Original title: "Attack on Pump.fun 4 Billion Valuation Coins, but the Depleted Market is Waiting for a Savior"

Original Source: Deep Tide TechFlow

Meme continues, but the market's enthusiasm seems to have reached the end of its strength. While there are memes being launched every day, how long has it been since you've seen a new phenomenal golden dog compared to last year?

Meme can't, but that doesn't seem to affect the Meme launch platform's all the way. On June 4, Blockworks reported that Pump.fun plans to issue a coin, raise $1 billion at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion, and sell about 25% of the token. The coin issuance is open to public and private investors, and it is rumoured that it may be accompanied by an airdrop, and the token may be called "$PUMP", but the specific details have not yet surfaced.

Although Pump.fun officials have not responded to confirm the authenticity of this coin issuance plan, as a comparison, Circle, the issuer behind the stablecoin USDC, is seeking an IPO on the US stock market, and its public valuation is only $7.2 billion.

At the moment, the market's reaction to this news is starting to diverge. As soon as the news came out, the ALON (same name as Pump founder @a1lon_9) token on the Pump.fun rose by 102% at one point, and the logic of pure gambling continued.

Some people are optimistic about the Pump.fun's ability to absorb gold, and expect the token to bring dividends or governance dividends; Others scoffed, believing that the $4 billion valuation was outrageous and could not hide the intention of "cutting leeks". Frenzy and exhaustion coexist, opportunities and risks are intertwined. If this meme launchpad, which is closest to trading, closest to gambling, and closest to volatility, really issued coins, will it be the saviour of the depleted market, or the last cut that will never look back?

answer may lie in its valuation logic and market pulse.

Attack on Pump.fun, is it worth 4 billion?

If it is really according to the coin issuance plan disclosed by Blockworks, PUMP's FDV is around $4 billion, is it worth this price? We may be able to explore the valuation logic with some data. According to public data, as of May this year, Pump.fun's annual revenue totalled 296 million. If it is estimated according to the same conditions, the annualised income is about 710 million (296.1 million ÷ 5× 12).

According to this revenue situation, from the perspective of traditional valuation methods, the price-to-sales ratio (P/S, valuation of 4 billion divided by annual revenue) is 5.63, which means that the market pays $5.63 per dollar of revenue, which is often used by traditional markets to measure growth, and DeFi projects such as Uniswap have similar values. If the PUMP token has the right to income dividends, let's say the token can share half of the revenue (350 million) and the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E, valuation divided by profit) is about 11.4, which is lower than the average for US technology stocks.

But the problem is that meme-related businesses don't really eat the traditional valuation set, and the valuation of meme launchpads is certainly related to revenue, but FOMO and market sentiment changes are even more significant.

Circle has a stable and compliant USDC business with an IPO valuation of $7.2 billion; However, Pump.fun 4 billion valuation corresponds to the No. 1 meme launch pad in the circle, and the valuation is more than half of Cicle's, which is indeed a bit unreasonable. Also, Pump.fun's income isn't too stable. At its worst, it was only about $110,000 a day.

from a monthly income of more than 100 million on November 2024, to a highlight of a daily income of 14 million on January 2, 2025, and then to a daily income of 110,700 on March 9 this year... The platform's revenue fluctuates nearly 100 times, highlighting the cyclical nature of the meme market.

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March 2025 revenue low, is actually the epitome of the evaporation of the meme market cap and the receding enthusiasm, an emotion-driven business with fragile revenues. But even so, there is never a shortage of supply for the platform. Pump.fun an average of 30,000 new tokens per day, accounting for half of the Solana DEX's trading volume. The constant flow of this token launch contrasts strongly with the mixed and mixed market sentiment, and you can be hard-pressed to find a stable anchor for its valuation.

Depleted market, the last cut?

Pump.fun is still attacking, whether it is the rumours of coin issuance, or the previous attempts to make their own AMM and innovate the live streaming function, it can be seen that the platform itself has not stood still. (See: Meme Ebb Ebb, Pump.fun Self-Help: Can PumpSwap Sustain Future Business?)

But the market in general, and the meme market in particular, seems to be a bit overwhelmed. The "drying up" of the market is already on the horizon. In December 2024, the overall market capitalisation of memes fell from 137 billion to 96 billion, and 40 billion evaporated. In 2025, Solana DEX trading volume will shrink by 20% compared to last year, most of the new tokens will quickly go to zero, and the life cycle will be further shortened, and PVP will be hellish.

Occasionally, there are golden dogs to support the field, but it is difficult to regain the grand occasion of the year. Retail investors have shifted from fanatical chasing to wait-and-see, and community discussions are full of fatigue. The market is hungry for a new narrative - the next wave of AI, stablecoins, crypto asset reserves of listed companies... It's not a high-valuation gamble on the old platform.

At the same time, Pump.fun's past is frowned upon. In 2024, the platform will sell the earned SOL for USDC several times; And January's data also shows that Pump.fun has sold about $182 million in SOL tokens since January this year. Earn SOL and suck up liquidity; Selling SOL, how much affects price and confidence.

is currently a general scepticism about Pump Tokens, such as researcher Haotian who said, "It's hard to imagine a MEME launch platform that outperforms most DeFi blue-chip protocols in terms of valuation. This may be both a sign of the maturity of the MEME economy and a signal flare for the collapse of industry values."

Issuance of Coins for Financing, What Will Pump.fun Do After Getting the Money, Can It Bring Essential Gameplay Upgrades to the Meme Market? From the current synthesis of information, the answer seems to be no; Not to mention that in the last month, a variety of launch pads have actually emerged, all of which are challenging the status of the former launch pad in their own ways.

The last brother, or the last cut? Until the answer is revealed, it is right to be cautious.

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