Публикация

$SNDK — THE LONG-TERM TARGET MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. 👀 I’m becoming more cautious about $SNDK’s long-term valuation. Compared with DRAM, NAND has a lower barrier to entry, capacity can be expanded more quickly, and performance improvements tend to happen faster. That makes it harder to sustain extremely high margins for a long period. While much of the recent attention has focused on ChangXin, I think Yangtze Memory Technologies is actually a more direct competitor for SNDK on the NAND side. Yangtze’s expansion has been extremely aggressive, with an estimated average annual growth rate of around 50%. Kioxia, by comparison, has been relatively conservative with capacity expansion. Meanwhile, SK Hynix has restarted the second phase of its Dalian expansion, adding further NAND capacity. The competitive landscape is also important. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all operate across both NAND and DRAM, but they are increasingly directing CapEx toward DRAM, where barriers to entry and economic value are generally higher. Meanwhile, SNDK and Yangtze are primarily focused on NAND. That creates a potential problem: if Yangtze continues expanding aggressively while Kioxia remains more disciplined, and the performance gap between competing products isn't particularly large, it becomes difficult to assume that SNDK can maintain exceptionally high gross margins indefinitely. According to institutional forecasts and my own AI-assisted research, Q2 2027 could potentially be a point where NAND pricing starts to reverse and supply-demand conditions move closer to balance. There are already signs of how much prices have moved from the consumer side: 💾 Memory-stick prices: roughly 3–4× higher 💽 SSD storage prices: roughly 2× higher The real question now isn't whether NAND prices can rise further. It's how long the current supply-demand imbalance can last before new capacity starts catching up. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU $KIOXIA #WeakConsumptionFedSplit #OpenAIAnthropicRace