Market Viewpoint
After testing the key area of 108366, the market has declined. Currently, it is either in a triangular convergence or the second test is concluding before reaching the previous high.
In the market viewpoint from the day before yesterday, it was stated that if Monday did not break below 102700, it would confirm a bottom and rebound, with the upper target being the order block gap at 108366. After the market filled the gap on Tuesday morning, it declined again due to news.
On Tuesday night, Bitcoin dipped to the 103400 range but did not break below it and has since recovered, currently operating in the 104-105 range.
The subsequent movements will provide three predictions:
First, the triangular convergence continues, with Bitcoin neither breaking the diagonal support nor breaking through the upper resistance, continuing to oscillate in the narrow range of 108-104 before determining a direction.
Second, it is considered that the "second test" at the horizontal level has ended, and the market continues to test the previous high in the 110,000-112,000 range. Because the key position at 103 is holding, this expectation has emerged.
Third, it could directly break below and test the 98 and below range. This range will provide support before rebounding upwards.
Overall, our short-term judgment on the top at 108366 on Monday was correct, and choosing to take profits on Bitcoin long positions in a timely manner was also correct. However, after reaching 108366, I subjectively believed it should fluctuate above the support at 106 rather than break below, but this idea has now been falsified. Today, Wednesday, the FOMC will provide assistance, and we will observe the conclusions given by the FOMC and the dot plot to see which direction the market will move.
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