Innlegg

Let's talk about the non-agricultural data. After reading it, I was shocked and couldn't speak for a long time. - 23,000, expected to be + 80,000, a difference of 100,000. 5 The figures for June and June were revised down by 103,000. In the first two months, I made 100,000 yuan, but this month it turned negative. The cooling speed of the job market is quite rapid. (The power of capital is still too strong) But the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Jobs are shrinking and unemployment is falling, and these two numbers are a confusing signal. Wage growth has also declined, with a month-on-month growth rate of only 0.1%. After the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September increased from over 50% to around 44%. The market feels that the Fed can't increase. Then the reaction on the market is very interesting, not a general rise, but a split. $XAU broke through $4370, and futures closed at $4399.7, surpassing the 4400 level. Weak employment → interest rate hikes and cooling → weak US dollar → rising gold, this chain runs through. $SPCX I've been watching for the past two days. On the day of the lifting of the lockdown, it rose by 6%, and the non-farm payrolls surged by 15.83%, closing at $133.11. From near 105 to 133, the cumulative increase in two days is about 23%. The negative impact of the lifting of the lock-up has been digested, the shorts are covering, the expectation of interest rate cut is also pushing, the rise is too strong, I am the happiest 😂 SanDisk $SNDK plummeted from 1326 to around 1200 last night, closing down 3.68%. Weak non-farm data → Decreased expectations of interest rate hikes → High-valued growth stocks should benefit, but SanDisk has been hit. The previous financial report exceeded expectations and fell by 7%. This time, the non-farm benefits did not recover, indicating that the valuation of AI storage has not been fully digested. Seagate fell more than 10%, Western Digital fell more than 5%,$BTC