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September 7th–September 13th Global Macro Guidance: The Final Judgment on Inflation! Oil Prices Near $100, US, Europe, and Japan Enter the "Interest Rate Hike Resonance Week" Compared to the complex macro environment of previous weeks, this week's macro theme is very simple and clear. Last week focused on whether employment could block the September rate hike, while this week focuses on whether inflation data will lock in the expectation of a September rate hike. This week's macro logic chain: US-Iran conflict → Crude oil → Global inflation → Central banks of US, Europe, and Japan → Global interest rates → Liquidity → Risk assets. 1. August CPI and PPI data will determine whether the expectation of a September rate hike is locked in! Before last week's employment data, the market was watching if weak employment could reduce the probability of a September rate hike, but the data released was very strong employment data, which makes this week's logic easier to attack and defend. After the strong non-farm payrolls, the probability of a September rate hike returned to 60%, increasing the probability but not completely locking it in. This week's inflation data will determine whether it hands the FED a knife—whether inflation further supports a rate hike. A 70% probability of a September rate hike will make the market start pricing in the hike, 80% basically locks it in, and market pricing becomes more obvious. Once the probability reaches 90%, it means expectations are completely locked in, and the market will directly price in the rate hike. This Thursday, August PPI will be released, and at noon, August CPI. The core focus is the CPI data. According to current expectations, a PPI higher than the previous value means supply-side inflation is rising, and if August CPI rises month-on-month as expected, it will further increase the probability of a rate hike. Additionally, detailed data will look at how strong the secondary transmission of energy to inflation is, especially if high oil