PCE data is comprehensively below expectations, initially positive for a while
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
┈➤PCE is comprehensively below expectations
◆ Core PCE annual rate for August is 3%, below expectations
◆ Monthly rate is 0.2%, below expectations but higher than the previous value (0.1%);
◆ Q2 data is 3.3%, below expectations and previous value. The final GDP price index is 6.3%, also below expectations and previous value. Conclusions calculated by both metrics are consistent, both are final values with relatively high accuracy.
┈➤ Personal consumption expenditure is stronger
◆ August personal spending monthly rate is 0.9%, exceeding the expected 0.8%, and significantly higher than the previous value (0.1%)
◆ Q2 personal real consumption expenditure quarterly rate is 3.8%, exceeding expectations and previous value of 3.4%.
◆ Personal income monthly rate is 0.2%, below expectations (0.4%) and below previous value (0.3%).
┈➤ GDP growth is obvious
Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 2.2%, significantly exceeding expectations and previous value (1.5%).
┈➤ Final remarks
Data contradiction: consumption is strong, but why is CPI still declining?
Q2 may have had oil prices lower than Q1, but the average oil price in August is higher than July. It is uncertain if this is a statistical error, which is why Feng brother said "initially positive for a while"; subsequent data adjustments are uncertain.
Combined with high oil prices in September and good GDP growth, this also reduces resistance to rate hikes.
Overall, initially positive for a while, then wait for other data to decide!
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