⚡️ According to CME data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is already as high as 99.4%.
Interest rate cuts are already on the string, and they are certain.
At 8:30 tonight, the non-farm payroll data was released, and the market's expectation for the unemployment rate in August was 4.3%.
If the data is bad enough for the unemployment rate to climb further to 4.4% or higher, we may see a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut in September!
Unless the new employment data is extremely strong, it needs to reach more than 130,000 people, accompanied by an upward revision of the previous value, which may completely dispel the market's expectations of interest rate cuts.
📈隐隐约约有点起势的感觉了，能不能打破万恶的9月魔咒？
看看这个月有哪些值得关注的事件——
1⃣ 9月5日美国公布8月非农数据，很重要，前值为7.3万人，预期值7.5万人。
2⃣9月10日美国公布CPI数据，更能反映真实通胀趋势，很重要。如果 CPI 数据走软，BTC更有上升动能。
3⃣9月17日美联储利率决议，鲍威尔讲话是决定市场预期的核心锚点，不出意外是要开始降息了。
4⃣代币解锁潮，SUI、Arbitrum、Aptos等将释放超过 45 亿美元的代币，短期山寨市场可能带来抛压。
5⃣9月26日有季度合约与期权交割，注意这个节点，可能会有剧烈换仓。
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