1/3 Thoughts on $PUMP
PUMP trade feels like a good setup, but token price action, driven by incessant selling from ICO participants, paired with retreating fundamentals, and value leakage to comps (bonk, jupiter, raydium) has created a down only chart. This down only chart has burned a lot of the believers, and hence, it is difficult to see who the next marginal buyer will be.
2/3
To make an investment case for PUMP, you have to believe three things:
1. Price action is more a reflection of flows than it is of mkt share and value leakage to comps. The first 3 weeks was net selling pressure created by private sale participants.
2. The marginal buyer of the token will be buybacks. If you believe these buybacks can scale effectively in the wake of dwindling market share, then there's likely an opportunity here.
3. Market share volatility is only a temporary concern.
3/3
Things we know:
- Onchain data tells us that those that had to sell, have likely sold almost all of their tokens. (Largest pvt. sale participant's PUMP holdings chart below)
- There's rumours of a volume incentive program - if true, this could boost volumes, fees and buybacks. This could easily boost volumes 2-3x, which boosts buybacks 2-3x. If they start to win back mkt. share, sentiment starts to improve, demand starts to arise.
- If they earn ~$4 in fees for every $1 in PUMP spent, this program will be *extremely* successful.
- Buybacks operating at ~22% to 25% of total fees, absolute fees still ~$500k/day
- 12 month run-rate revenues still over $270M (trading at ~10x P/E to this)
- Balance sheet with close to $2B in cash
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