Long post on $APE, my thoughts in 1 place. I think it's worth a read:
The first step to fix a problem is to find the problem. Cant just blame Staking and VC unlocks as the only reason for $APE underperforming. $APE has 11 straight days of red candles on APE/ETH, just after a major catalysts like Nexus launch. In a 1 year scale, this chart is even more brutal. Irrespective of bullish / bearish sentiment, Apecoin is underperforming the market.
Data points - $APE is:
- 70% down since before Apechain
- 90% down since local top post Apechain
- 50% down since Apefest a month back
Some observations:
- $APE has very low social media buzz. Search for $APE on X and see the results. Compare it to tokens doing relatively well (eg, $HYPE or $SPX)
- Apechain and Apecoin X accounts entire attention has largely been on Nexus in last few weeks. While this is understandable given the Nexus launch, but supporting other apps / projects and helping them flourish will draw more volume & interest. Otherside runs on Apechain, but should Apechain just run on Otherside?
- A lot of talk on $APE going deflationary and "big things" / "redacted" tease with no meaningful details is counterproductive. A clear communication goes a long way in winning community trust (example $REKT with its announcement of token buyback with 10% of revenue generated)
- Finally on staking and VC unlocks -the staking and VC unlock recipients wont sell if they feel the token is undervalued. That they continue to sell is an indicator in itself
Last bit of thought, tokens (NFTs and ERC-20) are financial indicators of a brand's strength. The token value appreciates as Brand becomes bigger. Otherside has multiple associated tokens - Deeds (100k of them), Koda, $APE and $DEEDSTR. Which means, the liquidity will be fractured even when Otherside does well. How $APE attracts more liquidity and focus will be a key challenge for the team.
A fully functional chain, with a marquee dApp like Otherside, and thousands of active users (not TGE farmers) has no business sitting at 200 Mil MCap. But it requires some real problem solving to pull it back up. Just blaming it on the market and Staking / VC emission is a rather lazy approach to a complex problem.
Action points
- check how much is left from the treasury
- show where the money went
- f1 partnership still active?
- how long does apeco have runway (arbitrum said they will carry the cost for the first 1 or 2 years, can’t remember)
- worst case market tells we need new leadership team, now we have centralised approach so we can act fast
I think market added a lot to the downside, so don’t see exactly the same like nova but it’s only red monthly candles - since dao closed so from somewhere needs to be the massive and permanent selling.
Better is also to watch the chart against eth and not against $ where it also still looses value.
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