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Producer prices just hit 5.4% year-over-year. The Fed decision is in five days. August PPI set the stage: · Headline +0.4% MoM, with annual inflation rising to 5.4% · Final demand goods +1.1%, led by a 24.1% monthly jump in diesel · Core PPI +0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast · Annual core PPI still at 4.6%, well above the Fed's 2% target After the print, September hike odds rose sharply, with some trackers near 73%-74%. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed toward 5%. At Jackson Hole, Chair Warsh said underlying inflation trends had not "meaningfully improved" and stepped back from forward guidance. A hot CPI print would make a hold harder to explain. The market knows it. The ECB moved the same day, hiking 25bps to 2.5%, with Lagarde calling the decision a "no-brainer." The real signal was in the forecasts: 2027 core inflation was revised up to 2.6% before easing in 2028. This is not just an energy story. Broader price pressure is building on both sides of the Atlantic. Friday's CPI is the last major inflation print before the Sept. 16 Fed decision. Consensus sits around +0.4% MoM and 3.3%-3.4% YoY, with core expected at +0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY. A hot PCE-relevant surprise would make the September hike case much harder to push back against. BTC has pulled back into the mid-$76K area after repeatedly stalling near the 50-week moving average around $81K. One number at 8:30AM ET could decide whether the range stabilizes or breaks lower. Which matters more for BTC this week: CPI, yields, or the Fed's reaction function? #PPIHotCPINext #US10YearYieldsNear5%