Alright, so we are getting another round of market top tweets, so let me go through a few data points I'm looking at. If you remember this chart I posted in early 2025, the key to finding a top is going to be directly related to the NFP prints. Once they start going into negative, then that's a trigger for hedge fund bros to start derisking out of their risk assets. Once the labor market continues to deteriorate, we get faster rate cuts as a reactionary action by the Fed, and at some extreme, we find the bear market bottom during this process (maybe when they start QE as a safety measure). But if the post-COVID market is anything to go by, I don't think it's going to be as simple this time. I have skewed odds towards these weak labor numbers being a short-term issue, and when the NFP print rebounds higher, we should see risk assets fly again as a reaction to positioning and sentiment. IMO, these are short-term issues largely influenced by tariff shock, and I don't expect tariffs...
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