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📊 Daily Brief｜October 26, 2026
🌐 **Market Overview:** Total crypto market cap is about $2.68 trillion, basically flat from yesterday and down about 2% from 7 days ago; 24-hour trading volume is about $53.6 billion, up about 37% from yesterday's $39 billion; cumulative volume over the past 7 days is about $448.1 billion, down 13% from the previous 7 days' $515.7 billion. BTC is around $80,200, with a market dominance of 60.1%, down about 2.4% over the week. The latest full trading day for BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $636 million; the week still shows overall net inflow, but a slight net outflow since October began. The market is awaiting the Fed meeting, while Middle East tensions and high oil prices continue to suppress risk appetite.
📈 Phase Assessment: Bull Score 52/100; Altcoin Season around 47–53, currently = early bull/recovery phase. BTC remains stronger than most altcoins, not yet entering a full altcoin season.
💰 **Strategy:** Do not chase BTC between 78K–82.5K; it turns strong again above 82.5K; first accumulation at 75K, second key accumulation at 70K, and only use 65K if macro conditions do not worsen. Core principle remains to accumulate in batches and avoid trying to catch the bottom.
🚀 Potential Coin: MORPHO.
Today's takeaway: $80,000 determines short-term sentiment, $75,000 determines buying odds, and $82,500 determines whether the trend turns strong again. 🌙 10.26 Evening Session Liquidation Heatmap
$SOL $ETH $BTC
Conclusion first: After looking at the three charts, there are magnets both above and below, but the ones closest to the current price are basically the lower bands. Tonight, focus on the downside first, don’t just watch the upside.
- BTC: Current price around 80134, radar ↑ 81250 / ↓ 79025, distances are about the same, roughly 1100 each. The two brightest bands on the chart: upper 81500-82000, lower 79000. BTC is symmetrical top and bottom, no side is obviously more crowded.
- ETH: Current price around 2317, radar upper about 2400 / lower about 2270. The brightest upper band is at 2400-2420 (yellow band), the bright lower band is around 2275. The downside is only about 40 away, the upside about 85, so scanning the long leverage positions below is closer.
- SOL: Current price around 101.3, radar ↑ 104.4 / ↓ 97.7. The brightest area is around 103-105 above, the next brightest is 97-99 below. SOL’s top and bottom are both less than 4 dollars apart, so volatility can reach both sides.
Peak values of bright bands on the chart: BTC 247 million, ETH 349 million, SOL 64.87 million, ETH has the thickest leverage stack.
Overall: The common point for the three coins is that the bright bands below are not far from the current price. If the US stock market opens lower tonight, there is a good chance it will first sweep the long leverage below.$NEAR vs $HYPE Bears Are Getting Uncomfortable
Both are moving higher, but NEAR looks more interesting to me.
Short sellers are heavily positioned against both tokens, and they're already taking losses.
NEAR has the bigger imbalance, which could make another move higher particularly painful for bears.
HYPE looks a little more balanced, but the pressure is still there.
My take? I wouldn't rush to short either one.Sometimes the best fuel for a rally is a crowd convinced the price has to fall$BTC weekend spike to 79300 then pulled back, currently grinding between 80000–80700. With 20x leverage, this is not a trending market but a liquidation zone.
Macro: 10Y US Treasury stuck at 4.99%, Brent crude oil dropped to 114 but hasn't resolved the inflation anchor, funds are hesitant to bet ahead of the FOMC (10/28–29). BTC spot ETF outflows totaled 773 million over two days, Coinbase premium remains negative, US spot buying is weak.
Pre-market outlook: If US stocks open slightly higher and yields stay below 5%, BTC grinding at 80k may face resistance at 81000–81700; if Nasdaq weakens and yields break above 5%, expect a stop-loss sweep below 79300 for longs, targeting 77500.
Trading: Do not open new leverage positions early, wait for 30 minutes of volume and price action after US market opens, move stop-loss on existing floating profit positions. $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Just past 9 PM, brewed a cup of tea and sat down to watch the market. The $APR short position has been hanging for a while, finally showing some movement.
Opened a short at 0.03577 with 20x leverage, now at 0.03343, floating profit 130%. But honestly, this cup of tea isn't very comforting. The actual drop is only 6.54%, a gap of 0.00234, not even enough for the market to yawn. Short positions on small coins can get a sudden spike anytime.
On the order book, the 0.03343 level is very delicate. It's just 0.00143 away from 0.032, like a thin sheet of paper. If it breaks through, the next support is 0.03; if not, it’s the bottom. With 20x leverage, the distance between the ceiling and floor is often just one spike.
The worst is getting hot-headed now. A 130% floating profit easily creates the illusion of "I'm awesome," then adding positions, then getting swept away by a surge. I've seen this too many times and paid my dues.
So the move is simple: push the stop to break-even, take the big profit, keep a small base position as a lottery ticket. Before finishing this cup of tea, take what should be taken first. If it breaks below 0.032, watch 0.03; if it rises back to 0.03577, admit the mistake. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 HBM4 takes over, SK Hynix's Q3 profits reach a new level
SK Hynix will announce its Q3 2026 financial report on October 28. The market consensus expects revenue of about 98 trillion KRW and operating profit of about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin approaching 78%, potentially setting a new single-quarter record.
The key variable is HBM4. The company started mass production of 12-layer HBM4 in Q2, with capacity ramping up in the second half of the year, supplying Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. Capacity for 2026–2027 has already been locked in through long-term agreements. Compared to HBM3E, HBM4 has a higher unit price and added value, and large-scale delivery will directly boost the DRAM business gross margin and overall profit baseline.
However, the "boost" is not to be blindly exaggerated: on one hand, HBM4 shipment pace is affected by customer certification and generational transitions, so Q3 volume may be slightly lower than early expectations; on the other hand, long-term supply agreements (LTA) smooth out price fluctuations and also reduce the elasticity of spot price increase benefits.
Conclusion: HBM4 is the key to SK Hynix's profit "quality improvement," not the sole engine. Q3 performance is maintained by the combined volume and price increase of HBM4, server DRAM, and eSSD; what truly determines valuation is the guidance in the financial report regarding Q4 HBM4 volume ramp-up pace, long-term agreement coverage, and shareholder returns.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ In this wave of the market, $BNB has indeed broken out from platform tokens, becoming the only platform token to rise this week:
BNB's RSI is 49.6, neutral; the three moving averages (738/737/749) have converged into a flat line; it has only dropped 4.5% in 30 days and is stuck at the 32% midpoint of the 30-day range.
Currently, the coin price is hovering between 700-760, neither falling nor breaking out with volume, making it the most stable in the market but without any story.
$HYPE looks a bit weak, showing a standard bearish alignment (MA778 < MA20 81 < MA30 84), and is close to the 12.7% bottom of the 30-day box, with an RSI of 40.1, indicating weakness. It has dropped 16.7% in 30 days; 74.5 is the last wall—if broken, it will head to the 70 range.
$OKB is actually a bit unfortunate; the narrative just started when macro policies tightened. It is now resting at the 8% bottom of the 30-day box (range 106-143.3), RSI 39 weak, MA7111 pressing overhead, down 10.6% in 30 days.
Currently, 106 is a strong support; if it doesn't break, it will be consolidating at the bottom. But if it breaks, the next psychological integer level is 100. #OKXICE向SEC申请推出代币化股票交易平台 All three trigger points failed to hold throughout the day, 79,369 still underfoot
BTC today 24h high 80,952, low 79,369, current price 80,333, the whole day in one sentence: every line touched, none held.
◆ BTC | Trigger points only count if closed above, not just touched
In the morning session, we said reclaim 80,500, the highest in the evening only touched 80,575, closed at 80,538 then slipped back; twice in the afternoon touched 80,300, closed below each time; the 79,390 area at 11 o'clock was the only realized move today, then bounced back above 80,200. Support at 80,000-80,100 to stabilize, hourly close above 80,575 targets 80,952, hourly close below 79,369 exit looking at 79,000.
◆ ETH | 2,340 not touched all day
ETH current price 2,324, 24h high 2,365, low 2,293, daytime highest only touched 2,338, 2,340 not touched all day. Support at 2,310-2,330 to stabilize, hourly close above 2,340 targets 2,365, close below 2,293 exit looking at 2,282.
Before the rate decision, don't chase lines by touch; only act after a close holds above. Entering on touches is like giving money to the grinder.Breakdown Warning: BTC / ETH Defense Lines Are Collapsing
Core Judgment: This is not a shakeout, but a defensive collapse
$BTC fell below 80000 over the weekend, with an intraday low spike at 79332. The 79000—80000 range is the only effective support zone recently; if the daily close is below 79000, 78000 will be directly exposed. Until 82000 is reclaimed above, all rebounds are escape windows, not reversals.
ETH: ETF continues to bleed
$ETH broke below 2300, currently around 2321, with moving averages in a bearish alignment since the 2526 peak. More critically, the capital flow: ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $221 million this week, totaling $1.18 billion in October, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows, indicating institutions are voting with their feet. 2280 is a previous low; a valid break below it will open a downside target of 2,150.
Long positions are being liquidated, not "shaken out"
In the past 24 hours, long liquidations across the network reached $82.01 million, while shorts were only $36.7 million, with a long-to-short liquidation ratio exceeding 2:1; ETH long liquidations were $22.41 million, the highest among all coins. Leveraged longs have not been fully cleaned out yet, but the fuel for rebounds is running out.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Recently, there's a popular saying in the community: ZEC's market cap will sooner or later reach 10% of Bitcoin's. Bitcoin is currently about $1.6 trillion, so 10% is $160 billion, while ZEC is still under $20 billion.
This claim has several sources. Bankless's Hoffman said on the 21st that in this cycle ZEC can reach 10% of Bitcoin's market cap, and 25% in the next cycle; Grayscale research head Pandl also calculated that 10% corresponds to about $8,100 by 2030; Hayes had called out similar numbers even earlier.
Let's do the math. ZEC is now $1,208, with about 16.33 million coins circulating, which is only about 1.2% of Bitcoin's market cap. At 5%, the price would be about $4,900, a fourfold increase; at 10%, it would be roughly $9,700, needing an eightfold rise.
The bullish logic isn't without basis. AI makes on-chain monitoring easier, making privacy a necessity; Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF is already listed on the NYSE, so institutions can buy; the shielded pool locks about a quarter of the circulating supply, so the chips aren't too scattered.
But I think reaching 10% this cycle is very difficult. It has already risen nearly sixfold this year, with large contract positions, and much of the increase is leverage-driven; privacy coins inherently cross regulatory red lines, so delisting risk is always present; Bitcoin's $1.6 trillion relies on consensus and institutional allocation, while ZEC's buying power is far behind. Reaching 3% to 5% this cycle would already be very strong; I prefer to see 10% as the bull market narrative ceiling, not a target price. The bigger the multiples shouted, the more you need to think about who's taking the risk. $ZEC SK Hynix's Q3 is almost at a "high-profit pricing" level, with the market more concerned about whether HBM4's volume ramp-up keeps pace with the narrative.
Hard data: Market consensus expects operating profit around 77 trillion KRW, with operating margin soaring above 70%; HBM4 began mass production and shipment in Q2, but industry sources say Q3 shipment pace is still slower than expected (Rubin's pace and tuning). Regular DRAM/NAND price hikes also support profits, so "good-looking profits" don't necessarily mean "HBM4 has fully delivered." AI computing power chain sentiment will influence risk appetite, indirectly affecting $BTC and tech heavyweights.
Do you focus more on the realization of "record-high profit margins" or the discount from "HBM4 volume falling short of expectations"?
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC $SKHYNIX $SKHY $DOOD is the low market cap altcoin with the biggest contract gains, and it doesn't even have spot trading!!
A small coin with only a 20 million market cap can surge 60% in one go. If you say there's no project team controlling the market, well, I’m the first not to believe that. Daily trading volume is $230 million, all in the contract pool.
Looking at the chart, there was a volume surge at the bottom with a 260% spike in one candle, shooting from around 0.001267 all the way up to 0.004956, then quickly falling back to about 0.0013, a nearly 100% retracement. The gradual decline indicates the project team isn’t dumping all at once but is pulling up the price while trapping holders.
Today it surged again with volume, hitting around 0.0025 before a slight pullback. In my opinion, this pattern clearly shows the project team trying to offload their last chips. Also, look at the negative funding rates—shorts are paying to hold positions. On the surface, it looks like a crowded short, but it’s more like the project team is hedging long and short to lock in profits, not a healthy bullish trend. Would you run in to catch a flying knife when the market maker is both eating and taking?
Right now, every resistance point above $DOOD has selling pressure from trapped holders trying to break even. If they can break even, they will; if they can reduce holdings, they will. Personally, I don’t recommend going long. If you’re aggressive and want to trade the swing, set a stop loss at 0.0013; if it breaks below, just exit.$37.8 million worth of $HYPE deposited into exchanges, yet the price held steady
In the past 24 hours, three wallets suspected to belong to the same whale deposited 494,300 $HYPE tokens into Coinbase, approximately $37.83 million (according to Lookonchain data, reported by KuCoin, Phemex, and others).
According to the usual script, depositing tokens into exchanges signals impending sell pressure. But this time it didn’t follow the script: $HYPE is currently around $77.59 (Beijing time 21:19), opened 24 hours ago at $76.65, rising about 1.2% instead of falling, just shy of the intraday high of $77.74.
Two possibilities: the whale is just moving tokens to a different place, or waiting to act until after the FOMC announcement. Either way, the price holding after such a large deposit is itself a signal — the market absorbed potential sell pressure of $37.83 million, which is not weak.
Before the FOMC results early Thursday, whether this batch of tokens is a sword hanging overhead or already digested volume will be seen in the next 48 hours.This week is a super macro week, here is a summary of major events for quick review and tracking:
1. Tuesday｜Israel General Election
Short-term priority: top; long-term priority: solid
The US and Israel are closely linked. The election results will affect the subsequent situation. Only after the election is finalized can we better observe the rhythm of related US policies.
2. Wednesday before 08:00｜SK Hynix Earnings Report
Priority: top
3. Thursday 02:00 Federal Reserve Decision, 02:30 Powell Press Conference
Priority: solid
The market basically prices in no rate change in October, with the focus on the December rate hike expectation. If Powell signals dovishness and lowers the December rate hike expectation, the market is likely to rebound.
4. Thursday 04:00｜Microsoft, Google Earnings + Conference Call｜Priority: top
Thursday 09:00｜Samsung Earnings｜Priority: elite
Thursday 20:30｜US Q3 GDP Preliminary, September PCE Inflation Data｜Priority: solid
5. Friday 04:00｜Amazon, SanDisk Earnings + Conference Call｜Priority: top
Friday｜Intel, Strategy, Coinbase Earnings Conference Calls｜Priority: elite
Friday｜Bank of Japan Meeting, market expects no rate change｜Priority: elite
Other minor news will not be listed.
Overall rhythm: major events intensify starting Thursday, the key market turning point is likely within this window.
Current CME tools show a 73.9% probability of a December rate hike:
• If Powell continues to emphasize inflation stickiness and keeps room for further hikes, US Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen, suppressing high-valuation tech assets;
• If he takes a cautious stance and suggests continuing to observe subsequent data, risk appetite will recover.
In an optimistic scenario, as long as Powell gives a "wait for the next round of data to reassess" tone, the November rebound narrative could start early.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Barclays upgraded TSLA to Overweight, raising the target price from 370 to 450, with a pre-market gain of over 2%.
CNBC reported today that Barclays raised the rating from Equal Weight to Overweight, with a target price of $450.
Compared to Friday's close at 372.22, there is about 21% upside.
The main reasons are the potential merger with SPCX, a recovery in the core business, and a turning point in Robotaxi mileage.
Nasdaq pre-market is around 381.83, up about 2.6%; TSLA perpetual contracts on OKX are also near 382.
I think the upgrade is a sentiment catalyst, but treating the merger as the main narrative risks overextension.
Q3 automotive revenue is still down year-over-year, and free cash flow has been cut significantly; I won’t chase the rally until these stabilize.
Observing without chasing.
Watch if it can hold above 380; if it falls below Friday’s close near 372, consider the upgrade trade invalid.
Will you add to your position following the upgrade, or wait for more concrete merger clues?
$TSLA $SPCX $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ This week, the FOMC is very likely to hold steady; the real game lies in the dot plot and December rate hike pricing, not just the decision itself.
Hard data: The market assigns about a 94-95% probability to the October 27–28 decision being "hold steady, maintain 3.75%–4.00%", with only about a 5% chance of a rate hike; traders are more focused on the post-meeting statement and the dot plot, to see if December’s hike is locked in. $BTC is currently fluctuating around $80,000, with a slight drop in the last 24 hours; risk assets are simultaneously digesting high oil prices and the U.S. earnings week. A pause does not mean dovishness; the tone is more important than the decision itself.
Do you believe more in "peaking this year and starting to watch" or "another hike still possible in December"?
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting, with the current target range at 3.75%–4.00%. But here’s what I’m watching closely 👀 A rate pause doesn’t automatically mean bullish momentum. With inflation still running hot, the Fed’s comments about future rate hikes could matter more than the decision itself. 📈 A softer outlook could support Bitcoin and risk assets. 📉 A hawkish tone could trigger fresh selling pressure. For me, the real opportunity$SPCX is not at the bottom yet!!
Rocket's recent performance has indeed been good, with the financial report showing a year-on-year growth of 161%. The performance is quite solid. Additionally, Tesla, which can fly, recently used Rocket's cold gas thruster technology, and with stories about AI and Starlink, Rocket surged to the strongest daily resistance near $166, then quickly started to pull back.
The biggest issue now is the unlocking of shares. A large batch of shares was unlocked a few days ago [about 1.3 billion shares], and today another batch [328.4 million shares] entered the tradable range, greatly increasing selling pressure on Rocket. Although unlocking doesn't necessarily mean shareholders will sell, if early investors holding low-cost chips choose to take profits and the market buying can't keep up, the stock price is likely to face pressure!
So don't just listen to the stories now; selling pressure and capital absorption are already evident on the chart. Therefore, the suggested trading approach: chasing shorts at the current position is risky, you can wait for a rebound to short at a higher point. Recommended entry point: short near 151 on the rebound, target around 145 $BTC $ETH Perfectly placed short order on Bitcoin! Waiting a bit more on Ethereum
Bitcoin has already reached the short order position at 80300 that Caibao mentioned this morning. This rebound was expected. Don’t panic if your short order is currently at a floating loss; it will definitely drop!
Caibao already said this morning that macroeconomic uncertainties are causing the overall market to weaken. This rebound is more of a correction after the drop, and there are no clear reversal signals yet. For Ethereum, wait until it reaches the resistance level before shorting!
Next, focus on whether Bitcoin can break below 79000. If it breaks effectively, the downside space will fully open. Let the market decide the trend; execute trades according to plan!Google is really having a rough time! It has dropped 25% from the high of 409, is it time to bottom-fish now?
1. $GOOGL looks like a very good opportunity, the key support is around the previous low near 315, and it’s there now! I think bottom-fishing Google is much more worthwhile than bottom-fishing the index, because VOO or $QQQ only pulled back about 5%, nowhere near the 25% drop of Google.
2. Brothers, do you remember the old tech stock Microsoft? It was also mistakenly sold off by the market and languished for half a year. Then what happened? MSFT soared, rebounded 30%, and reached near its previous high again.
3. Google is obviously more innovative than old Microsoft, whether it’s the Gemini large model, TPU chips, or cloud computing power, all are top-tier. Plus, its other businesses are also top-notch, like Search, Android, Gmail, Maps, or YouTube, all cash cows.
4. I’m still very optimistic about Google. After escaping the top at 370 last time, now it can be picked up again. I think the 300-320 range is a very good entry point. As shown in the chart, I will enter a starter position at 320, expecting to buy 2 or 3 more times on dips, entering in batches to reduce risk.
5. If the script of the Microsoft sell-off is the same, languishing for half a year, then Google is actually about to come out of it. Let’s patiently lay low and wait.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ 🔥Harsh Market Reality: Retail Investors Charge to Take Over, Whales Only Focus on Risk Control!
The current market is extremely fragmented, with fake and real rebounds clearly distinguishable! BTC is lingering around 79,800, while ETH is weakly bottoming at 2,310. Market volume is rapidly shrinking; last night’s dump saw 53.69 million in transactions within an hour, today it has directly shrunk to 48 million, turning fierce drops into low-volume grinding, signaling an imminent market shift 📉
The long-short dynamic is starkly contrasting: retail investors are charging hard to buy the dip, while whales are busy replenishing positions to survive! Some large holders control $396 million in BTC and ETH longs, with ETH liquidation price at 2,181. Last night’s low was 2,282, just $30 away from triggering liquidation. At midnight, an emergency margin top-up of 9.21 million USDC was made to stay alive.
Data reveals the harsh truth: ETH retail long-short ratio is 1.82, with long holders overwhelmingly outnumbering shorts, the public is bullish and taking the risk; but top-tier whales hold 94 shorts and 34 longs, the main force has quietly turned bearish.
Capital flow is even more painful: retail BTC transfers to exchanges over 30 days surged to 10.75 billion, a half-year high; whale capital entering the market shrank from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion, the main players are steadily withdrawing.
This rebound is entirely propped up by retail investors, the foundation is extremely weak! BTC rebound at 80,500 lacks volume, ETH is pressured and unstable between 2,360–2,390, all are high shorting opportunities. Only a volume-backed hold above key resistance levels can justify switching to bullish. Remember: don’t go head-to-head with whales fully loaded with risk control!
$BTC $ETH
⚠️ Market analysis is for communication only and does not constitute investment advice
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Core data analysis of BTC whale positions in the crypto market shows an imbalance in the whale long-short ratio, with shorts currently facing an unrealized loss of 120 million!!!
BTC current price is 80191, slightly down 0.25%, with the current funding rate at 0.0080%.
Total whale positions amount to 3.32B USDT, with 1023 whales in total, and a nominal long-short ratio of 27.61%.
Longs (285 whales)
Current position is 720.34M USDT, average entry price 87296.15, unrealized loss of 63.8236M USDT, with a profit ratio of only 33.33%. Most longs are in a loss position, with costs far above the current price.
Shorts (738 whales)
Current position is 2.60B USDT, average entry price 76426.59, unrealized loss of 122.44M USDT, with a profit ratio of 55.14%. Shorts hold a larger position size, but the current price is above their average entry price, also deeply stuck in unrealized losses.
The current price of 80191 is stuck in the middle range between the long and short cost bases, with long costs high and short costs low, causing the market to tug back and forth—a typical long-short double kill pattern.
This market observation is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC $ETH $SOL 📉Extreme grinding washout! Severe divergence between bulls and bears, just one last step to the bottom
BTC is repeatedly rubbing between 79400—80500, ETH oscillates back and forth near 2295—2335, like a rider circling downstairs, knowing it's almost there but not landing yet.
The capital side is very divided: 40 new wallets withdrew 9458 BTC, worth about $771 million, accumulating at low prices against the trend; on the other hand, a whale has nearly 400 million ETH long positions hanging at the liquidation line, liquidation price 2181, last night’s low was 2282, just $30 away from margin call. The big players’ long-short ratio is 0.77, flat longs are watching, quietly leaning towards the bears.
The most agonizing are retail investors, ETH long-short ratio is as high as 2.46, bulls account for 76.68%, they want to bottom-fish after the drop, but are unsatisfied with the rebound, caught between adding positions and cutting losses.
In short: big players are quietly switching pockets, retail bulls are still stubbornly holding on. Positions are too heavy, the main force won’t actively push up, only when bulls fully recognize the output clearing can the bottom truly be seen!
$BTC $ETH
⚠️Market review is for communication only and does not constitute investment advice
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH bulls have fallen!!
2350 broke support, and Caibao's long positions have timely been wiped out! BTC's 80000 support can't hold either!
What issues over the weekend caused Ethereum to drop so much? First, it's definitely the approaching midterm elections causing funds to seek safety, plus the rising expectations of a rate hike in December.
Another factor is the delay in Ethereum's planned Glamsterdam upgrade test; the market might be worried about development progress not meeting expectations, and funds speculating on the upgrade may have pulled out first, leading to this waterfall decline and all supports breaking.
Caibao has lost to the news again; long positions are wiped out. We'll fight again on the next trade, brothers!$USDT
Someone shouted "Brazil has collapsed, hurry to seek safe haven."
I first checked the crypto market: BTC is still hovering above 80,000, with a 24-hour low of 79,377. It did drop, but it didn’t collapse along with Brazil. The breaking news says stock index futures fell 15% intraday hitting the limit down, and the real opened with a sharp 8.2% drop against the dollar, triggered by Lula winning the presidential election.
There is a contrast here. Brazil is one of the countries with the highest crypto adoption globally. When locals face currency depreciation, their usual move isn’t to exchange for dollars but to buy USDT. Every time the real depreciates, the premium on off-exchange stablecoins rises. So the "Brazil collapse" may not be bearish in the crypto circle; on the contrary, it could be a passive expansion of demand.
Tonight Canada is also releasing a stablecoin regulatory draft, banning issuers from paying interest to holders. The fact that regulation is so detailed precisely shows this thing has grown too big to ignore.
I'll leave the rest for when the real opens tomorrow.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This week, MicroStrategy did not buy a single Bitcoin.
Announcement from MicroStrategy founder Saylor: repurchased $205 million of its own preferred shares $STRC. Currently holding 848,517 $BTC and $5.1 billion in USD assets.
Last week, it didn’t buy any either. The money went to repurchasing STRC, what does this mean?
MicroStrategy’s original cycle was: issue shares and bonds → buy crypto → crypto price rises → stock price rises → can issue more.
Now it has stopped buying crypto and started using cash to buy back its own preferred shares.
This is not because it lacks money; it has $5.1 billion in assets but chooses to first repair its capital structure. The preferred share repurchase plan size has been increased from $2 billion to $3 billion. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
"Can SK Hynix's bet on HBM4 break the deadlock?"
SK Hynix is about to release its Q3 earnings report these days, and everyone's eyes are on NVIDIA. High Bandwidth Memory is selling hot in the AI arms race, and everyone is calculating how much real money this windfall can actually bring.
On the surface, orders are lined up until next year, but the next-generation HBM4 has pushed the technical threshold to a new height. TSMC's advanced process custom foundry combined with huge R&D expenses has directly driven production costs sharply higher.
How much the profit margin at the forefront is squeezed depends on whether the gross profit figures disclosed in this earnings report can withstand the pressure. $BTC The ETH Foundation sold 2,785 ETH today, totaling $6.42 million.
The foundation selling coins doesn't necessarily mean a bearish outlook, but when sell-offs repeatedly occur under market pressure, it inevitably heightens investors' concerns about ETH supply and price trends. Since it's an official sale, it always sparks a lot of criticism.
However, today's total ETH trading volume was about $8 billion, and $6.42 million accounts for less than 0.08%. Purely from a supply and demand perspective, this amount "can't move" the price. ETH's weakness around 2300 today is due to overall negative sentiment + ETF outflows + failure to hold technical support levels, not because of these 2,785 coins being sold. 📉 Reversal downward: 79,377.7 will break, first watch 79,220.
At 18:15 I bet on first watching 81,070, highest 80,561.9, difference 508. The surrender line 79,000 has not broken.
First correction: 0.01000% is a positive rate, the payer is the long side. Discount −0.0392% still pays full rent, the money is still paid by the long side.
Today's three settlements total 0.0223%, at 100x leverage it eats 2.23% of margin, the coin hasn't moved, the position shrinks itself.
Liquidation stopped: 24-hour liquidation 156 million, −70.4%, only 3.96 million left in the last hour; 70% are long positions, 4-hour flip to short 55.1%.
Contrary evidence one: ETF daily net value +4.2 million, 30 days still −389 million, only recovered 1.1%.
Contrary evidence two: at 17:00 and 20:00 two touches near 80,560, both pushed back.
79,377.7 has been touched twice today, on the third touch, the long side paying rent will leave first.
If broken, watch 79,220; if 1H close stands above 81,200, consider me wrong. Window until 10-27 20:00.
Liquidation stopped, direction not stopped: what stopped are others' stop losses, what moves is the long side's rent. Personal review, not advice.
Will 79,377.7 break first, or will 81,200 arrive first?
$BTC #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek$LINK
Oracles have a wide range of uses, so why does it still underperform BTC?
In this morning's spot snapshot, LINK's 24-hour price change was -2.37%, ranging between 11.262 and 11.639 USDT.
Partnerships and adoption are just the starting point; actual fees, settlement mechanisms, and token demand ultimately determine whether value can be retained. A short-term decline does not prove business failure, nor can it be automatically offset by the business narrative.
If net fees and actual token usage both improve, the valuation will have stronger support; if only partnership headlines increase, expectations for premium should be limited. There has been a major breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the question of whether crude oil will fall soon has become clearer.
The negotiation window has reopened, breaking the deadlock of fighting while negotiating.
A partial humanitarian ceasefire has already been implemented in some areas.
In early November, the US, Ukraine, and Russia will continue trilateral talks.
Basically, the only unresolved issue is the territorial dispute.
There is a preliminary outlook for peace in the Russia-Ukraine talks, which brings hope for peace. This could lead to a correction in the crude oil premium, accounting for about 20%, since Russia is also a major oil exporter.
On the other hand, negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran are also underway.
The purpose of these talks is to prevent escalation of conflict and to pave the way for a conflict-ending agreement.
This accounts for a significant portion, at least 30%, as both are major crude oil exporters.
The last issue is the conflict between the US and Iran. As long as Iran is willing to give up uranium enrichment rights, I think there is no reason for conflict.
I have a feeling that crude oil will start to gradually correct, at most down to 96-95, most likely around 98-99, then start to warm up again, especially when Trump makes a statement.
During this period, Bitcoin should also warm up a bit, around 84,000-85,000.
This is one of our scenarios: short crude oil at 103 and exit at 96-97.
Start gradually shorting Bitcoin at 84,000, then look at the mid-term election as a long-term big short below 77,000.Today's capital flow interpretation: short-term recovery is evident, mid-term reversal is still premature. The current market focuses on short-term recovery signals and does not discuss mid-term trend reversal for now. Short-term funds have begun to flow back, but the mid-term withdrawal pace has not ended yet.
$BTC
Spot 4-hour net inflow: +$39.36 million
Futures 4-hour net inflow: +$127 million
Spot 24-hour net outflow: -$34.95 million
Futures 24-hour net outflow: -$118 million
Futures 30-day net outflow: -$7.82 billion
Short-term capital replenishment appears, mid-term selling pressure still exists.
$ETH
Spot 4-hour net inflow: +$24.24 million
Futures 4-hour net inflow: +$56.19 million
Spot 24-hour net outflow: -$45.33 million
Futures 24-hour net outflow: -$105 million
Futures 30-day net outflow: -$8.64 billion
The 30-day withdrawal scale exceeds BTC, overall capital structure is relatively weaker.
$SOL
Spot 24-hour net inflow: +$9.86 million
Futures 24-hour net inflow: +$10.58 million
Futures 30-day net outflow: -$2.05 billion
Short-term strength clearly leads BTC and ETH, spot shows signs of support, but long-term leveraged funds have not yet returned.
Comprehensive judgment
BTC and ETH show short-term recovery characteristics, SOL is relatively strong. The 4-hour dimension capital inflow has been confirmed, but the 24-hour and 30-day capital structures have not truly reversed yet. The current recommendation is to observe with light positions and not to actively go long for now. $BTC $ETH The real killer in the FOMC is never whether rates are cut or not!
This time, the focus of the October FOMC is not about whether rates will be cut, but the expectation gap is the real culprit behind the market crash!
Last time, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Powell immediately poured cold water on the market, killing the expectation of continued easing in December. BTC and ETH didn’t rise but fell, and a lot of leveraged longs were wiped out.
The logic is simple: BTC and ETH are high-risk assets. If the speech leans hawkish and signals that rates will remain high, real interest rates will rise, draining liquidity from the crypto market. BTC will bear the pressure first, while ETH, being more elastic, will fall much harder; conversely, if the statement paves the way for future rate cuts, funds will be willing to embrace risk, BTC will hold its ground, and ETH’s rebound will be stronger.
The market has already priced in the expectation of no rate change this time. The real bomb lies in the dot plot and the wording about inflation.
In the short term, around the FOMC, BTC will fluctuate around key whole number levels, with ETH following and experiencing even more intense volatility. Looking further out, the market ultimately depends on USD liquidity, ETF fund flows, and the sentiment of the US tech stock market.
A practical reminder for everyone: during this time window, definitely reduce leverage and trim positions. Wait for the news to land, read the signals clearly before making moves, and don’t bet on direction prematurely. $SNDK #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
Strategy hasn't increased Bitcoin holdings in the past week; to put it simply, it just hasn't continued buying, not that it sold what it already had. I see some people making it sound like it's preparing to retreat, which feels exaggerated. To calculate, fewer buy orders and more sell orders are two different things. Bitcoin is still hovering in place, but the comment section has already arranged its next move—this is way too hasty.Time flies so fast; in the blink of an eye, it's the end of October, and Europe has already entered winter time. It reminds me of the beginning of the year, in March, except that back then it was the transition from winter time to summer time. That was when I just started getting into trading, and now it's been more than half a year. I really want to have a good talk about my journey, about my talent, my abilities, and of course, my struggles. But if I start writing, I might not be able to stop. Maybe one night I'll share my experiences, but before that, let's talk about the market. The reason I haven't done any pre-market analysis on US stocks these days is partly because the trend is relatively predictable—extremely narrow fluctuations with a dip near 79,500, which has been my consistent view during this period; on the other hand, at this level, whether to short or go long is still debatable and requires more time to observe market sentiment and the game of forces. Although the market seems boring from the outcome, the underlying changes in capital structure and data are worth analyzing, and indeed, some interesting data have appeared that I want to share with everyone. Since Thursday's failed rally, the internal capital structure of the market has already begun to show some degree of change or even transformation. The capital structure on the spot side is clear: a full retreat. Several attempts to test the bottom saw passive buying support, but active buying was always missing, especially during the sideways consolidation after the bottom test. Instead, on the contract side, after each drop, there was a certain degree of bottom-fishing capital, but overall, the price rebounds after these drops were largely due to short covering. Here I want toThis morning, BTC dropped below 80,000 for a few hours; I guess quite a few people held through it. The lowest point was 79,323, but by evening it was back above 80,000.
I checked BTC perpetual contracts on OKX to see who was moving the market. By position size, large accounts were the most biased toward short positions around 11 AM, which coincided exactly with the drop. By evening, this ratio had reverted to what it was around 6 AM. The number of small accounts going long also roughly returned to the morning level.
Positions themselves didn’t withdraw at all; the open interest increased by over 1,200 contracts compared to the morning.
So this morning’s drop was a short bias from large accounts, which they pulled back in the evening. The ETF won’t have new data until the US market opens tonight, so it’s not to blame yet. The players are still in the game; once you see who’s moving, you won’t be led around by this move.
If large accounts again bias as short as they did this morning by noon tomorrow, I’ll admit I was wrong. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC has fallen back to $80,300, and many are asking: why is the early bull phase still dropping? The early bull phase never equals the main uptrend. The early bull phase is a stage where demand gradually strengthens, and pullbacks, fluctuations, and turnover are unavoidable.
First, let's look at this year's rotation of returns. According to Glassnode data, the cross-asset champion for 2026 has changed three times: gold and silver led in Q1, US stocks took over from spring to July, and recently, BTC has ranked first in rolling 60-day returns for about 10 weeks. The sequence changed three times, indicating money is moving back and forth between assets, not in a straight line.
But leading doesn't mean only rising. The spot trading volume of tokenized gold on exchanges has dropped from its February peak to about 20%. The heat around gold has cooled, but this doesn't prove that money directly moved into BTC; don't confuse correlation with causation.
What really needs attention is a price range: $80,000 to $81,500. Glassnode shows that this area holds the average cost of US spot ETFs and some corporate treasuries. BTC is currently sitting on the cost line of a group of important holders, and their actions will determine how the fluctuations proceed.
My judgment: the bear market is over, the early bull phase is unfolding, but the structure remains complex. Holding $80,000 with buyers stepping in is necessary for a chance to challenge the supply zone between $85,000 and $87,500; if the daily chart breaks below, watch out for a test of $77,600.
The key to the early bull phase is not that it doesn't fall, but that there are buyers after the fall.The US spot Bitcoin ETF "turned positive" this week, but looking closely at the structure, it's a bit twisted 😅
According to Farside, as of the week ending October 23, the $BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about +$301.2 million, ending two consecutive weeks of net outflows. Most of the inflow was almost entirely from BlackRock's IBIT (about +$565.7 million), while other Bitcoin funds combined had a net outflow of about $264.5 million. In the same week, the Ethereum ETF had about -$220.7 million; looking only at Friday, October 23, the Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of about $137.9 million that day.
My understanding: a weekly positive doesn't mean a full recovery; it's more that the leading products are holding up while the tail end is still bleeding. Next week, I will watch whether IBIT continues to have net inflows and when the non-IBIT group stops outflowing.
Do you believe the "IBIT dominance" can hold on much longer, or do you wait for the entire line to turn positive before considering it a true inflow?
Personal opinion, not investment advice
$BTC $ETHThey sold coins until only 325 freely movable ones remained, then turned around and used $65 million to buy a 15-year lease.
Bitcoin treasury company Empery Digital, the name is somewhat misleading.
At the end of July, they sold 1,400 coins for $87.1 million, cutting nearly half of their holdings; at the beginning of August, they sold another 1,635 coins, bringing in $102.2 million 💸
Total holdings left are 1,279 coins, with 954 coins pledged for $35 million in debt, leaving only 325 freely movable coins. The NAV board that only calculated by coin price was also removed.
Now they are using $65 million to buy a quarter stake in an AI data center in the U.S. Midwest, with 150 megawatts of power, a 15-year triple net lease, and potential payments of $1 billion. Their quarter stake corresponds to over $440 million.
$65 million for 15 years and $440 million sounds like nearly 7 times. But the rent won't start until early next year, the formal lease hasn't been signed yet, and the tenant must have investment-grade credit.
They sold nearly 2,000 coins to get cash, which they invested into a contract that will collect rent for 15 years. Running a small company, I look at both input-output and cash flow. Bitmine disclosed on October 26 that it increased its holdings by 10,452 $ETH last week, holding a total of 6,051,933 $ETH as of October 25, accounting for 4.95% of the total supply, having completed about 99% of its 5% holding target.
My judgment: This is somewhat positive for demand, but you can't equate position size with business performance. Increasing holdings brings actual demand, but book assets do not equal cash flow available for payments; the more concentrated the holdings, the greater the impact of price fluctuations on the balance sheet. Being close to the target only shows execution is on point, but it doesn't prove the input-output is cost-effective.
If I were looking at the business, I would first ask if the risk reserve fund is sufficient. If future cash expenditures need to be covered by selling coins, then in a bad market, it could become passive — this is my speculation. Friends in business, how would you set a cash reserve baseline for such concentrated holdings? #AWS computing power demand is booming, what are the highlights of Amazon's Q3 earnings?
The leader has something to say
Amazon announced its Q3 earnings on October 29. CEO Jassy said AWS's computing capacity for 2026 is already sold out, most of 2027 is pre-booked, and a significant portion of 2028 is also reserved. AI computing power demand has reached an extreme peak. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I believe the key to this earnings report is not revenue, but profit margin and cash flow. Selling out computing power is good, but to expand capacity, huge capital expenditures are required. The market's biggest fear now is this kind of bottomless money burn. If high investments crush profit margins and free cash flow, even if AWS grows fast, the funds will vote with their feet. This is the same dilemma Meta and Microsoft faced before.
On the market front, AMZN rose slightly by 0.61%, xAMZN up 0.47%. The market has expectations and is waiting for the earnings disclosure.
This indirectly diverts funds from crypto. Tech giants continue to attract money for infrastructure, while Bitcoin lacks external increments. In the short term, it still depends on macro factors, oil prices, and the FOMC.
Last night Bitcoin took a waterfall drop, now watching if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the fall, just set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop losses set, good luck.BTC is repeatedly rubbing between 79,400 and 80,500, ETH is hovering around 2,295–2,335, and the market looks exactly like a delivery rider circling downstairs while you wait for your takeout—you know they're almost there, but they just won't come up.
Big clients are very divided. On one side, 40 newly created wallets have withdrawn 9,458 BTC, worth about 771 million USD, showing a "You panic, I'll stash it first" attitude. On the other side, a certain whale holds nearly 400 million USD in long positions hanging on the liquidation line; ETH liquidation price is 2,181, last night’s low was 2,282, just 30 USD away from needing an emergency margin top-up. Big clients have their own struggles. The long-short ratio for large holders is 0.77, neutral on longs, but silently shifting half a step toward shorts. $ETH
The most uncomfortable are retail investors. ETH long-short ratio is 2.46, with stubbornly unclean long exposure; 76.68% of all accounts are long. When it drops, they see opportunity; when it rebounds, they think it’s not high enough; neither adding nor cutting is right—they’re stuck in the middle like being caught in the subway doors during rush hour. $BTC
In conclusion: big clients are quietly switching pockets, while retail investors refuse to get off the bus. The bus is too heavy; the main force won’t kindly pull it up. Only when the longs give up grinding will the bottom be in sight. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SAMSUNG earned two and a half times the money in one quarter compared to the entire last year. The stock price is 35% lower than in June.
$SKHYNIX expects an operating profit of 77 trillion KRW this quarter, with the stock price halved since June. $SNDK is even more extreme, having quadrupled over the year but halved since June, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17. Thirteen analysts have target prices, and the lowest target is still 25% higher than the current price.
Despite all this, the earnings reports still need to be watched.
What to look for? How much HBM4 can be shipped, how many long-term contracts have been signed, and whether the profits will be shared. No one cares about the numbers on the income statement—Q4 DRAM up 20%, HBM up more than double next year, next year's capacity sold out—these have long been known. Known information is not news.
Hynix's conference call is on the 28th, SanDisk and Samsung on the 29th. The earnings reports themselves aren't much to see; the 20-minute Q&A session is somewhat useful.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Agree with Brother Kuang Yida's judgment, the basic pricing for October is basically done, with little suspense.
The December rate hike expectation has already reached 68.9%, with most of the hawkish sentiment digested. On Thursday, the focus is on the wording: a hawkish tone could push down to 79,000; if it falls short of expectations, shorts may cover and push up to 81,000.
BTC is consolidating with low volume between 79,500-80,000, the first wave of the decision night rally is likely a fake move to lure longs and shorts, chasing orders can easily get stopped out.
ETH continues to weaken, rebounds can only follow the trend; ZEC bulls are holding the fee rate firmly, just waiting for either reluctance to sell or a stampede to decide the outcome.
My strategy: stay put within the range, do not chase shorts below 79,000, consider after a volume breakout and stable hold above 81,000.
Any breakout without volume is treated as a false breakout.
Decision night tonight, are you ready to act or just watch the show?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Why is CORE considered the most elastic BTCFi asset in this bull market? The data reveals the truth
The biggest dividend in the BTCFi sector is awakening the dormant Bitcoin liquidity. A large amount of BTC is idle for the long term with no yield, while Core's Satoshi Plus consensus supports non-custodial native BTC staking. Users' BTC does not need to cross-chain or be custodied by a third party; it can be locked directly on the Bitcoin chain to participate in Core network security and earn CORE rewards. This mechanism is its most core differentiating advantage. From the perspective of odds, after continuous decline, CORE's market cap has significantly contracted, with pessimistic expectations largely priced in. Small market cap plus binding to a trillion-level BTC asset pool naturally brings extremely high elasticity. Other BTCFi assets in the sector (such as Stacks) have significantly higher circulating market caps. Given the same sector capital inflow, CORE theoretically has greater price appreciation potential. The dual staking mechanism is CORE's unique flywheel: to achieve higher BTC staking yields, users need to additionally stake CORE. Once BTCFi heats up, a large number of BTC holders entering the market seeking higher yields will continuously generate demand to buy and lock CORE, compressing circulating supply and amplifying upward elasticity. However, high elasticity does not guarantee a rise: continuous node withdrawals, SatPay delays, and lack of primary VC backing are the biggest risks. If the node exodus trend cannot be stopped, even if the BTCFi sector experiences a major rally, it may still fail to capture sector dividends, leading to high volatility.Samsung's profit is expected to increase nearly 8 times, and I looked at this number twice. The forecast only gave a total figure without breaking down the segments. The storage segment had a poor base last year, so the profit climbing out of the pit naturally results in a large multiple. When we talked about SK Hynix last time, we mentioned that HBM4 has already been supplied in batches in the first half of the year, with Nvidia still the main customer. The memory manufacturers really received money this round, but how much they received and the structure of it will have to wait for the financial report to be revealed.
Also, a high multiple does not equal exceeding expectations. The market had already factored in the price increase; what will really change the tone is the guidance: whether DRAM contract prices can continue to rise and what the HBM capacity will look like next year.
I am stuck on one question myself: out of this 8 times increase, how much is due to price hikes and how much is because shipment volume truly recovered. Without separating these two, I don't know how to characterize it, and thus cannot judge whether the financial report will confirm the good news or if the good news has already been fully priced in.
Once the full financial report is released, first look at how much the operating profit of the storage segment accounts for in the total, and whether it matches this expected increase.
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC
📊 ZEC 24h Liquidation Data Analysis: Shorts Washed Out, Bulls Control the Market
ZEC Liquidation Characteristics: Rare "Shorts Squeezing Longs"
Total 24h Liquidations: 5.4015 million
Short Liquidations: 3.0985 million (about 57%)
Long Liquidations: $2.303 million
Core Signal: Unlike ETH and BTC which mainly clear longs, ZEC shows a clear dominance of short liquidations. This means a large number of short sellers were forced to close positions (buy back) during the price rise, creating strong "short squeeze" upward momentum
Market Comparison: Clear Capital Preference
ETH/BTC: Long liquidations far exceed shorts (about 2:1), indicating mainstream coins are consolidating at highs with more profit-taking or stop-loss among bulls.
ZEC/NEAR: The red blocks represent severe short losses, indicating capital is attacking the short defenses of these coins, showing a stronger trendMarket cap only 20 million, yet tied to the trillion-level BTC ecosystem: The valuation recovery logic of CORE
The total market cap of BTC is huge, but the vast majority of BTC is long-term idle. The core story of the BTCFi track is to awaken the dormant BTC liquidity, which is also the fundamental narrative basis for Core DAO's valuation recovery. Currently, CORE's market cap has experienced a significant pullback, and a large part of the pessimistic expectations are already priced into the coin price. From an odds perspective, once the track sees a market rally, CORE, which has BTC staking consensus, has very high valuation elasticity.
There are three main triggers for valuation recovery: First, the overall heat of the BTCFi track warms up, and funds look for BTC staking leading targets; second, the scale of on-chain staked BTC continues to rise, and real on-chain fee income is realized, turning the narrative of "fee buyback of CORE" gradually into real cash flow; third, the trend of node exit is stopped, network security expectations are restored, dispelling market concerns about "soft exit."
However, there are huge obstacles to valuation recovery: the project lacks primary market VC chips as ballast, SatPay is continuously delayed, the partner Mobilum has weak qualifications and cannot quickly bring the expected payment business cash flow, and the risk of continuous withdrawal of independent validators remains unresolved. The track space is at the trillion level, but whether the project itself can capture this dividend is the biggest uncertainty for valuation recovery. The trillion-level BTC ecosystem is the imagination space, while nodes, income, and product implementation are the decisive conditions for whether valuation recovery can be realized.A single sharp drop pierced through 78,000, ETH couldn't even hold 2,100. Is it time to chase the rally or to accumulate during the shakeout? When you saw that sharp drop, did your hand tremble? My first reaction watching the market wasn't panic, but a sense that the rhythm had changed. BTC was pierced below 78,000 by a single sharp drop, ETH couldn't even stabilize above 2,100, with $840 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 127,000 people forced out, and the largest single liquidation of $28.49 million happened on ETH, with over 90% being long positions. This is not an ordinary correction; it's a targeted liquidation aimed at the leveraged structure. What concerns me more than the drop is the composition of the liquidations. Over 90% were longs being swept out, indicating that the previous bullish positions were too densely and uniformly stacked. The crowding of longs in the derivatives market has reached a level where even a slight push triggers a chain reaction of liquidations. In this structure, the price doesn't need much real selling pressure; just breaking through a few key levels causes forced liquidations to push the price down further. So that sharp drop looks more like a liquidity hunt rather than a fundamental shift. The bullish scenario lies here: after the leverage is cleared, the market is lighter, floating supply decreases. If BTC can quickly reclaim above 78,000 and ETH can stand back above 2,100, this shakeout actually leaves room for what follows, and sentiment recovery could be faster than expected. But the risks are also clear—longs have just been heavily hit, confidence recovery takes time, and if the rebound is on low volume and fails to reclaim key levels, it means this is just a downward consolidation. Altcoins will suffer even more, and risk appetite will further contract. I$HYPE and $ZEC have always been market barometers in my view. Previously, when Bitcoin was at 87,000, HYPE and ZEC were also the first to weaken. HYPE peaked at 98 and then remained weak in consolidation, while ZEC bottomed near 1700 and then directly broke below the consolidation range. Later, BTC also started to top out and then dropped to around 80,000. Currently, HYPE and ZEC are showing signs of a short-term bottom pullback, especially ZEC, which is now seeing capital support.
Of course, this is not unique to this market cycle. In several previous cycles, whether it was a rebound in a bear market or a pullback in a bull market, HYPE and ZEC would move ahead of BTC in signaling direction. The major holders of these two coins have basically been 100% accurate in judging the overall market trend, making them important references for predicting upcoming market movements.