With the push from Crypto Week at the White House and the stablecoin bill, BTC has broken its all-time high, reaching $123,000. If we consider the previous exchange rate to the dollar, it is already close to 1 million RMB.
At the threshold of 1 million RMB, it is estimated that many retail investors will be trading hands. To break through the $120,000 to $150,000 range, a larger catalyst is needed.
In the short term, the buying momentum for BTC is weakening (over the next few weeks to a month).
1. After two single-day net inflows exceeding $1 billion last week for the BTC ETF, there was a slight net outflow this Monday.
2. OG miners sold 80,000 BTC in the OTC market last week. Even if calculated at a 10% discount, that’s 10,000 BTC, resulting in a sudden selling pressure of 8 billion, which is over 30% more than the ETF's highest monthly net inflow of 6.4 billion.
3. The previously anticipated JDT ETF of 2.5 billion has already built a position of 2 billion, leaving little firepower to deploy in the short term.
4. MicroStrategy has begun a new round of preferred stock issuance, raising about 500 million in funds.
5. Altcoins are blooming in two ways: the educated are buying shell companies in the US stock market to exploit the overflow of liquidity, while the less sophisticated are directly pushing prices up aggressively. With the potential benefits of DeFi brought by stablecoins and Li Hua's series of calls, expectations for the altcoin season have increased, diverting purchasing power away from BTC.
Waiting for a small dip.
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