We’ve spoken with a lot of trader types while building Melee. While they naturally understand traditional prediction markets, many struggle to grasp the dynamic at the intersection of prediction markets and memes.
Memes map to opinion markets, not traditional prediction markets.
This is much more about culture and audience than about needing a global oracle to measure worldwide sentiment.
No one really cares if an opinion is universally held. What matters is whether your counterparty is wrong, and whether you can prove it to the relevant audience.
If something can be objectively measured, it’s no longer an opinion or “meme” market. It collapses back into a traditional prediction market.
A lot of talk recently on prediction markets vs. perpetuals vs. memecoins.
They all serve different purposes, and I'm not convinced it's winner take all.
Perpetuals - pure expression of speculation with leverage + liquidity
Prediction markets - markets as truth machines
Memecoins - financialized culture (no binary bet)
If you want prediction markets to overlap with memes you need some pricing mechanism (oracle) on sentiment/relevance which is actually a very difficult problem to solve.
I do think prediction markets are a lot more digestible for consumers than memecoins, but that's a gap that's solvable.
An interesting intersection could be prediction markets for on-chain markets (e.g., will fartcoin be above $1 by XYZ?) and using direct on-chain data to settle markets on expiry.
Lots of cool things to build.
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