#ARB is in a weekly convergence pattern, and once it successfully breaks upward, the target for the rise is at 0.7625.
But as I have always emphasized: analysis is static, while the market is dynamic. You can analyze the structure, but you can never predict whether the market will cooperate.
Since I have already entered at a key position + key signal, the next operational logic is very simple: set the stop loss at 0.4820 and bet on whether the breakout is valid.
以 #ARB 为例，今天上涨虽然很猛，但结构上只是刚刚回到日线级别的多头逻辑，还称不上新趋势启动。
这点很关键，因为很多人看到短期涨幅大，就下意识认为行情很强，怕错过。但实战中，真正决定行情空间和延续性的，不是涨了多少，而是价格结构有没有完成切换。
结构一旦建立，多头才有延续的基础。否则哪怕一口气涨了20%、30%，也可能是从底部反弹、空头回补、流动性推动等多种短期力量构成，无法简单理解为趋势确立。
所以在判断行情强弱时，顺序一定要放对：先看结构有没有成立，再看幅度表现，不要本末倒置。
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