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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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数据调整有用吗?短期市场反应来看,有用,但是真正能解决危机吗?还需要再等等市场反应 今晚PCE数据口径调整大幅下修之后,市场反应不错,#Bitcoin率先发力,1小时级别直接突破85,000,美股上涨,美债2Y 10Y 30Y收益率同步下降 短期来看,修改数据口径有用,虽然我认为假,但是不重要,一个假话可以说一辈子就成了真话,既然现在市场相信,那么证明数据修正有用 但是市场是否完全相信,此时还不能下定论,数据口径的修改减缓了10月加息的概率,将概率削弱至34.9%,但是并未完全打消12月加息预期,目前12与加息概率提升为59.4%,这一点是成功的 其次,美股等风险资产的表现不错,说明数据短期对提振市场起效,债市端收益率集体下降同样起效,不过可以看到,2Y收益率下降幅度更大,反观长债端10Y 30Y在数据公布后,短期下挫,但是随机继续上涨 单从抑制长债抛售的角度来看,今晚的数据修正显然作用没那么大,长债端依旧对内生通胀信心不足,并且夹杂着财政供给等关键问题,如果长债端无法减缓抛售,市场潜在风险依旧存在!这是需要警惕的地方!#10月加息预期回落,今晚PCE成关键
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Not enough data? Manually adjusting to make up for it? Damn! I really can't help but curse!
Not enough data? Artificial adjustments to make up for it? Damn! I really can't help but curse! Tonight's August PCE data release, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis took advantage of the annual data revision to directly revise data back to Q1 2021, with an overall downward revision of PCE, lowering the overall U.S. core inflation data by one level. This also caused the August core PCE year-over-year to record 3%, but it is basically the same as the previous value, not a decrease in inflation. #10月加息预期回落,今晚PCE成关键 The most watched core PCE month-over-month recorded 0.2%, and since the previous month's rate was revised down to 0.1%, the data is just slightly higher than the previous value but lower than expected. Currently, this set of data fits the inflation stickiness combination, but overall inflation has cooled due to data revisions. Combined with the small nonfarm payroll data, it means the Fed has no reason to continue raising rates in October, and rate hike expectations can be postponed. There is another strange set of data: consumption rose from 0.1% in July to 0.9% in August, and more subtly, consumption increased but income did not? So what does this set of data want to tell the market tonight? I believe the data "modified" by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis wants to tell the market that inflation is not as scary as the market imagines, and U.S. consumers have strong confidence in the economy, willing to consume heavily even without wage growth! But the question is, do Americans themselves believe this conclusion? Is U.S. inflation really not that worrisome? Is consumption momentum really that strong? Tonight's data makes me believe two things even more: 1, Wash or Trump or

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