The real trouble is inflation
US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, and with recent high oil prices, it's not easy for the Fed to ease up.
If on the 28th they continue to send hawkish signals, US Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen again, and BTC will likely face pressure.
④ What to watch next?
Mainly focus on three things:
▪ Whether the Fed changes its December policy expectations
▪ How US Treasury yields and the dollar react
▪ Whether BTC can firmly hold above $82,000 again
If the December rate hike expectations cool down significantly and BTC sees sustained buying, the outlook will turn optimistic.
Conversely, if policy remains hawkish and $80,000 can't hold, then be prepared for further downside testing.
What might truly influence the market going forward could be the Fed's upcoming statements. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SNDK has dropped sharply this round, and the upcoming earnings report might be the key to deciding the direction.
At the beginning of October, it was still above $1600, but now it has fallen back to around $1255, dropping more than 20% in just a few weeks.
However, I think this adjustment is not entirely due to fundamental problems; it's more because the previous rise was too steep, and the market is starting to worry about how long the high growth in AI storage can continue.
For the earnings report on October 29, I mainly focus on two things:
First, whether NAND flash prices and data center SSD demand can continue to support profits.
Second, whether the guidance for the next quarter can once again exceed expectations.
In terms of price movement, I pay close attention to the support around $1230, with $1300 as the first resistance, and only a breakthrough above $1380 can reverse the recent weakness.
Personally, I lean towards the earnings having a chance to beat expectations, but the stock price may not immediately take off.
If the earnings are good but the stock price continues to fall, then be cautious that the market is still digesting the previous high valuation.
Conversely, if the positive news leads to volume backing and the price returns above $1300, I would be more inclined to believe this adjustment is coming to an end.
SNDK now does not lack growth stories; what it lacks is an earnings report that gives investors a reason to buy back in.$xUSAR 🔥 USAR latest short interest: approximately 51.5M shares
Nasdaq officially released the semi-monthly short-interest report as of the October 15 settlement date today, October 26 at 4:05 PM ET. The updated USAR data now shows about 51.5 million shares short, roughly 3.5 days to cover.
Previous periods were:
9/15: 39.05M
9/30: 45.168M
10/15: ≈51.5M
This means the short position increased by about 6.33 million shares over two weeks, roughly +14%; starting from 30.78M at the end of August, it has increased about 67% in one and a half months. This is a clear and sustained increase in shorting.
In other words, during the first half of October, as the stock price dropped steadily from around 14 to near $11, shorts were not covering to take profits but were continuing to add positions.
Stock price hits new lows + short interest hits new highs.
This creates a dual effect:
On one hand, it indicates that institutional/professional shorts remained very bearish as of October 15 and have not "fully covered" yet.
On the other hand, if a strong enough catalyst emerges later, the 51.5M shares of short covering demand could amplify the upward momentum #ENSv2 activation proposal passed, I am willing to wait for user data before drawing conclusions
The ENSv2 activation proposal was voted through on October 25 and is still pending execution. The management flexibility brought by the upgrade interests me, but the version number itself makes it difficult for me to form a valuation judgment. What I want to know more is whether the user migration is smooth, whether registration and renewal have improved, and whether developers are willing to integrate. Domain name services ultimately rely on sustained usage to establish value. If after the upgrade the community discussion is just livelier but income and usage do not keep up, my judgment of it will not improve much either. 📉 After the midterm elections, will BTC experience a deep pullback again?
Reviewing the price movements after the last two midterm elections:
▪️ In the post-2018 election phase, BTC's maximum drawdown was about -50%
▪️ In the post-2022 election phase, BTC's maximum drawdown was about -25%
The next event is on November 3rd. History won't repeat exactly, but deep corrections occurred after both elections, which is a pattern worth noting. Is it a coincidence, or a regular shift in risk appetite of funds after elections? Will a similar scenario play out again this time?
❗This is only a compilation of publicly available historical data and does not constitute any trading advice. To pour some cold water first, profiting from a short position cannot directly prove that the price will continue to fall afterward. Core Trader 57 has this time closed about 10% of his 7x leveraged BTC short position, realizing a profit of $12,528.83. I am bearish, but this operation makes me more concerned about why he took partial profits first instead of fully endorsing the remaining position's direction.
I have two reasons. The average entry price was $83,032.1, and the closing price was $80,221.047, a price difference of about 3.39%, indicating the profit came from a segment of the decline that has already occurred; betting on this direction only now does not give you his cost advantage. Looking at the action, closing only about 10% shows he realized some profit but is insufficient to prove he is judging a market reversal. Based on this closing ratio, most of the short position remains; if the price rebounds, the remaining position will still give back unrealized gains. I speculate that the most uncomfortable people might be those who chased shorts after seeing the profit screenshot and are reluctant to admit they were wrong.
Of course, he might have taken profits too early; if the price continues to fall later, keeping most of the short position makes sense. I am currently unwilling to treat this partial profit-taking as evidence of increased bearishness; if the price continues to decline and he continues to take profits in batches, I will raise my evaluation of this exit rhythm. I will next watch the coordination between position reductions and price, first distinguishing between "having made money" and "being able to make money next."$BTC
Checked this morning, 80138, still hanging above 80,000. Last week when it was stuck at 85,000, a bunch of people were shouting new highs, and it's only been a few days.
Two things came together. MARA apparently sold about 1,000 BTC last night, over 80 million USD, miners selling coins at the 80,000 level, this smell is familiar to me. Santiment said recently 30,000 Bitcoin wallets have exited, retail investors are also pulling out.
Miners dumping, retail running, this combination usually means the phase bottom is not far away. But how "not far" is, I dare not say for sure. Anyway, at this level I won't chase shorts, miners have started unloading, chasing shorts is easy to get buried the night before the bottom.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Last year at the same time, the loss per share was $7.47, today it's only a loss of $0.21
Boeing is releasing Q3 results before the market opens this morning
Expected revenue is about $24.5 billion, up 5.4% year-over-year
The biggest focus is not how much loss is reduced, but whether free cash flow can turn positive
The market expects Q3 free cash flow to be $1–2 billion, while last year it was still a net outflow
Q2 already turned positive with $631 million, delivering 171 aircraft, up 14% year-over-year
Backlog is a record $715 billion, with over 6,200 aircraft waiting for delivery
But don't get carried away by the "97% narrowing"
Only exceeded expectations once in the past four quarters, and Q2 was still $0.42 below expectations
Stock price is $187.78, below the 50-day moving average of $200.75 and the 200-day moving average of $215.14
Underperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 27 percentage points over 52 weeks
My view: Orders are the real foundation, cash flow is the real test, the earnings report is about whether the positive turnaround can be realized
Failure points: free cash flow does not turn positive, or management lowers delivery guidance, then this recovery narrative is invalid
Which side are you on?
Turn positive on cash flow and move on, or take another loss and admit defeat?
$BA $RTX $XLI
#Boeing #EarningsReport#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？
Microsoft will release its FY2027 Q1 earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 28. The market expects revenue of about $90.6 billion and EPS around $4.71.
My prediction is: both revenue and EPS have a chance to slightly exceed expectations, with revenue roughly between $90.8 billion and $91.5 billion, and EPS about $4.75 to $4.90. Here's why:
First, Azure is the key to revenue beating expectations.
Last quarter, Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, up 27% year-over-year, with Azure and other cloud services growing 43%. The company’s Q1 guidance expects Azure to grow about 45% at constant currency.
If Azure can achieve 46% or even higher growth, surpassing the company’s revenue guidance ceiling of $90.95 billion won’t be difficult. Commercial remaining performance obligations have reached $678 billion, up 84% year-over-year, indicating strong orders and future revenue backlog.
Second, Copilot and Microsoft 365 will improve revenue quality.
Microsoft 365 commercial cloud grew about 16% last quarter, and Copilot paid users have already exceeded 30 million.
Even if AI hasn’t yet fully converted into high profits, subscription contracts and enterprise customer stickiness already support growth. Microsoft is not solely reliant on advertising or consumer electronics.
This is my personal analysis and not investment advice.🫣 $MSFT After dropping 36% in three weeks, a $40 billion 2027 guidance led Celestica to bounce back 16% in after-hours trading, but I won't chase this gap up.
Here's what I see: $CLS Q3 revenue was $5.83 billion, up 83% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of 3.30, beating the expected 2.99.
The 2027 initial guidance shows revenue of $40 billion and EPS of 21.50, both above the expected $36.07 billion and 19.70; however, the full-year free cash flow guidance was lowered from $600 million to $460 million.
Regular session closed at 246.65, down 5.14%, with volume about 2.7 times the 50-day average, just $2 above the 52-week low of 244.51.
After-hours price is around 287, still well below the 50-day moving average of 327.
The earnings aren't bad; what's bad is the market's confidence in mega-cap AI spending; the customers are just a few, and no matter how good the guidance looks, the spending is still from others' budgets.
The 16% after-hours move is on thin volume; the real test will be the conference call at 8 PM Shanghai time tonight and the analyst day.
I'm watching but not chasing; won't touch it until it holds above 273 (the high on 10/26); if it falls below 244.51, this rebound logic fails.
Is $40 billion ironclad proof of the AI supercycle, or the last beautiful order before mega-cap budgets peak?
$CLS $NVDA $META
#AI降速争议未退，算力投入继续加码 "76% Betting on Exceeding Expectations, But It's Hard to Play an Open Hand"
SanDisk reported after the U.S. market close on October 29. In the prediction market, 76% of the funds bet on its earnings exceeding expectations. The surface logic is straightforward: AI data center demand is still expanding, NAND prices are rising, and the company guided revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion.
But this 76% ratio indicates that expectations are already maxed out, and the cards are almost an open hand. The market not only looks at how much was sold last quarter but also whether the guidance for the next quarter can continue to explode. The tech earnings season has many examples: Western Digital beat expectations and had decent guidance, yet its stock price still fell. As long as SanDisk's guidance hints at a peak in profit margins or a slowdown in NAND price increases, this 76% of funds could quickly turn into the main force selling off, and a stampede could happen at any time.
Semiconductors are the global tech stock barometer, and this earnings report has a very direct impact. If it beats expectations and the market withstands selling pressure, tech sentiment can stabilize, and BTC can breathe easier; if earnings are outstanding but the stock price is crushed, it means Wall Street has changed its valuation logic for AI hardware, BTC liquidity will be drained, and selling pressure above will be heavier. $SNDK $xSNDK The $80,000 mark has become the fortress for the bulls and bears battle. This week, the Federal Reserve decision, PCE data, and tech giant earnings reports bombard the market intensively, sending the fear index soaring to 42. With extremely low volume, the market has reached a critical turning point.
Following the macro deleveraging trend, although the real positions have gained huge profits, the position structure hides risks on the eve of the storm:
· $ETH short: average price 2383, current price 2312. Floating profit 1430U (+90%), 30x full position.
· $BTC short: average price 81662, current price 79956. Floating profit 273U (+41%), 20x isolated margin.
· $BNB long: average price 731, break-even, 20x isolated margin.
Survival rules on the eve of the storm:
1. Realize profits to prevent double-sided liquidation.
30x full position is hard to withstand macro shocks. Immediately close half of ETH positions to lock in 700U profit, set trailing stop for the rest; reduce BTC positions at the 80,000 level, move stop loss below the entry price to stay undefeated.
2. Remove counter-trend positions to prevent altcoin catch-up drops.
Macro deleveraging dominates, BNB longs are prone to catch-up declines. It is recommended to close positions immediately or set a strict stop loss near 715.
3. Lower leverage to prevent extreme volatility.
During earnings week, macro will overwhelm technicals. Before data release, overall leverage must be reduced below 10x.
On the eve of the storm, securing profits and reducing dimensional risk is the top trading rule. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Putting on-chain actions back into the macro framework, I am more concerned whether the buying is due to a rise in risk appetite or short sellers taking profits. Core Trader 57 closed about 10% of their $BTC short position this time, using 7x leverage. The amount closed was approximately $357,500, realizing a profit of $12,528.83.
My inclination is: this is a profit-taking move and cannot yet be considered a major shift to bullish sentiment. Closing shorts requires buying back, but this buying reduces old risk rather than actively increasing long exposure. Although both involve buying, their implications for subsequent demand are different, and I do not mix them.
Pushing further, here is my hypothesis: if macro liquidity improves, then after short sellers take profits, new longs willing to step in are more likely to appear, making the risk appetite recovery sustainable; if funding constraints remain tight, then after the buyback ends, whether demand continues is questionable. Also, this time only about 10% was exited, which is insufficient to prove that traders have overturned their original bearish view.
I tend to give this signal less weight initially: profit-taking means this part of the trade was successful, but it does not mean it can vote for the macro direction. To judge whether this short covering has greater directional significance, what are you most concerned about now: US dollar liquidity, real US Treasury yields, or rate cut expectations? Which change best helps you assess risk appetite?Last night's strategy provided a precise southbound range of 4018-4030, multiple entry opportunities, each entry with a 10-point space!【Market Snapshot】Dogecoin Shorts Squeezed Together
$DOGE shorts are definitely having a wild ride in this market. There are 499 short whale contracts holding $84 million in positions, while longs only have a bit over $10 million, making the long-short ratio drop to 12%. The entire network is overwhelmingly bearish on Dogecoin.
But the more crowded the positions, the harsher the backlash. With $80 million in shorts concentrated on one side, even a slight price uptick will trigger stop-losses and liquidations in a chain reaction, turning short covering into fuel for a price rally. Being bearish doesn’t mean it’s safe; crowded shorts themselves are a risk.
Of course, this doesn’t mean a rally will happen immediately. The key is whether the price can hold and test higher levels; if it just consolidates sideways, shorts can still slowly wear down longs. But blindly chasing shorts now is no longer cost-effective.
Don’t get swept up by the "whole network is bearish" sentiment—first watch which side the positions start to loosen.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
$DOGE
👇Still slowly on the road to breaking even, I now look at the news and no longer dare to focus solely on “positive or negative” factors. After losses in the past two years, I realized that the numbers on paper and the actual money you can keep are really not the same.
According to Bloomberg, the Netherlands plans to vote on related tax reforms in November: stocks, bonds, and options are planned to be subject to capital gains tax upon sale starting in 2028, while cryptocurrencies, gold, and foreign exchange may still be taxed annually on unrealized gains at least until 2030. The local crypto industry organization warns that this arrangement could trigger a sell-off of crypto assets.
I think this is potential pressure for local holders, but to directly interpret it as an inevitable market-wide sell-off is too hasty. The proposal has not yet been implemented, and the industry’s warning is not a result that has already occurred.
What touched me most is that unrealized gains do not equal cash in hand. If you need to pay taxes on unrealized gains, then people lacking sufficient cash might have to sell part of their assets to raise tax funds, which is my speculation. Another layer of pressure is that, although both are investments, the timing of taxation differs, which may affect local investors’ willingness to allocate assets, not just short-term sentiment.
One lesson I’ve learned is: when calculating risk, you can’t just consider price volatility; you also have to consider rules and cash needs. For friends still breaking even, stay steady, don’t rush to race with every piece of news 💪 How has everyone’s mindset been lately? If you have to pay annual taxes on unrealized gains in your holdings, would you reserve cash or adjust your portfolio ratio?Looking at this type of treasury increase, I'll first calculate the risk and reward: an additional demand doesn't mean chasing the news will yield good odds. Solana treasury company DeFi Development increased its holdings by 5,346 SOL, bringing the total holdings to about 2.595 million SOL. My judgment leans positive, but it's not enough to change my overall view on SOL alone.
The reason is simple: the new position relative to the existing scale is not large. This news slightly raises the likelihood that "this company is still willing to increase its SOL exposure," but it doesn't directly increase the probability that "the market will continue to rise." One company adding to its position is different from the entire market showing new demand.
I want to see where the funds come from and the holding costs; since the material doesn't say, I'll leave it blank for now. My guess is, if the funds are stable and the holding period is long enough, then the continuity of treasury demand is more worth attention; if it relies on high-cost financing, then besides price volatility, there is an additional layer of financial pressure, making the odds not necessarily favorable.
For ordinary participants, I think the easiest pitfall is to treat the 2.595 million SOL stock as the new buying volume this time. If the news is amplified by sentiment, even if the directional judgment is correct, the participation expectation may worsen. I will continue to watch if the increase can be sustained and won't use a single position increase to back my winning rate.The ancient giant whale who subscribed to 100,000 $ETH in the 2015 ICO continues to sell, transferring 3,000 ETH to exchanges in nearly 24 hours, worth 6.94 million USD 🙌
Since its cost was as low as 0.31 USD, the return rate for this sale will reach 746,324%. There are still 47,000 ETH left on-chain, worth 109 million USD; additionally, it is worth noting that last night he transferred over 100 million USD in stablecoins to major exchanges / MM / OTC institutions, purpose unknown
Wallet address 0x0980B34aDE9476Dba81BCDB0F865a333793Ad1c2❗️ ❗️Strong selling pressure has appeared in the US market
Bitcoin's trading price on Coinbase is $140 lower than on Binance and OKX.
Over the past 6 months, weak OTC demand has become the norm.
Don't rush to bottom-fish; it may not be the bottom yet
⚠️The above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice848,000 Bitcoin tokens are in cold storage; that's not just a position, it's like a whole bluefin tuna hanging over an open flame—$20.9 billion in quarterly unrealized gains, like oil dripping and sizzling on the charcoal, the sound so pleasant it makes you forget there are other pots cooking in the kitchen.
But a true chef never applauds the dripping oil. The oil is the result; the heat control is the skill. The Q3 earnings report won't be served until after the U.S. market closes on October 29, and what I have in front of me now is the ingredient list and seasoning chart: the main dish piled up to nearly 850,000 BTC, so heavy it almost bends the whole stove; at the same time reaching for a $176 million preferred stock buyback—that's a carefully measured thickening, not an addition, but a reduction. When you have unrealized gains in hand, you don't rush to pour more oil into the pot; instead, you skim the foam off the surface and simmer the broth to concentrate the cost—this is the old-school method and the safest way to avoid disaster.
What truly decides whether this dish can earn a star is never how much main dish there is, but the ratio. The mainstream coins are the main dish, taking up 70% of the plate; missing even a piece of meat ruins the presentation; altcoins are the seasoning, a pinch to enhance aroma, but too much makes the whole pot bitter; leveraged contracts are the super spicy chili—just a fingernail-sized amount can lift the soul of the dish, but a shaky hand dumping half the jar will burn the intestines and scare all the guests away the next day. Now the main dish is already exaggeratedly thick, and the heat keeps increasing; the problem isn't the flavor, but the kitchen size: the stove is only so big, and if you want to keep adding ingredients to the pot of 850,000 BTC, you have to rely on external financing to get a bigger stove or portion the existing broth into smaller servings to feed new products.
And I can hear the commotion from the neighboring stove. The tech stocks in the U.S. market are secretly competing with this side; one side is running on oil, the other on sugar, but the base flavor is becoming more alike—capital is choosing the more fuel-efficient pot. Stored yields suddenly turn sweet, and sugar color easily overshoots, and when it overshoots, it turns bitter.
So the next focus isn't how much unrealized gain there is, but whether this pot needs a new stove, which stove to add fuel to, and whether that jar of chili has been opened. Positions can be heavy, but ratios can't be messed with; having a big enough pot doesn't mean you dare to turn up the heat. True masters always use the overflow oil to season the next dish, not pour all the oil back into the fire. #strategyq3btcgains#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC around 80,150, the third test of the 80,000 mark, 80,000 has become a “meat grinder.” ETF weekly inflow is 301 million but lost 774 million in the last two days, with a net outflow of 314 million in October, showing structural fragility. 81,500-82,000 has turned from support to resistance, with dense buy orders below 79,300. Before the FOMC, no position taking, no short chasing, no bottom fishing, wait for volume confirmation.Last night presented a rather divided picture: U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.82%, Microsoft up 1.54%, but Bitcoin remained flat at 80070, not moving at all.
More notably, MSTR fell 4.24% even before its earnings report was released, as funds exited early. As one of the biggest buyers in the crypto space, it was sold off prematurely.
Looking at Bitcoin's own 4-hour chart, during the U.S. stock market session last night, it saw the largest volume in nearly a week, yet the price barely moved—a classic case of high volume with stagnant price. Some are desperately buying at this level, while others are desperately selling, resulting in a stalemate at 80,000.
So it's not that no one is entering the market; rather, buyers and sellers collided head-on.
This balance won't last long. The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow, with results announced at 2 a.m. on the 29th. MSTR is also releasing its earnings this week. These two events coinciding are specifically meant to break this balance.
My view is that the high volume with stagnant price above 80,000 is neither a top nor a bottom, but a divergence. The end of this divergence will determine the direction. Breaking above the double top at 80,850 means buyers win; breaking below 79,200 means sellers win. Until then, no one can claim stability.
What do you think—who will blink first this time, the bulls or the bears?
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $MSTR $BTC $ETH A brief analysis of BTC short-term trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action (strategy suggestions)
Comprehensive judgment
Dow Theory confirms the panic bottom at 79,275 breaking the downtrend structure
Chan Theory first buy confirmation + bottom break reversal structure
Wave Theory Y' wave ends, new round of impulse wave ① in progress
Volume-price relationship: 20.3 billion daily volume + 1.245 billion Delta = sellers completely cleared out
Order flow +1.245 billion is the strongest accumulation signal of the year
Price action panic bottom + long lower shadow + holding above 80k = complete bottom structure.
Six-dimensional comprehensive: 79,275 is the ultimate bottom of the six-week grinder, currently at the starting point of a new 4,000+ point rally. But note: only 400 million low volume in the early session on 10-27, true direction confirmation requires waiting for the US session (after 20:00) volume breakout at 80,500-81,000.
$BTC #星球日报 Crypto markets are attempting a rebound, but the money trail suggests relief rather than reversal. The four-hour window tells one story; the 24-hour and 30-day windows tell another, and the gap between them is where the real signal sits. On the latest four-hour reading, $BTC drew $39.36 million in net spot inflows and $127 million in net contract inflows. $ETH followed with $24.24 million spot and $56.19 million in contracts. That looks like buyers stepping back in. Zoom out, though, and the samThe $SUI market hasn't really moved much, but the funds on the $SUI chain have completely withdrawn.
Stablecoins ran off by 14% in a week, and DEX trading volume was directly halved by 46%.
No matter how loud the off-chain hype is, money simply can't be retained on-chain. With liquidity drying up like this, there's not even a decent buy order; don't even think about the $1 mark bouncing back in the short term.
#SUI
$SUI
👇