After $PUMP, it’s obvious that liquidity and sentiment have been significantly consumed, and the possibility of a tail-end market is decreasing.
Currently, besides Bitcoin and memes, the only narrative being speculated on is ETH micro-strategy. As long as companies like $SBET still have a premium, they can continuously finance and issue more to achieve the flywheel effect of [increasing Ethereum reserves → increasing Ethereum demand, price rises → stock price rises → continue buying Ethereum].
Most altcoins can only save themselves. Tokens like $HYPE, which have a moat, can also play the ETF + micro-strategy narrative, while tokens without real revenue can only keep riding the hype and hope for speculative funds to provide exit liquidity.
Distilling the false from the true is one of the few positive trends in this cycle.
The series of trades in the first half of the year after TRUMP were mediocre, barely outperforming the rise of Bitcoin. In the second half, I plan to switch to a Bitcoin standard to avoid missing the main surge that could hit 150,000.
In the short term, my intuition suggests we will enter a tail-end market dominated by emotions, transitioning from slow rises and sharp drops to an upward sprint. I expect that betting on blue-chip altcoins like DeFi will outperform Bitcoin, and after tokens like $AAVE break their previous highs, profits will be shifted to Bitcoin for defense.
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