I think there are some parts to understand Pendle’s moat that’s missing. Here’s how I see its real competitive advantage. The core challenge is that Pendle's structure naturally isolates its markets and user activity. This limits the kind of compounding network effect seen in other platforms. 🟱 Asset Isolation: Each token creates its own distinct network. For example, users interested in USDe don’t really interact with or benefit those interested in sKaito, as their goals and liquidity pools are separate. 🟱 Expiry Date Silos: Liquidity is further divided by maturity dates. A USDe token expiring in one month exists in a completely different market from one expiring in several months. While I understand there are easy ways to migrate positions at expiry, but this is a UX thing because the same dollar cannot be used in both maturities. 🟱 Rivalry by Design: Economic rivalry exists via pricing: as PT price rises, implied/fixed APY falls for later buyers, so earlier purchases can reduce the available fixed yield for subsequent entrants, consistent with Pendle’s fixed/implied APY mechanics. This structure means more users don't automatically make the platform better for everyone else. So if the network effect isn't driven by users attracting more users, what is actually working? The answer seems to be a combination of switching costs and deep liquidity, which together create a powerful "B2B" model. If you examine the USDe holdings in Pendle, you'll see that major protocols like Morpho and AAVE hold a significant portion of PTs (@ 60%). The complex looping strategies they employ create stickiness because moving those assets is a significant hassle. While they aren't permanently locked in, the friction to liquidate is high enough to encourage them to stay. Interestingly enough, if you look at the top assets in AAVE and Morpho, they are also Ethena related. This means Pendle's and downstream protocols have the same alignment in terms of PMF! This is where Pendle’s real strength emerges. The platform's deep liquidity makes it a valuable building block for these large lending protocols. The ability to support their complex yield farming strategies is far more precious than any retail-focused rewards. Ultimately, Pendle scales by onboarding high-quality assets that attract deep liquidity, which in turn facilitates integrations with major DeFi protocols. If you look at the top assets on Pendle today, they are heavily centered around Ethena. IMO if there are strong indication of Pendle planning to go this route, I think it will do very well. You can predict this via a leading indicator to find more assets that are likely to be adopted by Morpho and AAVE. Maybe RWAs some day...
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