Orange Evening Interpretation 8.18 The market has given us another roller coaster ride over the weekend, with BTC pulling back from last week's high of 124K to testing support near 115K, ETH also slipping from a strong level close to 4800 to below 4400, and the overall crypto market capitalization has shrunk by nearly 5%, directly falling from the 4 trillion mark last month. Altcoins are even worse, DOGE's golden cross signal was overwhelmed by sellers as soon as it appeared, the price fell below the key support, evaporating more than 10% of the gain within 24 hours, this wave of pullback made many leeks who held the market on the weekend call out that they were hurt, but from the percentage point of view, it is actually not too extreme, but the bull market that everyone expected was interrupted, and it felt like another "small episode" of the treasury bull. The main driver of this wave of decline is macro uncertainty, the PPI data on the eve of the weekend greatly exceeded expectations, and the rise in raw material prices directly ignited inflation concerns, which the market interpreted as the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is basically in vain, and now CME data shows that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged has risen to 15.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points has dropped to 84%, which is very different from last week's optimistic pricing, resulting in a decline in the linkage between US stocks and the currency market. In addition, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is scheduled to open this Thursday (8.22), Powell will speak to guide the policy direction in the second half of the year, and the market is expected to focus on the path of interest rate cuts and successors, but the voices of Fed officials opposing significant easing over the weekend have allowed everyone to enter the mode of "waiting for boots to land" in advance, and the US retail sales data (expected 0.6%) and China's unemployment rate (expected 5%) to open on Monday will also be the focus, and if the data is hawkish, the correction may continue. On the one hand, Gemini Exchange submitted an IPO filing and aimed at listing on Nasdaq, but the decline in revenue exposed the competitive pressure in the industry; On the other hand, an old Ethereum ICO wallet moved 1.5 million ETH over the weekend (the original purchase price was only $104), and on-chain inflows increased, but this also triggered selling concerns and pushed ETH under pressure in the short term. Although BTC has risen 32% this year, it fell below 116K over the weekend as Fed easing expectations weakened, and the hope of the whole village Tom Lee insisted on being bullish on 150K. In addition, the #USELESS of the Solana ecosystem briefly pulled the market after the launch of Coinbase, but the overall copycat festival continued over the weekend, and low-capitalization projects such as @virtuals_io had KOL orders, but they remained sideways, highlighting the problem of liquidity dilution. This week's Jackson Hole annual meeting will be key, if Powell releases a dovish signal and confirms the path of interest rate cuts in September, BTC may quickly rebound back above 120K, and ETH is also expected to retest 4500; However, if the annual meeting emphasizes inflation risks, the market may continue to be bored and volatile, and trading volume will shrink to wait for the boots to land. Although the tripartite talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine over the weekend are high-specific, Trump expects a 25% probability of failure, which may affect sentiment through tweets. In general, this wave of correction is a normal respite in the bull market, and it is reasonable to speculate that there will be a slight repair at the beginning of next week, but don't rush to stud, wait for the macro to be clear before moving, and the chain will be deeply cultivated + strong currency matching, and everything will develop for the better. Speaking of the altcoin market, $link broke out strongly over the weekend, rising all the way from 20 to 25, and successfully brought up the oracle sector, $api 3 $band have flown up, you will find that since the start of the ETH market, the currency market has indeed developed in the direction of returning to the altcoin season, and the previous DEFI L2 L1 platform coins have begun to appear in a rotation market, and it is at the sector level, which is a relatively rare market in this round of bull market, and it was basically in RWA AI meme before These three tracks have risen back and forth, other sectors have little capital attention, and now the narrative is developing in the direction of traditional copycats, the rise of this wave of link is very similar to the early stage of DEFI summer, when link was also the first to return in value, because all DEFI protocols need link to feed the price, and this round because of the RWA and stablecoin bills, it can be expected that more assets will be on the chain in the future, since the chain must use oracles, This is why the link has a huge imagination space, and this is why I liquidated most of the altcoins in the first few months, and all of them were replaced with shorts, originally the development direction of the currency market is institutional level, and institutions will only choose the safest protocol, so the plasma with an institutional background will choose to go online on AAVE, and now $comp this kind of dragon two is basically lying flat, I predict that the increase of the leader on the same track in this round will be completely hanging the dragon two and the dragon three, this round will play the dragon, and there is no need to look at anything else.