Shower thoughts on Hyperliquid ($HYPE) > Literally in the shower typing this on my phone Generally stray from chipping in on single names directly and everyone has thrown in their hats already so this may not be too novel. Also I’m not the strongest when it comes to alt selection That being said - I see 3 simple tailwinds for HYPE. My punchline is of that today’s estimates that I have reviewed (2-4B FDV), I believe they are too conservative and that the run/rate should be closer to 8B+ FDV based on existing comps 1. I believe the Community has largely forgotten on what a good linear executed airdrop looks like where the express purpose of participation is not simply to farm an allocation. That playbook has not been recreated once yet truly in 2024. Furthermore given the “success” of HLP, most traders are simply down money and likely to exchange for fiat wealth upfront. This is sufficient incentive to test the lower bound valuation right away. Although it may appear consensus that HL will do well, I believe that in reality most people intend to sell their allocation 2. Given the ease in comparing readily available metrics (volume, TVL) I believe we have over emphasized Hyperliquid’s similarity to trading and LP protocols. Over time the ecosystem should experience a re-rating effect (that we have seen on APE, DEGEN, etc) that comes from future sinks that are HYPE-specific 3. What underscores this launch uniquely and what I have not seen being discussed elsewhere is the cannibalization of flows from competing EVM adjacent L1s. In the last several months there have been OTC deals allowing liquid funds and participants reduced entries into what are now very bloated valuations relative to TVL and vibrancy of ecosystem. Most of these were designed around forming a laggard bet around “the next SOL killer.” This showcases 2 things: a) appetite to recycle the 0 to 100 playbook and b) a lack of fluency around what truly forms sustained capital The emergence of HyperLiquid is a shift that everyone must decide at the same time - instead of on a staggered, private timeline - where they want to position. Therefore “new money” may not not needed to buoy resilience as the flow of funds may come from existing faucets today At the end of the day there will be beta to majors so all numbers used here assume the current market environment of ~100K BTC et al. This can be adjusted based on health elsewhere