35 years ago I signed a lease for a 2000 square foot 3 bedroom apartment in the heart of the upper east side for $5000 per month. It was an older building with a doorman and no other amenities and was at least 25 years old and looking like it in terms of fit and finish. Today I co-signed a lease for my youngest son for a 1000 square ft1 bedroom apartment in Greenpoint Brooklyn for roughly the same rent. It's brand new and has great fit and finish and amenities. Add up all the factors and I'd venture to guess that prices have essentially doubled in the past 35 years. CPI isn't what hardly anyone actually experiences but it has gone up 2.5x in 35 years. See chart. Otoh cash in Tbills rolled for those same 35 years has grown by 2.43x see chart. Which begs the question (caveated with CPI is just one form of inflation) It appears purchasing power over the last 35 years has declined by 2.43/2.5-1=2.8% or annualized over 35 years at 8bp of Debasement per year. Anyway it's sort of interesting. My priors would have said much more Debasement has occurred. Am I cherry picking. Yes because of the co-signing last night and my priors signing. But I did it blindly without trying to optimize Gold has outperformed cash (and cpi at 3.5% compounded annually and had a total return of 6.2% so another measure of debasement might feel more "correct". Anyway the question on my mind is in a world where USD stays around for the next 50 years and gold and BTC operate as a debasement hedge what's the right debasement expectation over the next 10 years. One could probably argue for a fiat collapse which would cause a massive outperformance. Or look at the past 35 years and say gold has outperformed as a debasement hedge because CPI is too low or massive debasement odds have increased (both valid imho) or one could argue that debasement odds is overstated and Gold should converge back to equal CPI return or expected cash return. Lastly one could argue that the 35 years of outperformance of 3.5% over cash is the best extrapolation for the next 20 years. Personally I think it's 2.5-3.5% debasement over cash returns for the next 20 years but who knows. Anyway this is a long way of saying owning gold is an excellent and necessary portfolio hedge with and an expected nominal return of 7% Depending on your point of view regarding adoption and replacement vs gold BTC should deliver the same return or perhaps a combined BTC gold portfolio should deliver the same return. Anyway 20 year target for Gold and BTC for me is something like 12,900 for gold and 441,000 For BTC. Take it for what it's worth but I think that's the absolute best one can expect unless the USD fails and the country goes to hell. That more bullish outcome may excite people but I think it's an absolute joke to think it will. Also if it does your BTC and GOLD will be taken by force/Taxes/Bans/ Capital controls by the military hunta regime that exists then.

What's going to be hilarious about this post is I put a target of 441,000 on BTC in 20 years and all I will get is hate from bullish BTC maxis.