I think positioning on the most consensus based exchange is important to look at, and the beauty of Hyperliquid is that the data is public, visible, and live
Admittedly, the mistakes I've been making as of late is getting great entries, but not taking caution when the herd starts to migrate over, crowded trades in choppy markets tend to get blown out, and I tend to roundtrip some uPnL by not taking this signal more seriously
Take XPL vs PUMP here for instance, despite a 50% drawdown from ATH's, XPL still has extremely skewed positioning, participants are still interested, whether underwater or not, and the trade simply has too many eyes. This is not the case for PUMP, positioning is quite balanced, which leaves room for a bid to step in before the herd comes back to graze
For a good value buy, you need people to lose interest, pivot away, then when nobody is looking, let it slowly creep up until one day the herd realizes it's closing in on ATH's and pivots over, which gives you the last bit of exit velocity before you use them as EL
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this is also basically saying that, I would love to get long XPL again, but you need people to lose interest, whether forcefully or time based capitulation
end scene
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