Post
wesley教授
Influential Creator
美油一夜跌4%，美国又要放4000万桶储备，不少人条件反射"地缘缓和=风险资产利好"。但真正该盯的是30Y美债还在5.6%创新高。这一轮战争从来不是被定价成避险，是被定价成通胀→加息。油跌一点、通胀降温是好事，可只要长端利率不掉头，$BTC 和黄金就很难同时站稳。别拿老剧本套新盘面——"打仗利多币"那套逻辑，这两年早就失效了。你们现在还信避险叙事吗？
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