Not enough data? Manually adjusting to make up for it? Damn! I really can't help but curse!
Not enough data? Artificial adjustments to make up for it? Damn! I really can't help but curse! Tonight's August PCE data release, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis took advantage of the annual data revision to directly revise data back to Q1 2021, with an overall downward revision of PCE, lowering the overall U.S. core inflation data by one level. This also caused the August core PCE year-over-year to record 3%, but it is basically the same as the previous value, not a decrease in inflation. #10月加息预期回落,今晚PCE成关键 The most watched core PCE month-over-month recorded 0.2%, and since the previous month's rate was revised down to 0.1%, the data is just slightly higher than the previous value but lower than expected. Currently, this set of data fits the inflation stickiness combination, but overall inflation has cooled due to data revisions. Combined with the small nonfarm payroll data, it means the Fed has no reason to continue raising rates in October, and rate hike expectations can be postponed. There is another strange set of data: consumption rose from 0.1% in July to 0.9% in August, and more subtly, consumption increased but income did not? So what does this set of data want to tell the market tonight? I believe the data "modified" by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis wants to tell the market that inflation is not as scary as the market imagines, and U.S. consumers have strong confidence in the economy, willing to consume heavily even without wage growth! But the question is, do Americans themselves believe this conclusion? Is U.S. inflation really not that worrisome? Is consumption momentum really that strong? Tonight's data makes me believe two things even more: 1, Wash or Trump or
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