I guess everyone is hoping for an interest rate cut in September. The U.S. economy is quite stable right now, and the unemployment rate is low, which is good for risk markets.
Then let the market have another wave. Around early next year, news of a recession will start to spread. Then let the market drop a bit, so everyone can buy the dip.
Then in the second half of next year, after the National Day holiday, that’s when the real economic recovery will begin. That’s when the real liquidity flood and good market conditions will start...
This script sounds good, right? 🤣 $BTC
Of course, be careful ⚠️ An interest rate cut is a good thing, but it doesn't mean a skyrocketing increase. Let's watch and see.
这应该是很多小伙伴的想法，虽然很多小伙伴说美联储就是主席能决定，但是从点阵图和会议纪要的发言来看，虽然美联储内部是有“党派纷争”的，但对于美联储的职责还是挺有责任感的。
所以即便是鲍威尔换成了川普的人，但也未必能做到只手遮天，而且即便是只手遮天了，在美国确实通胀继续上升的情况下，还是会走回紧缩的路线。
其次，降息我们在2023年和2024年聊过很多，防御式降息和亡羊补牢式的降息，前者在美国经济没有出现衰退的情况下确实能促进投资者的风险偏好，而后者是因为经济出现了问题而降息，自然不会利于风险市场。
如果九月开始降息，并且美国经济还是挺稳定的，失业率也较低，那就属于前者，对风险市场来说是好事。但也就是暂时的。毕竟现在 4.5% 的利率，后边需要降得还多了去了。
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