Publier

The latest inflation mix weakens the case for urgency, but it does not settle the September debate. July PPI slowed to 4.7% YoY, core PPI eased to 4.2%, and monthly gains came in below forecasts. CPI and core CPI also moderated, while jobless claims rose to 209,000. My read: the key market variable is now less the direction of inflation than the Fed’s confidence in its persistence. With Hammack favoring higher rates and Barkin noting that many see policy as restrictive enough, shifting expectations could keep the dollar, Treasury yields, gold and BTC sensitive to each new data point. Not advice, just analysis. #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit