Looking at the polymarket data, a 25 bps rate cut in September is highly likely. So what specific impacts will there be on the market before and after the rate cut? In fact, it can't be said that a rate cut will definitely lead to an increase; it also needs to be considered in conjunction with the economic fundamentals, which is the game between the market's concerns about recession and the benefits of liquidity easing. In this case, although the non-farm data doesn't look good, the overall economic fundamentals are still quite resilient. The biggest risk now is that both the US stock market and cryptocurrencies have already reached high asset prices. In the short term, look at the 12-hour line of BTC. If it successfully builds a bottom below and breaks through the pressure line in the chart, it will continue to rise near the previous high. If it doesn't build a bottom, it won't be able to break through the pressure line and will continue to adjust downwards until it successfully builds a bottom. One possibility is a second retest of the CME gap, inducing shorts to let retail investors cut losses, while the big players accumulate chips, and then rise. So in the near term, it should first induce a long position before crashing down for a second retest.