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BTC+2.64%
SOL+8.35%
ETH+11.61%
USDC-0.05%
DAI-0.05%
ARB+8.26%
KAITO+12.70%
cash is the ugliest position in a bull market until the music stops and you’re the only one left holding a chair the art of holding cash when everyone else is chasing fireworks
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most of crypto twitter calls you a coward the moment your portfolio is >50% stables they’re wrong, and i’ll prove it
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> 63% parked in stables > 15% already in $pump > 12% dead-weight $eth > 6.5% riding $kaito points > rest spread in dust i’m not here to clip +20 % while btc can sneeze me -70% i’m here for the 2021 rerun: public sales every week, 50-100x on day-one vouchers so until that window opens: • stables stay stables – dry powder for the first legit sale • $eth sleeps until we get the staking etf headline. if it pops i rotate, if not it just sits • next ticket i’m eyeing → $met (@MeteoraAG ) if the raise is fair. @LineaBuild sale right after if they copy arbitrum playbook • no romance with mid-caps. either triple digit roi or i skip simple rule: if the fdv at ico means a 2× move needs 3 billion of new money, i’m out i’d rather earn zero in usdc than chase +20 % and pray btc doesn’t cough wake me when the sale calendar looks like q1-21 again
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1. why dry powder matters more this cycle 2021’s “buy anything and wait” meta is dead. the arena got bigger: > funds rotate capital faster > narratives expire in weeks, not months > airdrop hunters nuke charts the second tokens unlock sitting 60% in usdc today isn’t apathy, it’s optionality. every panic wick, every forced liquidation, every “rug” headline is a pending limit order waiting for your click the guy who mocked stables on monday becomes your liquidity exit by friday
2. the three psychological traps of high-cash stacks a) boredom guilt watching a green candle without you onboard triggers fomo’s little cousin: 'idle guilt'. cure = track percentage drawdowns, not percentage run-ups history rewards entries on red weeks, not green ones b) timeline shaming - “he who hesitates is broke”. yes, twitter loves that quote. notice the loudest shouters never post their pnl cure = mute, focus, repeat
c) the perfect entry illusion cash hoarders often wait for 'the level of a lifetime' that never prints. cure = ladder scale-ins. if 50% of your capital is stables, deploy 10% at each 15-20% dump you’ll never nail bottoms, but you’ll always be in the arena
3. a cash-heavy framework that actually compounds step 1: anchor with one high-conviction core mine is $HYPE. maybe yours is $sol or $btc. keep it at 20% no matter what. reduces analysis paralysis
step 2: carve out 10% thesis tickets right now mine are: > @HyperliquidX > @KaitoAI > degen meme rotation ( @pumpdotfun ) strict stop = minus 30% from entry or 3 weeks of flat price, whichever comes first
step 3: preserve the holy 60% in usdc/usdt/dai rules: > yield farm if apy > treasury +4% > @aztecnetwork or @RAILGUN_Project mixer once a quarter for fresh addresses > allocate to new ico only if fdv/annual revenue < 30
4. when to flip the script and go risk-on - look for three lights to turn green at once: - btc dominance stalls for 10 consecutive days - two new ico’s post >3x on day one and hold 2x a week later funding flips negative across major perp pairs that combo hasn’t appeared since q1 2024. when it does, drop cash ratio from 60 to 30 in a single shot anything less is fighting trend momentum with water pistols
5. What history says about staggered entry vs full send Back-tests on ETH from 2017-2024, monthly data: You give up 3% annual CAGR for half the stress. Most won’t, I will. *Pain = average days underwater / 30
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6. closing riff holding a fat stack of stablecoins doesn’t mean you’re bearish. it means you’re paying yourself in patience eth 4k? hyper 75? rekt 500m cap? maybe stay liquid, stay lethal
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some call it day 1 of the bear nah. we just slipped from price-discovery into a range. directionless chop before the next leg this is still the opening chapter of a new bull. new metas, new narratives, different set of winners up only is dead but up eventual is alive: $eth → $4k? $hype → $75? $rekt → $500m mcap? possible until the range breaks, stack dry powder, track the fresh themes, stay nimble
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My fav ct guys / @belizardd @DeRonin_ @kem1ks @splinter0n @terra_gatsuki @0xAndrewMoh @KingWilliamDefi @0xJok9r @0xDefiLeo @cryppinfluence @banditxbt @the_smart_ape @AlphaFrog13 @0xTindorr @CryptoVonDoom @eli5_defi @CryptoGideon_ @0x99Gohan @rektdiomedes
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