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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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#Bitcoin ETF 数据周五已经出现明显净流入,而加密主流资金依旧保持净流入,所以短期的价格回调在数据方面也得到了一部分验证 接下来,下周依旧是优先看ETF 流动数据是否净流出,其次看加密资金如果两方面都出现净流出,盘面走弱基本上就是数据验证回调开启 目前 #BTC 虽然处于小时级别区间震荡暂时企稳,但是未来三天有效支撑还是要看74,200附近是否会有效跌破,跌破回调趋势二次确认,继续看价格回归底部区间 日线趋势上来看,本次反弹高点不破日线前高82,600如果直接确认开始回调,那么市场信心显然会被打击到,58,000-60,000附近的压力很大 如果74,200可以得到支撑,价格再次冲高破一下日线前高82,600,后续回调市场信心会更好,也是我认为对后市最乐观的走势 目前判断BTC短中期趋势要参考宏观/政策+数据(ETF/资金)+盘面基础综合判断, 如果未来2周 BTC继续保持74,200上方的区间震荡,那么转折点很有可能就是9月15日的美国参议院《清晰法案》投票,法案能否通过,将会让BTC做出一个短期方向选择。#BTC高位多空拉锯,黄金联动增强
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
#Bitcoin surged and then pulled back on Friday. As the price fell, does the data confirm the price trend? First, looking at ETF data: net inflows were 232.2 million on Wednesday, 242.3 million on Thursday, and a net outflow of 201.9 million on Friday. It is clear that starting Wednesday, ETF net inflows fell below the 300-500 million range, showing a slowdown in net inflows. Second, on Friday, the shift from net inflow to net outflow indicates that funds began to exit initially. According to ETF data, the net outflow mainly came from IBIT, which highlights the drawback I previously mentioned about ETF net inflows overly relying on a single channel. When fund flows are too concentrated in one channel, buying power does not spread, making optimistic sentiment hard to sustain. In the crypto market data, trading volume continues to decline, returning to the usual low levels before last week's short-term rally. Although funds still maintain net inflows, compared to ETF data, crypto fund liquidity lacks intuitive judgment. Next week, the focus will be on observing ETF and crypto fund flows. If ETF data continues to show net outflows, it will confirm the current downward price trend. Moreover, if mainstream crypto funds like USDT and USDC also show net outflows, the correction trend will become even more certain! #BTC高位多空拉锯,黄金联动增强

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